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1 results

  • 2 - Incredible Certitude

  • from Part I - Characterizing Uncertainty
  • Charles F. Manski, Northwestern University, Illinois
  • Book:
    Discourse on Social Planning under Uncertainty
    Published online:
    02 January 2025
    Print publication:
    09 January 2025, pp 35-64

  • Summary

    Most of this chapter documents the prevalence of incredible certitude. Section 2.1 calls attention to the core role that certitude has played in major streams of religion and philosophy. Section 2.2 describes conventional certitude in official economic statistics reported by federal statistical agencies in the United States. Section 2.3 discusses dueling certitudes in research on criminal justice. Section 2.4 documents wishful extrapolation from medical research to patient care. Section 2.5 remarks on the complementary practice of sacrificing relevance for certitude, again using medical research to illustrate.

    The closing part of chapter poses and assesses arguments that seek to explain incredible certitude. Section 2.6 discusses psychological arguments asserting that expression of incredible certitude in policy analysis is necessary because the public is unable to cope with uncertainty. Section 2.7 considers arguments asserting that incredible certitude is useful or necessary as a device to simplify collective decision making.