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14 - Length of time such civilizations release detectable signals into space, L, 1961 to the present

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 July 2015

By
Garry Chick
Edited by
Douglas A. Vakoch  and
Matthew F. Dowd
Foreword by
Frank Drake
Douglas A. Vakoch
Affiliation:
SETI Institute, California
Matthew F. Dowd
Affiliation:
University of Notre Dame, Indiana
Frank Drake
Affiliation:
SETI Institute, California
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Summary

Abstract

The final variable in Drake's equation for estimating the number of such civilizations in the Milky Way is L, the lifetime of communicating civilizations. Drake's initial estimate for L was 10,000 years, but others have suggested different values or even defined the variable differently. Unfortunately, for empirical information on how to estimate L, we have a sample of only one, ourselves. But even those data are incomplete, since our own technology that permits interstellar communication is less than 100 years old and there is no obvious end to our civilization in sight. So, we have not only no idea of what the value of L should be, we also have little idea of how to go about estimating it. Additionally, like each of the other variables in the equation, L is almost certainly the product of many other variables. Therefore, the first goal of this chapter is to examine efforts at estimating values for L since 1961, including how those estimates were developed. Second, I will consider the concept of civilization in order to determine if the historical study of earthly examples can inform us about L. Third, I will examine variables that might influence the value of L by analyzing lists of existential risks proposed by a sample of individuals and organizations. Finally, I summarize these lines of thought in order to determine if they can inform us regarding possible values of L.

Type
Chapter
Information
The Drake Equation
Estimating the Prevalence of Extraterrestrial Life through the Ages
 , pp. 270 - 297
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2015

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