9 - Catching Up to America in a Post–COVID-19 World

Summary

Will China catch up to America, and if so, when? Will the superpower conflict with the United States derail or at least significantly slow down China’s rise in a post–COVID-19 world? What does China’s further rise mean for the rest of the world? These are the questions addressed in the final chapter. It first assesses China’s potential growth rate over the next thirty years under the assumption that geopolitical challenges will not have a significant effect on China’s long-term growth trend. The chapter then discusses the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and geopolitics on China’s growth prospects. The chapter projects that China’s economy will most likely surpass that of the United States by 2030 and possibly double that of the United States in 2050. It is argued that geopolitics will not have significant impact on China’s economic prospects, and that China’s rise can benefit the rest of the world particularly through its increasing contribution to global technological progress. Because China’s rise appears irreversible, the chapter concludes that we are entering a truly multipolar world, and peaceful coexistence is no longer an option but a necessity.