9 - Conclusions

Summary

There is little sign of a new social contract developing that would deliver a more equitable power structure and income/wealth distribution. On the contrary, power and wealth have become more concentrated. The elite seem to be tone deaf. There are too many parallels with the runup to the French Revolution of 1789.

There is even less sign of a contract between humanity and nature, of mankind respecting nature and acknowledging the role of ecosystems as a fundamental factor underpinning the survival of the species. Humans still think that artificially engineered instruments are better than nature.

Despite the twelve fundamental challenges, the world is still ruled very much by mindsets forged during the industrial age and designed to deliver economic growth.

The future, up to 2035, based on what we know now about demography, technology and human behaviour, looks like this.

The world will become divided into regions, the three most important of which are Asia, the Western hemisphere, and Europe and its adjacent areas. The leading regional nation or nations will build their own technology—internet, 5G and such—energy grids and currency area, forcing other countries in the region into this strong economic, technological, cultural and political framework. This game is already visible for the United States and China. It will be difficult and expensive to do business outside the region, which points to a more compact supply chain.

Some elements of globalization will be maintained, but global institutions (the IMF, World Bank and WTO) and the global rule of law (for example, the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea) will wither away. Such a global model means that the world will stay entrenched in the current political and economic thinking without starting to shift gear and tackle the deep underlying challenges. Shortterm economic profit will continue to control the actions of policymakers, as will the traditional power game.

The twelve fundamental challenges will be talked about but they will not be fundamentally addressed. Tepid national and international efforts will be insufficient to halt the threat they pose for civilization, or even less to set the course for a better world.