There is often a need to respond quickly to assess the likely implications of policy changes. Here, an equilibrium displacement model is adapted to study international bans on U.S. beef. An equilibrium displacement model offers a convenient way of quickly predicting the effects of supply and demand shocks. The equilibrium displacement model used here has an international sector, which allows the study of issues that past models with only a domestic sector could not. The estimated welfare loss of U.S. beef producers, due to both Japanese and South Korean bans after the discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the United States, is $565.31 million.

Moratoria on international trade are frequently used to protect threatened species but few studies have examined their effectiveness in allowing populations to recover. We present population data collected before and after a moratorium on trade in the citron-crested cockatoo Cacatua sulphurea citrinocristata, a distinctive subspecies of the yellow-crested cockatoo endemic to Sumba, Indonesia. Before legal trade ceased in 1993 numbers of cockatoos leaving Sumba averaged c. 1,600 per year, and the 1992 population, estimated at 3,200, surely could not sustain such a level of trade. We surveyed cockatoos in four forest patches on Sumba in 1992, and then surveyed these same forest patches 10 years later, using the same field methods. Forest cover within the four patches was similar between years. We recorded a statistically significant increase in overall cockatoo density, from c. 2 birds per km2 in 1992 to >4 per km2 in 2002. Group sizes were also larger in 2002 than in 1992. Densities at two forest sites had increased considerably, at another the population was stable, but at one small forest patch a small population in 1992 had probably decreased. While the population has made a modest recovery, densities remain low compared to cockatoo populations elsewhere. Illegal trade is known to persist and its volume should be monitored closely.