19 - Now's Not The Time For Najib To Call A GE

Summary

The results of the Sarawak state elections last weekend were extraordinary in the sense that one cannot strictly say that they were expected. Nor can one claim that they were unexpected.

This in truth reflects how uncertain things seemed during the 10 days of campaigning. Wishful thinking mixed freely with insider information, and strategic statements pretended to be pronouncements of facts. For example, Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, after taking over the campaigning, surprisingly stated that the two-thirds majority was under threat after his invitation to Sarawak's Chief Minister Taib Mahmud to declare that he would soon resign was rejected.

The final results were that the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) has retained power with their two-thirds majority intact; Mr Taib, Chief Minister since 1981, stayed rooted in his seat despite a strong international campaign alleging rampant abuses of power by his government; and rural support for the government remained steady despite the abject poverty in some areas.

At a superficial level, the status quo remains. However, a closer look reveals a strengthening of trends that have become increasingly obvious after the general election three years ago. For starters, where campaigning is concerned, the Opposition retains the initiative, having the oh-so-easy advantage of pointing the finger at bad governance on the part of BN parties. This has made it difficult for BN campaigners to draw or excite crowds. Distributing goodies and goodie bags of various shapes and size became the alternative - and effective - tactic instead.

Second, urban sympathies continue shifting away from the BN. This strongly suggests that the swelling population of young and educated city-dwellers will continue to gain in importance as the constituency of the future. This spells big trouble for dominant parties such as Mr Najib's UMNO and Mr Taib's PBB, and making inroads into this area will remain a great challenge for them.

As of now, we have a strange situation where both Kuala Lumpur, the main city in West Malaysia, and Kuching, the main city in East Malaysia, are practically fully represented by the opposition, excepting one seat in Kuala Lumpur. This trend is evident in many other urban centres as well.

Weakening Model

Third, we are witnessing a steady weakening of the BN Model itself.