12 - How Will Najib Play His Cards?

Summary

Rumours that snap elections will be called shortly have grown intense in Malaysia. No doubt, these have been floating around for quite some time, and like forecasts of rain, or even predictions about the world ending; sooner or later, the soothsayers will prove right.

I remember the same excitement throughout 2003 about a possible snap election. It turned out that then-Premier Abdullah Badawi did announce snap elections in mid-February 2004, more than a year before he needed to hold polls. As we now know, where he was concerned, that was a bad mistake.

But what is different this time around is that the combinations of elections that can be held are many, and all of them hold different significance for the coalitions and parties involved. In Malaysia, state elections do not need to be held at the same time as parliamentary elections.

Traditionally, the two tiers of elections were conducted simultaneously, because few state assemblies were outside federal control. In recent times, Kelantan has been the effective exception.

In principle, Parti Islam SeMalaysia (PAS) could have held state elections at any time it saw fit. That had, however, never happened for the simple reason that should it hold elections separate from federal elections, all the cannons of the Barisan Nasional (BN) would have been freely directed at it. That was, and is, a scary prospect for PAS.

Holding state elections while the BN was busy campaigning throughout the country at the same time had, therefore, always been a comfortable choice to make.

The situation today is quite different. As many as four state governments are not being ruled by the BN, and although two opposition parties are going through some bad patches at the moment, the BN itself is not as sturdy as recent by-election victories might suggest. Its component members have not been able to attract new members, and that is not an encouraging sign.

Reforms carried out by the BN have been superficial, which indicates that its appeal to urban voters is unlikely to have increased substantially. This means the Prime Minister will have to tread carefully if he does not wish for the result of a snap election to be as unpleasant a shock as that of March 8, 2008 was for Abdullah Badawi.