Anthony Seldon introduces the concept of the Effect series, the key questions and the fourteen wasted years accusation. This Effect book will be the eighth in the long line of academic and historical analyses dating back over fifty years of history to 1970 – and it builds on the conclusions and methodology of previous works in the series. One of these, The Coalition Effect (Cambridge, 2015), encompassed five of the years in question – allowing reflections to be made on the authors’ arguments in that volume, and for the impact to be judged in a longer time frame of government.

Any fair evaluation of the Conservative effect (2010-14) must be cognisant of the context. Tom Egerton’s chapter will place the Conservative premierships in the six external shocks Britain faced, beginning with the Great Financial Crash and the Eurozone Crisis, before the impact of Brexit (and a debate over its external and structural causes), Covid, the Russo-Ukrainian War and the inflation crisis. How did each government succeed or fail in the face of compounding shocks? What opportunities and constraints emerged as a result? Only through an analysis of a decade of poly-crisis, and in the perspective of wider political change, can we make a conclusion on the question of ‘fourteen wasted years’.

The victory of Cameron’s Conservatives in 2010 ushered in the idea of a new Conservative Party, repairing both image and electoral prospects. However, this chapter will examine to what extent that change occurred, and how much the Conservatives were united or divided by the same older questions of policy and ideology – particularly on Europe and the economy. The chapter will also analyse the development of the party’s structures, power and personnel, and contemplate what effects any change may have had.

This chapter re-examines tie-beam trusses and argues that their invention arose from the woodworking techniques and tools honed in the construction of Bronze and Iron Age palafitte houses (pile dwellings). Showing that the earlier type of architecture developed in response to particular environmental conditions, it establishes that early builders had extensive knowledge of the potential of their raw materials and how they could be engineered. Out of this came the truss as a refinement in wooden roof structures that was able to counter the side loads of heavy tiled roofs when the latter came into use during the seventh century BC. Through its eventual use in the sizeable roofs of basilicas in the fourth century AD, the truss represents a form of woodworking expertise that connects architecture in Italy from the Bronze Age through to Late Antiquity.

The method of Lower Bound analysis is often taught as a curious equilibrium response or with strict adherence to mathematical formalism. The exact behaviour of a truss loaded to failure is presented first so that the character of a Lower Bound approach may be compared later; in particular, why ductility is vital for valid equilibrium solutions and for redistributing bar forces under increasing load.