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  • EAST ASIAN PATHWAYS TOWARD DEMOCRACY: A QUALITATIVE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF “THE THIRD WAVE”

  • Shinan Hao, Qiqi Gao
  • Journal:
    Journal of East Asian Studies / Volume 16 / Issue 2 / July 2016
    Published online by Cambridge University Press:
    06 June 2016, pp. 239-260
    Print publication:
    July 2016
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  • What drove the East Asian tide of democratization during the “Third Wave?” Instead of focusing on a single-factor explanation, we perform qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) on fourteen cases in the region of East Asia from 1980 to 2000 and find three parallel pathways: (1) overthrow model, which features the positive effects of mass mobilization against authoritarianism under a deinstitutionalized authoritarian regime; (2) urban pressure model that works under an institutionalized authoritarian regime; and (3) inside-out model, in which democratization is triggered by the joint forces of domestic and international conditions under both types of regimes. These results demonstrate that the authoritarian status quo ante is an important determinant of democratic transitions.