Part V - Concluding Chapters

17 Knowns and Unknowns in African Buffalo Ecology and Management

H. H. T. Prins , D. Cornelis , A. Caron and P. Chardonnet

On Knowledge

The definition of ‘knowledge’ is ‘a justified true belief’. Philosophers of science took a few centuries to arrive at this definition. The reasoning on which it is based is that knowledge is a ‘belief’ because a belief is defined as ‘conviction of the truth of some statement’ and is related to the verb ‘to believe’, which means ‘to hold something as true’ or ‘to give credence that something is true’. Because science does not deal with revelations or their interpretation, the justification of holding a particular belief can only be found in evidence, which thus makes it a ‘true belief’. Finally, as many things are seen by people and taken as evidence (even if not true – think of Cold Fusion), the belief and the evidence for it must be ‘justified’. Justification is found in an entire corpus of other, related, evidence.

Ecologists have been studying the African buffalo in the wild for about 70 years. Before that time, most knowledge came from hunters, and with hindsight it is reasonable to assume that the information so gathered was often more closely related to storytelling than to what we consider science. Prins and Sinclair (2013) and Cornélis et al. (2014) provide good recent summaries of what we think we know about the African buffalo. New knowledge added since the publication of these works is reported in the different chapters of the present book. We dare to assert that with this book and all of the publications referred to in it, the African buffalo is now the best-known animal of all Bovidae, so even better known than the American bison (Bison bison), the European wisent (B. bonasus) or any antelope, wild sheep, or goat. Are there other terrestrial wild mammals that are better known than the African buffalo? We believe that two or three species can compete for that honour, namely the red deer (wapiti, American elk; Cervus elaphus), the white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and, perhaps, the mule deer (O. hemionus). The white-tailed deer is said to be the most studied large mammal in the world (Hewitt, 2011). Many books have been published on this species, but, like for the mule deer, most are on its management for hunting. However, the knowledge gathered on reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) (Leader-Williams, 1988; Forbes et al., 2006; Tryland and Kutz, 2019) and especially red deer has contributed much more to science, as exemplified by Clutton-Brock et al. (1982). The other mammal species that has been of great significance for science is the elephant seal (Mirounga angustirostris; Le Boeuf and Laws, 1994; Le Boeuf and Le Boeuf, 2021). Yet of all these species, the African buffalo may present the biggest challenge because of its intricate relationships with domestic cattle in its network of diseases and parasites.

However, after exulting and crowing about how good we, students of the African buffalo are and have been, we would like to identify the knowledge deficits that remain. Our aim is to bring our science of ‘nyatology’ (from ‘Nyati’ = buffalo in kiSwahili and other Bantu languages) to such a level that it morphs into deep-seated contributions to the theory of evolutionary ecology, behavioural ecology, functional ecology, disease ecology and, perhaps, biology. Too much of our ‘nyatology’ remains basically descriptive and is, at best, testing hypotheses derived from more general science. Yet we believe that this amazing species, comprising phenomenally robust and well-adapted individuals with a social organization so intricate that it approaches eusociality, has more in store for us to learn, and its students will be able to generate hypotheses that can be tested on other organisms. Indeed, the house mouse (Mus domesticus) or the fruit fly (Drosophila spp.) may be wonders of adaptation too, but they became model organisms probably more as historical accidents than because of their wonderful resistance against diseases, their enormous distribution associated with complicated clinal variations in (eco-)morphs and richness of genetic patterning, or their social organization. So, where are the knowledge deficits that we must fill? To identify the holes in our knowledge, we surveyed this book’s authors, who collectively may be the most knowledgeable group of scientists and practitioners concerning the African buffalo alive (Figure 17.1).

Figure 17.1 Four African lions about to kill a juvenile male of Cape African buffalo, Mana Pools National Park, Zimbabwe.

© Alexandre Caron.

Former Secretary of Defence of the United States of America Donald Rumsfeld once made a famous distinction between the different sorts of knowledge that one has. He said on 12 February 2002, ‘There are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns – the ones we don’t know we don’t know …it is the latter category that tends to be the difficult ones’. We scientists are very good at reporting on ‘known knowns’. This book and earlier publications such as those of Sinclair (1977), Prins (1996) and the many, many good papers on the African buffalo (check all references in this book) offer a wealth of information about what we know on African buffalo. However, what about the ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’? And we would like to add a category, namely, ‘unknown knowns’ – which we posit refers to sound scientific knowledge that appears to have been forgotten. Too many scientists do not read scientific papers that are older than 10 years or so, or they only read abstracts, and knowledge that used to be in the scientific domain thus tends to fall out of it. This is called ‘knowledge decay’. The term does not describe the process through which knowledge becomes outdated, but rather one through which knowledge is forgotten.

On purpose, we have not formulated ‘hypotheses’ in this chapter for several reasons. We believe that what we need most is ‘descriptive ecology’ and ‘natural history’ (see Prins and Gordon, 2014; Gordon and Prins, 2019), while the use of storylines (linked to the assessment of their plausibility) probably offers better heuristic tools to approach best understanding (see De Jong and Prins, 2023; Prins and Gordon, 2023). The following knowledge deficits were identified in a process of questioning the collective of authors who contributed to this book.

Known Unknowns – These Are the Next Research Questions Sitting in the Backs of Our Minds

These research issues represent, relatively speaking, low-hanging fruit – others already have given them much thought, allowing one to delve deeper. The following thoughts and ideas were shared among us, which we have collected under a suite of subsections.

Natural History, Climate Change and Conservation

1. 1. As compared to the Cape buffalo from the area ranging between Kenya and South Africa, precariously little is known about the buffalo ranging between Senegal and Sudan. Perhaps the only exception is the work of Cornélis et al. (2011), and only little is known on forest buffalo despite the work of especially Korte (see Cornélis et al., 2014) but also of others (e.g. Bekhuis et al., 2008).

2. 2. In a number of countries where African buffalo still occur or did occur in the recent past, the respective ‘departments of wildlife’ (whatever their name) are not allocated sufficient funds to survey animal populations on a regular basis. In some of these countries, trend analyses and/or population estimates are thus frequently not very reliable. Offtake quotas are ideally set on reliable and precise population estimates (from which reliable and trustworthy trends can be deduced), and thus may not be set correctly (see e.g. Hagen et al., 2014; Milner-Gulland and Shea, 2017; see also Pellikka et al., 2005; Morellet et al., 2007). Additionally, offtake quotas may be set on the wrong premise of population stability (Chapter 5). Does this uncertainty in the data and the application of the wrong models negatively impact some local populations of buffalo?

3. 3. The IPCC (2022) predicts that temperatures will rise in coming decades over much of the African buffalo’s range. Heatwaves are on the increase (ACSS, 2021), implying that heat stress for African buffalo (and other large mammals) may become severe. The search terms ‘heat stress’ associated with ‘cattle’ or ‘water buffalo’ yield thousands of publications. Much more research on the thermal ecology of the species is needed (see Hetem et al., 2009, 2010, 2013; Shrestha et al., 2012, 2014; Fuller et al., 2014, 2021; Strauss et al., 2016).

4. 4. Increasing CO₂ levels could lead to a strengthening of the woody layer, resulting in an inexorable march to a thicker tree layer competing strongly with the grass layer (e.g. Bond and Midgley, 2000; Kgope et al., 2010), although the simplicity of the mechanism has been contested (Gosling et al., 2022; Raubenheimer and Ripley, 2022). Regardless, many former grasslands in African savannas have densified. In extreme circumstances where grazing pressure is high and the grass layer is stressed, a drought pushes grazers such as buffalo into a marginal space for survival. Most past research findings may hence no longer be applicable.

5. 5. Even though there is much arm-waving about climate change and its impact, there is a significant lack of fundamental knowledge on the habitats of the African buffalo (in the Sahel, the savannas of East and Southern Africa, but also in the rainforests).

6. 6. What are the exact workings of the transcription of DNA, the translation of RNA and the functionality of proteins in relation to the development and physiology of the African buffalo? In cattle, much progress has been made (see e.g. Drackley et al., 2006; Beerda et al., 2008; Kirkpatrick, 2015; Cesar et al., 2016; Barshad et al., 2018). There are some intriguing findings by Van Hooft et al. (2007) that have yet to be clearly explained (Van Hooft et al., 2018). Indeed, many techniques are already in place (see e.g. Smitz et al., 2016) for tackling this.

7. 7. For the forest buffalo, there may be more unknowns than for the Cape buffalo. As shown elsewhere in this book, it appears as if the forest buffalo evolved later than the savanna buffalo. Yet there are many gaps in our knowledge concerning gene flow between the different forms. Too much credit is given to subjective assessments of horn forms or the proportions of calves with reddish coats versus blackish ones. The exchange of individuals between groups of forest buffalo is an identified knowledge gap.

Ecology

1. 1. Research is needed to understand the causal factors underlying behavioural avoidance between buffalo groups. Many studies have shown very little spatial overlap between neighbouring groups of buffalo, but the mechanism by which segregation is maintained remains poorly understood (scent marking, perhaps). Research is also needed that goes beyond mere speculation about the functionality of this spatial segregation of groups. One can think, of course, about competition for resources or the prevention of transmission of pathogens. However, exhaustive systematic reviews of the literature to discover whether competition has been proven show a lack of evidence for interspecific competition (Prins, 2016; Schieltz and Rubenstein, 2016) but good evidence for intraspecific competition (see e.g. Prins, 1989b).

2. 2. Information is needed on male contact patterns – males could be important vectors of pathogens at the population level due to group affiliation behaviour between groups of females and bachelor groups. More work should focus on understanding the movements of adult males (e.g., how often they encounter mixed groups, how long and where). Such work also is needed to better understand the socioecological organization of the species (see also Prins, 1989a). For forest buffalo, this lack of knowledge is even more prevalent.

3. 3. Research is needed on how extractive industries (notably, for instance, mining gold using mercury) might impact buffalo and their habitat across their range. It is known that extractive industries influence the habitat (e.g. Foster et al., 2019). In water buffalo, health effects have been measured (e.g. Singh et al., 2018), in cattle as well (e.g. Ranjan et al., 2008; Pati et al., 2020), and mining has been shown to have unexpected consequences for African elephant distribution (Sach et al., 2020). The effects of gold mining using mercury have been studied in South America (e.g. Markham and Sangermano, 2018), North America (e.g. Eagles-Smith et al., 2016) and the Arctic (e.g. Dietz et al., 2013). It appears that most problems can be expected in aquatic environments (Basu et al., 2018), but because buffalo are closely tied to water, the problem may be large.

4. 4. The expansion of cotton growing (most of it Gossypium hirsutum, a native to Central America), especially in West and Central Africa (but also elsewhere in Africa), is a threat especially to the northern savanna buffalo because cotton appears to thrive where this buffalo form has its native range. Cotton growers rely heavily on phytosanitary procedures, and the widespread use in Africa of highly dangerous chemicals prohibited by, for example, the Stockholm Convention since 2001 (see, for instance, Hagen and Walls, 2005) is putting at risk entire ecosystems but is very much understudied. The presence of these chemicals has been found in African animals living in ‘cotton regions’ (e.g. Aïkpo et al., 2017; Houndji et al., 2020). Simple toxicology analysis would easily help to describe and measure the phenomenon, its magnitude, risk analysis, etc. (cf. Baudron et al., 2009).

5. 5. Do buffalo use auditive clues in their communication? There is much we do not understand concerning hearing (see e.g. Benoit et al., 2020) in ungulates and there is much to learn about vocalization (e.g. Blank, 2021). Who would have thought that Sumatran rhinoceros (Dicerorhinus sumatrensis) have song-like vocalizations (Von Muggenthaler et al., 2003) or that giraffe (Giraffa camelopardalis) and okapi (Okapi johnstonii) use infrasound (Badlangana et al., 2011; Von Muggenthaler and Bashaw, 2013)? Given the fact that buffalo are generally so silent in the audible range for humans, one would not be surprised if they use infrasound too in their communication, especially in dense vegetation.

6. 6. The mechanisms underlying collective movements, particularly at the time of group fission, are still unknown in buffalo. In other words, how do individuals decide to join one of the subgroups that form at the time of fission? The probability of following one of the subgroups could depend on the number of individuals already involved in the movement, regardless of their identity, social or affiliative relationships with individuals already moving or still at rest or their needs at the time. It would be interesting to examine decision-making during group fission in buffalo to measure the weight of social influence, compared to ecological influence (often examined), on group stability. This lack of knowledge appears to be even stronger in the forest buffalo.

7. 7. Group decision-making has been studied in buffalo (e.g. Prins, 1996, p. 218 ff), but also in other mammals. Theory has been developed by for example Conradt and Roper (2003) and reviewed by Conradt and Roper (2005). See also Couzin et al. (2005). Much can be gained by further studying this under different ecological circumstances.

8. 8. What is the effect of genetic relatedness on fission and fusion patterns (see Prins, 1996, p. 77 ff; p. 54 ff)?

9. 9. What are the impacts of human disturbance on buffalo grouping patterns and social decisions? Do buffalo groups tend to be more transient when encounters and disturbances from human activities are higher (human–wildlife interfaces versus within a park)? A testable idea could be that the higher the intensity and frequency of buffalo–human (including livestock) interactions, the higher frequency of the fission–fusion events, which would perhaps lead to smaller groups of buffalo closer to the borders of protected areas without fences (as compared to areas that are fenced). This ought to be controlled for possible competitive effects and poaching (see for instance Clegg, 1994; Leweri et al., 2022; cf. Dave and Jhala, 2011). One can also imagine that undisturbed animals maintain diseases within their own groups (e.g. Delahay et al., 2000), but disturbed animals do so less (cf. Smith and Wilkinson, 2003). Network analysis (e.g. Jacoby et al., 2012; Yin et al., 2020) will need to be applied to buffalo in disturbed and undisturbed situations.

10. 10. What are the effects of poaching on social cohesion and fission–fusion patterns in buffalo? In the African elephant (Loxodonta africana), poaching has been shown to affect social patterns (e.g. Prins et al., 1994; Archie et al., 2008), but it is not known how poaching affects buffalo.

11. 11. While more is understood about the functioning of key resource areas in animal migrations (e.g. Scholte and Brouwer, 2008; Moritz et al., 2010; Cornélis et al., 2011, 2014; Fynn et al., 2015; Moritz et al., 2015), much less is understood regarding how buffalo maintain themselves in areas without such green floodplains during the late dry season, for example in Kruger National Park (South Africa). Where do buffalo get sufficient (crude) protein and energy to support foetus development or peak lactation, which is even more demanding? Indeed, perhaps it can be found in the maintenance of grazing lawns (e.g. Vesey-FitzGerald, 1969; 1974; Cromsigt et al., 2013; Muthoni et al., 2014; Hempson et al., 2015). Gut morphology (e.g. Hofmann, 1973) is key to gaining a better understanding, as is the digestibility of the forage.

12. 12. There is no understanding of the forage traits that buffalo select under different constraints and demands. In other words, the proximate factors in food selection are not understood, and a simple description, ‘roughage selector’, does not do justice to either the animals or the plants. What forage traits help buffalo to maximize intake of energy, protein and minerals for growth and reproduction, and what is the optimal height of the sward? What forage traits provide optimal reserves of forage for the early dry season, the late dry season and during droughts? For example, we know that buffalo rather select for leafy, medium-height grasses such as Themeda triandra, Digitaria eriantha and the lawn-forming grass Cynodon dactylon, but what is it about these grasses that they like? Are the leaves more digestible, is it the leaf-to-stem ratio, is it the height and the bite size they offer for a tongue-sweeping forager, or some combination of the above? What are the traits of drought refuges – that is what level of leaf and stem toughness can they tolerate to avoid severe loss of body stores and starvation during droughts? See also below under ‘unknown knowns’, point ii.

13. 13. Much modern buffalo research nowadays depends on darting animals, immobilizing them and fitting them with a measuring device (like a GPS collar). The assumption is that the animal, once given its antidote, ‘immediately’ reverts to its normal behaviour, finds its herd and assumes its normal social position. In human patients, the standards are set high, but much has still to be learned before one really knows what one does to memory (Borrat et al., 2018; Galarza Vallejo et al., 2019; Veselis and Arslan-Carlon, 2021). In companion animals, rather in-depth analysis is carried out to investigate what is done to the animals (e.g. Biermann et al., 2012; Reader et al., 2019; Abouelfetouh et al., 2021) and likewise in horses (e.g. Hubbell and Muir, 2006; Schauvliege et al., 2019; Cock et al., 2022). Even in ruminants, precious little is known about the effects of key processes in the intact animal (e.g. Nicol and Morton, 2020; Waite et al., 2021). Research is urgently needed not only on the effects on the animals’ well-being, but also on their social behaviour and ranging behaviour.

14. 14. Time series of total population alone may lead to erroneous predictions about the population without detailed knowledge of its age structure (Chapter 5). Without this detailed knowledge, incorrect deductions may be made about possible density-related effects or sustainable harvesting regimes. Nyatiologists need to find a way to more precisely identify the age of individuals in the field.

Disease

1. 1. Some key resource areas, like floodplains, play a critical role in supporting buffalo over the late dry season. Yet, these areas also may harbour internal parasites, such as giant fluke (Fasciola gigantea) and the small fluke (Dicrocoelium hospes), and many other Platyhelminthes and Trematodes that can make cattle very sick if they are not properly treated (e.g. Swai and Wilson, 2017). How do buffalo contend with liver flukes? Indeed, they are widely infected (Hammond, 1972), but in the Central African Republic, 12 of 33 inspected buffalo that were infested with both flukes had no apparent clinical signs (Graber et al., 1972). It is worrying to note that African buffalo that are not infected with such parasites are resistant to bTB (Ezenwa et al., 2010; c.f. Budischak et al., 2012), but it is gratifying to know that a grazing alternation between ruminants and hindgut fermenters may reduce parasite burdens (Odadi et al., 2011).

2. 2. Do buffalo use natural plant chemicals to treat themselves for flukes and other parasites? Species that spring to mind are Lippia javanica and Tarchonanthus camphoratus (e.g. Koné et al., 2012; Kosgei, 2014; Hassen et al., 2022), and an evolutionary arms race may already have been on for a long time (see Beesley et al., 2017). By and large, however, evidence is scant and the literature abounds with ‘potential effects’ versus real ones, and ethnoveterinary storytelling instead of proven remedies.

3. 3. What is the influence of group formation dynamics on pathogen dynamics in buffalo? Cross et al. (2004) and Wielgus et al (2021) studied the influence of contact patterns within groups on pathogen dynamics. However, the aggregation of contact indices across time (e.g. per month) may lead to a misleading prediction of pathogen dynamics, as it ignores short-term interactions that change due to ecology and social behaviour (i.e. fission–fusion behaviour), which could have a significant effect on pathogen transmission patterns. See also Prins (1989a), Cross et al. (2012), Sintayehu et al. (2017a, 2017b) and Davis et al. (2018).

4. 4. What are the veterinary standards for health, or good reproduction, in buffalo (or for other wild mammals)? Little is known about the normal parameter values of blood, liver or other tissue, and too often one must rely on cattle standards. However, African buffalo are not at all closely related to cattle or Asian buffalo (see Chapter 2), and it is thus not very plausible that cattle standards are informative for African buffalo.

5. 5. More research is needed on foot and mouth disease (FMD), (bovine) tuberculosis ([b]TB) and brucellosis in free-ranging buffalo populations in unfenced ecosystems of central, eastern and western Africa; for the latter, these diseases pose public health problems as they are. Work on FMD in cattle in East Africa has shown how the model developed for this disease in southern Africa does not capture the whole story, nor do controls need to be so draconian with the options of commodity-based trade. This potential for a different perspective in terms of management of landscape and animal agriculture/wildlife economy and tolerance/control of the disease needs to be investigated further. This will need an integrated programme of socioeconomic, cultural, environmental (including climate change), biodiversity, agricultural, political and ecological benefits of living with FMD. The work of Sintayehu (2017a, 2017b) provides good pointers.

6. 6. Buffalo are resistant to a number of diseases, but the mechanisms for such resistances are not well known (for trypanosomiasis it remains quite unclear). Strikingly, even livestock-focused scientists have expressed little interest in understanding how to take advantage of such mechanisms in buffalo to apply to livestock production. Cases in point are: how are African buffalo capable of maintaining FMD on a permanent basis without expressing any symptoms (asymptomatic, or are they healthy carriers)? Applied to domestic artiodactyls, meat commercial trade rules would be reshuffled with new FMD policies. How do African buffalo resist African trypanosomes (genus Trypanosoma) and how can they live and thrive in areas that are heavily infested with the vector tsetse flies? What causes buffalo to be insensitive to CBPP (contagious bovine pleuropneumonia), Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), East Coast fever (ECF), heart water, babesiosis, streptothricosis/dermatophylosis and many other potential diseases which are so deadly for cattle? If we knew, we would not need to spend billions in yearly national cattle vaccination campaigns. Once again, African buffalo are probably not bovids (Chapter 2).

7. 7. The role of closed (i.e. fenced) versus open (i.e. non-fenced) systems with bTB expression and prevalence needs further research, but again in areas other than the southern African region where much of the work has been done already. The nature of the force of infection in a mixed livestock–buffalo system needs to be explored in the context of different cattle breeds. The potential risks of buffalo zoonotic bTB transmission through hunting or sustainable use of infected buffalo herds (managed culling and processing) needs to be explored.

Management

1. 1. What is the economic value of different land uses, namely, buffalo hunting (but also other species), agriculture (without buffalo but with livestock), conservation without hunting (but with buffalo) or any form of co-management including cattle and buffalo? Some work has been done on this (e.g. Hearne et al., 1996; chapters in Hearne et al., 2000; Prins et al., 2000; Mayaka et al., 2005; Mwakiwa et al., 2016; Poshiwa et al., 2013a, 2013b; Mwakiwa, 2019). Yet these economic analyses seem to encounter difficulties in entering more freely formulated, data-free discourses espoused by many conservationists. The implications of this are severe (see e.g. Scholte et al., 2022). These economic value assessments could be placed in the context of climate change scenarios in the contexts of Africa too. This lack of knowledge is even more pertinent for the forest and northern savanna buffalo.

2. 2. The often-positive role of controlled trophy hunting is insufficiently acknowledged by too many conservationists even though the Sustainable Use Principles of the Convention on Biological Diversity, in which its role is acknowledged, have been endorsed by all signatory States (COP Decision VII/12: see www.cbd.int/decision/cop/?id=7749). There is much disagreement between NGOs, but also for instance Kenya does not acknowledge the acceptability and effectiveness of hunting as a conservation tool (although it is under ministerial review). This contrast between different parties is intensified by a lack of reliable data on the impact of trophy hunting on wildlife. Much information on African trophy hunting is still available only as unpublished grey literature, and thus is difficult to access (for instance, Snyman et al., 2021; but see Baker, 1997; Hurt and Ravn, 2000; Lindsey et al., 2007; Schalkwyk et al., 2010) and more efforts should be done to collate information.

3. 3. Even though theories of non-equilibrium dynamics were formulated some 40 years ago (e.g. Ellis and Swift, 1988) and have been tested for savanna systems (e.g. Gillson, 2004; Accatino and De Michele, 2016; Engler and von Wehrden, 2018), too much work on buffalo and their ranging still is not placed in that context. African rangelands necessitate management strategies that acknowledge the unpredictability of weather, markets and politics. Many pastoralists realize this (e.g. Mace and Houston, 1989; Mace, 1990), but many managers do not (e.g. Shawiah, 2016) and are thus overwhelmed by so-called black swan events. In modelling for game ranching, some progress has been made (e.g. Joubert et al., 2007; Dlamini, 2011), but this is still unsatisfactory. The collapse of live buffalo prices, for example, made many an enterprise in South Africa suddenly unprofitable, and the effects of drought reverberate for many years through a population’s age structure (Chapter 5).

4. 4. The effect of trophy hunting is contested, as evidenced by parliamentary debates in, for example, Great Britain in 2022. Intriguingly, parliamentary members from western countries allow themselves to take decisions that would affect an industry (and positive outcomes for local people) in Zimbabwe or Namibia without encouraging parliaments in those countries to discuss red deer (Cervus elaphus) hunting (a.k.a. ‘deer stalking’) in Great Britain. Much more research along the lines of Gandiwa et al. (2014) is called for to reveal the hypocrisy in this debate (c.f. Curtin, 1940, p. 162 ff). Yet typical examples of successful management, at least partly based on utilization, occurred in South Africa where trophy hunting has facilitated the recovery of bontebok (Damaliscus dorcas), black wildebeest (Connochaetes gnu), cape mountain zebra (Equus zebra) and, until recently, southern white rhino (Cerathoterium simum). Furthermore, in recent years, trophy hunting has also facilitated the recovery of the buffalo and its habitat in several hunting areas of Mozambique and South Africa. It can be thought, however, that trophy hunting has a negative impact on buffalo and other wildlife (cf., #2), and the necessary data should lead to clear evidence to move the debate away from only emotions.

5. 5. The fact that large buffalo herds are mobile also means that they seldom ‘camp’ on a patch for a long period of time but are continually moving through different landscapes. This means that unlike selective water-dependent grazers, buffalo will utilize an area and then move on, thus reducing the chance of overgrazing (a function of time and not necessarily number – the vegetation needs rest according to a number of range ecologists). On fragmented (fenced) areas, excessive artificially supplied surface water results in high densities of sedentary water-dependent species (e.g. impala Aepyceros melampus) and less space for buffalo to move. So, where and when should animal control (including culling) be exercised? Even in unfenced areas, animal control may need to be implemented where water point provision has resulted in increased animal numbers due to their increased distribution, resulting in insufficient forage for animals during dry periods (obviously more critical in fenced or fragmented situations). The alternative is that the population is allowed to fluctuate with the prevailing resource conditions, that is a die-off in drought (of buffalo in a poor condition or recent weanlings). This may be appropriate in unfenced, ‘open’ situations, but is it acceptable in fenced areas where animals are unable to move widely? The tricky issue if the ‘laissez-faire’ option is pursued is the long-term effect on the resources resulting from overgrazing (see Peel and Smit, 2020) apart from the ethical issues surrounding enclosing animals in fenced-off areas where droughts occur.

6. 6. Horn size and horn shape drive much of the economics of buffalo breeding in South Africa and buffalo hunting. However, little is known about the genetics around the inheritance of horn size and shape. Equally little is known about the effects of levels of nutrition (macro- and micro-nutrients) or of hormones on horn growth. In other species, the situation is slightly better (e.g. big horn sheep Ovis canadensis: Reich, 2021; domestic sheep: Pan et al., 2018), but even in cattle this field is understudied.

7. 7. What are the effects of nutrition on calving rate, calf birth and weaning weight, intercalving interval, milk production, and calf growth? Similarly, what are the effects of nutrition on milk composition? Milk quality comparisons should be carried out on the milk of wild buffalo and those living in different forms of captivity (game ranches, farms and zoos). Apart from the scientific importance of these questions, they could lead to the formulation of standards for the nutrient requirements for African buffalo based on real research on buffalo rather than on comparative nutrition from cattle or water buffalo (as done at present). This is a common problem in wildlife ecology, and nutritional knowledge is detailed enough only in deer to have proper feeding standards (e.g. Hynd, 2019, p. 263 ff; Anonymous, 2020; Kim et al., 2020; Bao et al., 2021).

8. 8. The former Resource Ecology Group under H.H.T. Prins has most consistently reported on forage quality parameters as espoused by Peter Van Soest (so, apart from crude protein, potassium, phosphorus, digestibility parameters such as neutral digestive fibre (NDF) and acid digestive fibre (ADF), but also in-vivo digestibility using rumen fluid; Van Soest, 1994). An important caveat is that the rumen fluids came from domestic cattle, and that NDF and ADF calibration was never done with African buffalo (or other African large mammals with the exception of blue wildebeest). To really understand buffalo fitness or merely performance, it is of paramount importance to establish a captive group of buffalo on which depth nutritional measurements can be done. There is not much known about the need for micro-nutrients either, and there are no feeding standards.

9. 9. The reliance on opioids for buffalo immobilization (and other large mammals) is still enormous. Veterinary authorities and regulators are making very little progress to get rid of these substances that are very dangerous to animals and humans. Similarly, we know little of the health effects of the use of helicopters for the mass capture of buffalo herds, and we are not aware of reliable and stress-free alternatives under development.

Unknown Knowns – Evidence-Based Scientific Knowledge on Buffalo That We Appear To Have Forgotten

The collective of buffalo scientists did not signal many insights that were forgotten. Of course, this may simply mean that this older knowledge truly has been forgotten or, alternatively, that the corpus of knowledge that has been garnered over the last decades is well integrated into our present-day knowledge. Finally, it may indicate that we have collectively reached the verdict that much of the older knowledge does not meet our standards and is thus rejected. However, there are three knowledge domains that were flagged as probably forgotten.

1. i. There was possibly good knowledge of pastoral systems in which buffalo also could find a place, or, alternatively, good knowledge of systems that could not accommodate buffalo. If this knowledge exists or existed, it is probably indigenous knowledge of integrated pastoral systems tolerant/intolerant of buffalo. If such indigenous knowledge (still) exists, it is extremely likely that it was never written down and thus would need a socio-anthropological approach. If this knowledge could be ‘tapped’, or somehow ‘resurrected’, it could provide valuable insights into future land use possibilities.

2. ii. In contrast, the second field of knowledge that appears to have been forgotten can be found in the scientific literature. This relates to the bioenergetics of herbivores, including African buffalo. This field is, however, getting renewed attention (see e.g. Malishev and Kramer-Schadt, 2021). The great measuring systems of herbivores in metabolic chambers that were extremely important for understanding the physiology of ruminants (e.g. Blaxter, 1966; Moen, 1973) were hardly used for large African mammals. The great exception was the work of Martyn Murray. Careful feeding experiments of wild herbivores in captivity have been extremely rare (but see e.g. Murray and Brown, 1993) even though very important insights were obtained from shot individuals (e.g. Gordon and Illius, 1996). Much is known about domestic ruminants and small lagomorphs and geese, but we know little about large tropical wild ruminants (see e.g. Illius and Jessop, 1996). Proper measurements of energy expenditure of wild ruminants are rare, and non-existent for African buffalo.

   Work that was nearly forgotten concerned the horns of bovids as possible cooling organs (Taylor, 1966; see also Picard et al., 1999; Cain et al., 2006), which was not used in some important reviews on thermal adaptation (e.g. McKinley et al., 2018) or just mentioned in passing (e.g. Henning et al., 2018), and experimental evidence has hardly been collected since (see Knierim et al., 2015). Many other important works on thermoregulation and water usage from the early 1970s by scientists like Taylor (Taylor, 1969, 1970a, 1970b; Taylor and Lyman, 1972; Taylor et al., 1969) deserve to be integrated better into tropical ungulate ecology, and especially that of the African buffalo. The current generation is, however, exploring this (e.g. Hetem et al., 2009, 2010, 2013; Shrestha et al., 2012, 2014; Strauss et al., 2016).

   Lastly in this category is the non-use of non-Anglophone published literature. A good case in point are the books of Riviere (1978), De Vries and Djitèye (1982) and Boudet (1984) on forage and foraging, and those on parasites (e.g. Troncy, 1982).

3. iii. A third issue that has been flagged is the knowledge that is or was locked in the grey literature. Le Houérou’s (1980) review of the knowledge on browse in Africa perhaps still has not been surpassed, but in July 2022 it had been cited only 149 times. Knowledge that remains hidden in the grey literature is especially relevant for wildlife inventories, game censuses and pest control reports in the archives of ministries or of consulting companies. All of this contributes to intergenerational amnesia and to the so-called ‘shifting baseline syndrome’ (e.g. Papworth et al., 2009; Soga and Gaston, 2009; Prins and De Jong, 2022).

Unknown Unknowns – Knowledge That, Once Obtained, Will Upset Our Present Thinking, Perhaps About African Buffalo, Perhaps About Ecology Evolution, or Aspects of Veterinary Sciences

We share these ‘unknowns’ without too much comment, but we hope that some of these thoughts may influence your own thinking and creativity.

Overarching in our thinking is Darwinism, which represents life as a continuous struggle, and which leaves scientists to think in terms of functionality and (negative) selection. To what extent does this paradigm cause us to overlook or misinterpret natural patterns and processes? The central tenet is that many features of an organism are not necessarily adaptive but may arise as a by-product of evolution, whatever their subsequent exaptive utility (Gould 1979; Gould and Lewontin, 1979). For example, it is assumed too easily that ungulates have coevolved with their food, yet the average duration of existence of a large mammalian chronospecies is about 1.5 million years (Prins and Gordon, 2023) while that of plant chronospecies is about 10 times longer (cf. Stanley, 1978). Plant families arise much slower than may be thought (see Harris and Davies, 2016). A trait-based approach may give false certainty (cf. Gordon and Prins, 2019), as many traits are interrelated and should not be viewed in isolation as promoted by the ‘adaptationists’.

Much selection took place during the bull market for ‘trophy animals’, where especially in South Africa much effort was spent on breeding bulls with massive horns. We know very little of the possible pleiotropic effects of genes (or of proteins; pleiotropy is the property of a single gene or protein to act in a multiplicity of ways). If these occur in African buffalo, they immediately throw a stark light on the basis of the selection for adaptability of traits (see previous paragraph). In cattle, these pleiotropic effects have now been discovered (see e.g. Bolormaa et al., 2014; Saatchi et al., 2014; Xiang et al., 2021). It is intriguing to learn that many QTL (quantitative trait locus, a section of DNA that correlates quantitatively with phenotype) effects are linked to weight at birth, age of weaning, weaning weight and carcass weight in cattle, and that pleiotropy is involved (Saatchi et al., 2014; Gershoni et al., 2021; Li et al., 2021; Tiplady et al., 2021; Widmer et al., 2021). One may also assume that these vital life-history parameters are governed in a similar way in African buffalo. With the effects of inbreeding on the genetic make-up of the species and calving and weaning percentages, the lack of connectivity between buffalo populations across the continent may thus affect the essential life history of the remnant populations. We would think that an effective and rapid first approach would be to assume that genes and QTLs that have been discovered in cattle could be looked for as candidate genes in African buffalo. A next question to address would be: after what level of ‘breeding’ is a buffalo no longer ‘natural’ and thus lost to conservation? (See Child et al., 2019). We thus advise much caution when breeding for ‘maximum trophy value’, especially when the spillback of animals into nature is not rigorously prevented.

Because African buffalo are very distantly related to other Bovini, and perhaps should not even be viewed as bovine but as boselaphine (Chapter 2), it is unlikely that ‘genetic pollution’ will occur at the level of interspecies hybridization. At the level of crossings between animals from widely different locations, as was done for the breeding of ‘better’ trophy buffalo (e.g. buffalo from Tanzania and Zimbabwe bred in South Africa), we know next to nothing. The genetic distance is not small (see Chapter 3). It is thus not clear really why IUCN voices concerns because the so-called intra-taxon biodiversity in reality may be minimal. Moreover, the suggested argument concerning the associated growing risk of diminishing the capacity of the taxon to resist ‘all sorts of shocks, either expected or not expected’ if buffalo from different regions within the same taxon (‘Syncerus caffer caffer’) are crossed, is countervailed by concepts of hybrid vigour. In red deer (Cervus elaphus) this type of crossbreeding has been measured and evaluated (De Jong et al., 2020), but not in buffalo. We thus call for an in-depth evaluation of this issue, taking into account societal effects, conservation considerations and genetics.

This crossbreeding and ranching of African buffalo may, under as yet unknown circumstances, perhaps lead to a change of perspective of wildlife versus domestic animals. For 150 years, the Midwest of the United States was nicknamed the ‘Red Meat Republic’ (Specht, 2019; Dolan, 2021), yet it became possible to ‘bring back the bison’. What would happen if in some African cultures the societal perceptions of ‘bringing back the African buffalo’ took hold? Would that be possible through greater use of communal land rather than limiting protected areas? That would herald a societal earth slide away from seeing wildlife merely as ‘nyama’ (in kiSwahili, ‘game’ [alive] and ‘meat’ [the dead product]), towards a highly valued, iconic, cultural symbol for a form of African Renaissance. What if, as has rarely happened, an African leader actually embraced the conservation, sustainable use and pride of African wildlife?

This issue is important, because currently cattle populations are supplanting those of buffalo across much of Africa. In West and Central Africa this process nearly came to its fulfilment (Chapter 4; Scholte et al., 2022). The consequences of this replacement – from grazing by a once-dominant wild herbivore to its domestic surrogate – on soil, animal ecologies, resilience and animal and human health are totally unknown, although it has been speculated about through what was termed ‘holistic management’ (see Savory, 1983). Conversely, we also know next to nothing about the effects of compartmentalization of natural habitats and reinforcement (through protection) of buffalo enclaves on ‘mini-ecosystems’ (i.e. small protected or small game farms) from a variety of perspectives, including health and disease. There is much ecological thinking about the effects of isolation (and shrinking) of protected areas (based on Island Theory; e.g. Prins and Olff, 1998; Olff et al., 2002), but we are not aware of so-called ‘before–after’ evidence-based comparisons of ecosystem functioning during the process of this isolation and shrinking of protected areas with African buffalo.

The most extreme ‘unknown unknown’ could be this: what would happen if the proverbial black swan event occurred that conceivably could knock the whole wildlife system off its axis? From the experience of COVID-19, one may deduce that some horizon scanning to create anticipatory awareness (and perhaps the development of early warning systems) to build system recoverability after a major disturbance of nature and its wildlife is needed. Ecosystem managers should, we think, engage much more in scenario-thinking like big industry does (Chapter 18). We could possibly anticipate the effects of four major processes that take place in savanna Africa, namely rising CO₂ levels, changing weather systems, woody thickening which seem to supress the grass layer and probably African buffalo numbers, and the human population explosion with associated land hunger and need for fuel wood. Buffalo may feature in the development of scenarios not only as a casualty but perhaps also as some ecosystem architect (Prins and Van Oeveren, 2014).

Perhaps one day we will finally come to grips with the fact that we do not know much about buffalo communication (Figure 17.2). We hardly understand their cognitive processes, cognitive maps, or communal decision making (cf. Prins, 1996). Like most mammals, it is very likely that their sense of smell is linked to their perception of other buffalo, the world, and their detection of predators and strangers. This world of pheromones and smells is for us a closed book, but the emergence of ‘electronic noses’ may open this world. Indeed, dogs have learned to understand our language (e.g. Grassmann, 2014; Reeve and Jacques, 2022), while we – with our ‘superior’ brains and AI tools – do not understand theirs (e.g. Harris, 2017). When will we then understand African buffalo? The number of doctoral candidates needed to answer the research questions presented in this chapter must be in the order of 100 or more (as compared to the 30-odd so far); after they are done, we definitely will be closer to understanding this splendid species. But truly understanding your partner and family takes a lifetime of study, and be honest – did you succeed?

Figure 17.2 Herd of West African savanna buffalo, Konkombri Hunting Area, Benin.

© Christophe Morio.

18 Futures of the African Buffalo

A. Caron , R. Bourgeois , P. Chardonnet , D. Cornelis and H.H.T. Prins

Introduction

While the health of the African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) population in Africa is generally good, it is threatened in some regions of the continent, as described in Chapter 4. A few African buffalo are kept outside Africa, for example, in parts of the United States (e.g. Texas) where they can be hunted, and in zoo collections across the world (e.g. in European collections there are estimated over 100 Syncerus caffer caffer and 150 S. c. nanus). Yet it is utterly unlikely that modern governments will allow the population of an exotic mammal, one that can become an exotic invasive species, to be built up. It is consequently unlikely that relatively safe havens for the African buffalo will develop outside Africa; if the species is going to survive, it must be in Africa. On the other hand, the build-up of large populations of nilgai (a.k.a. blue bull, Boselaphus tragocamelus) in the USA provide food for thought (Presnall, 1958; Butts, 1979; Foley et al., 2017), as does that of the Canada goose (Branta canadensis) and raccoon (Procyon lotor) in Europe and banteng (Bos javanicus) in northern Australia. Nonetheless, it seems reasonable to anticipate that the futures of the African buffalo will take place in the context of the African continent only. As a result, these futures will depend on how the many and multidimensional factors that impact them develop or unfold.

It is not easy to forecast the fates of biodiversity and biodiversity conservation in Africa. On the one hand, African biodiversity is unique. In some parts of Africa, biodiversity is well conserved compared to other continents, and some African economies (e.g. Namibia) have managed to rely on its sustainable use, mainly through international tourism. Other countries are losing their biological heritage hand over fist, mainly in West and Central Africa (e.g. Scholte et al., 2022). On the other hand, Africa is currently undergoing significant transformations generated by, among other factors, a booming human population, growing urbanization, shifting geopolitical relationships, increasing pressures on natural resources and political variability and sometimes volatility. These transformations are likely to induce conflicts over land between agricultural production and biodiversity conservation if the land-sparing versus land-sharing debate does not deliver a sustainable framework to conciliate both dynamics (e.g Fischer et al., 2014; Kremen, 2015; Baudron et al., 2021). The fate of the African buffalo residing in and outside protected areas will be impacted by both the politics of conservation (currently mainly centred on protected areas and less so on sustainable use) and the relationship between the people of Africa and Nature in the decades to come. Both the COVID-19 crisis and several bans on hunting also have profoundly incapacitated the international tourism industry, cutting a significant material incentive for protecting wildlife in Africa. The consequences of these crises could say a lot about the resilience of natural resource management on the continent.

Is there any chance that the African forest buffalo (Syncerus caffer nanus) will survive in the ransacked forests of West Africa? Or that the northern savanna buffalo will survive in the swath of land stretching between Senegal and Ethiopia? And if so, what has to be realistically and concretely done to safeguard a future for this magnificent animal?

Methodology

The more than 60 contributors to this book, many members of the African Buffalo Interest Group (AfBIG) belonging to the IUCN Antelope Specialist Group, hold a large body of knowledge and experience on the focal species. Drawing from their collective and diverse expertise on the species, and from the updated information contained in the chapters of this book, we created a list of factors of change based on the question: what are the factors of change that could impact (positively or negatively) African buffalo populations in the future? We chose a time horizon of 30 years because it is approximately equivalent of one human generation. From this perspective, looking backwards is then what is termed ‘within living memory’ (e.g. Fanta et al., 2019), while looking forward is what most people feel capable of imagining within their lifetime (see e.g. Ebel, 2009; Vecchi and Gatti, 2020). We drafted a preliminary list of factors and submitted it to all co-authors of this book for comments and additions. For each ‘factor of change’ added to the list, a definition was agreed upon and its relevance was discussed and assessed.

From the list of factors of change, we also implemented a structural analysis (Godet, 1986). Structural analysis is performed on a set of factors that are considered as interconnected, thus forming a ‘system’. Its final purpose is to uncover driving forces that are transforming the system (Godet, 2000). Through structural analysis based on expert knowledge (in this case the authors of this chapter), a systematic pairwise discussion of the direct influences of each factor on all other factors makes it possible to discover how we perceive the structure of the system, that is, the set of dominant factors and their interactions that may shape futures for African buffalo populations. This analytical process leads to the creation of an influence/dependence matrix associated with graphs displaying the position of each factor of change in different categories according to their level of influence on the other factors, and dependence to other factors, as per Table 18.1.

Table 18.1 Influence/dependence matrix used to categorize the factors of change that are thought to shape the African buffalo’s futures over the next three decades.

Factor of change	Weakly dependent	Strongly dependent
Strongly influent	Driver	Leverage
Weakly influent	Outlier/singular	Outputs

Adapted from Godet (1986).

Subsequently, we discussed the list of the important factors of change based on the authors’ selections, and the most influential factors of change (based on the structural analysis). Hence, we identified the driving forces that we think drive the futures of African buffalo populations (i.e. the most influential factors of change), and then reflected about the potential future states of these driving forces. Given that the most influential factors of change were ‘external’, that is beyond the control or influence of the core actors involved in the management of the buffalo population, we applied the critical uncertainty matrix approach (Curry and Schultz, 2009) to explore alternative futures for buffalo. This approach, also called the 2×2 matrix or the 2×2 scenario method, has been developed and widely used in strategic foresight for exploring contextual futures (Ramirez and Wilkinson, 2014) to the point of being called a ‘golden tool’ (Bradfield et al., 2005). It consists of (i) selecting one pair of driving forces with a strong impact on the system and a very uncertain development, (ii) imagining for each of the driving forces two contrasting future states by the time horizon selected and (iii) combining these future states to portray four alternative futures. Thus, each future represents a possible systems context for the question, here the potential futures of buffalo populations. This approach has well-known advantages and drawbacks (Ramirez and Wilkinson, 2014) and the most important ones for our study will be discussed later. Due to these shortcomings, we modified the approach, applying it to several pairs using all of the driving forces selected. For this, the pairwise combination respected the rule of non-related forces and privileged a combination of different dimensions such as societal, technical, economic, environmental, political and values (‘STEEPV’ dimensions). We then used an adapted morphological analysis (Álvarez and Ritchey, 2015; Duczynski, 2017) to combine these different sets of four alternative futures, thus producing a final set of mutually exclusive and contrasting synopses incorporating the different states of these driving forces.

Each synopsis was then further developed with plausible states of the factors of change that the authors considered as being directly related to the description of the state of the buffalo population and its management in Africa. Figure 18.1 displays the entire sequence of the methodology.

Figure 18.1 The methodological steps used for the development of alternative futures of the buffalo population in Africa.

Source: Authors.

Results

Factors of Change and Structural Analysis

The first outputs of this methodological approach included a list of 29 factors of change with their definition and some examples (Table 18.2).

Table 18.2 List of factors of change (in alphabetical order) potentially impacting positively or negatively African buffalo populations at the continent level. The most influential factors of change are displayed in grey. The fourth column indicates the domain(s) in which a factor of change falls using the STEEPV dimensions: S, societal; T, technical; Ec, economic; En, environmental, P, political; V, values.

Factor of change	Acronym	Definition	STEEPV	Notes
African buffalo production systems	Prod_Sys	The use of African buffalo for production purposes as a domestic species	Ec	e.g. trophy/meat production, selective breeding
African worldviews	Afr_WorldV	African cultural values regarding wildlife and nature	V	e.g. relation with wild meat consumption, wildlife as cultural heritage
Buffalo uses in natural systems	Buff_Use	The types of use of African buffalo under extensive and natural systems	Ec	e.g. trophy hunting, sustainable harvesting, subsistence hunting
Climate change	Clim_Chg	The change of local climate in terms of frequency and intensity of events	En
Climate mitigation measures	Clim_Mit	The measures adopted to mitigate the effects of climate change	T	e.g. forest conservation, carbon sequestration in savannas
Colonial legacy	Col_Leg	The influence of colonial era on current international political processes	P	e.g. current conservation models were designed in the context of colonial era
Conservation funding	Conserv_Fund	The status and modalities of conservation funding	Ec
Conservation models	Conserv_Mod	The diversity and specificities of conservation models	En, Ec	e.g. co-management, role of state, non-governmental organizations, local communities
Conservation priorities	Cons_Prio	The orientation of conservation towards particular species or habitats	V	e.g. focus on large carnivores and pachyderms
Food production	Food_Prod	The quantity and quality of food production, including the balance of animal-based to crop-based agriculture	Ec	Land sparing versus land sharing
Genetic adaptability of African buffalo	Buf_Gen	On an evolutionary timescale, the capacity of the African buffalo to adapt to its changing environment	En	e.g. gene flow and inbreeding depression, deleterious alleles
Habitat fragmentation	Hab_Frag	The emergence of discontinuities (fragmentation) in a given environment	En
Human/livestock diseases	H/L_Dis	Political and economic importance of animal and zoonotic diseases involving the African buffalo	Ec	e.g. foot and mouth disease, brucellosis
Human population growth	Hum_Pop	The growth of the human population	S	e.g. ratio urban/rural population
Influence of environmental movements	Env_Mouv	Nature and influence of environmental movements of societal values, perceptions and actions	P	e.g. shift towards plant-based diet (versus meat-based diet)
Influence of non-African states	Ext_Infl	The level of political and economic influence of external state in African politics and economy	P, Ec	e.g. land grabbing, infrastructure development
Intersectoral collaboration	Inter_Coll	State of intersectoral collaboration between ministries/governmental services	P
Land tenure	Land_Cons	The quantity of land converted for agriculture	P, Ec	e.g. green revolution/State versus private ownership
Livestock production	Liv_Prod	The quantity of land use for extensive livestock production	Ec

Factor of change	Acronym	Definition	STEEPV	Notes
Political governance	Pol_Gov	The quality of state and local political governance	P	e.g. threat of state capture
Political stability	Pol_Stab	The political stability of states and regions	P	e.g. war, terrorism
state of african tourism	Afr_Tour	The state of African nature tourism	Ec	e.g. dependency to international tourism
State of global tourism	Glo_Tour	State of global tourism	Ec	e.g. restriction of global tourism due to COVID-19 pandemic
State of poverty	Stat_Pov	The extent of poverty in African populations	S
Surface water availability	Surf_Wat	The state of natural and human-induced availability of water	En	e.g. changes in rainfall, water abstraction, leading to loss of wetland habitats
Technological innovation	Tech_Inov	Capacity for researchers and practitioners to access and use new technologies and knowledge to study the African buffalo	T	e.g. democratization and improvement of drones and/or telemetry tools
Transfrontier activities	Trans_Front	Activities implemented from one state into another, formally or informally	Ec	e.g. poaching, transfrontier tourism
Western worldviews	West_WorldV	The state of Western public opinion on African wildlife, nature and it uses	V	e.g. ban on hunting by European and African states

Each of the five authors then conducted a structural analysis of these 29 factors and the results were combined into a merged influence/dependence matrix where each cell was filled with the value that was attributed to it by at least three of five authors. Figure 18.2 displays the position of the factors of change in accordance with their respective relative direct influence on the other factors, and their respective relative dependency on the other factors.

Figure 18.2 Structural analysis direct influence matrix (some squares overlap). The dotted lines represent the ‘average’ influence and dependence of the factors in this system centred on the value 1. They define for quadrants or categories of factors as indicated in Table 18.1. Each factor of change is visualized on this graph with its influence and dependence coordinates. As a result, eight factors of change appeared to be located in the ‘drivers’ (top-left) quadrant plus one very influential leverage (i.e. conservation models) as summarized in Table 18.2.

To select the key variables for the 2×2 matrix approach, we decided to temporarily discard climate change because the selection of inputs for the matrix was based on a criterion of high uncertainty. For the selected time horizon of 2050, there is a relatively low level of uncertainty about the future state of this factor for much of sub-Saharan Africa. We also decided to put aside ‘Colonial legacy’, as this factor of change was closely linked to, and therefore represented in, the ‘External influence’ and ‘Western worldviews’ factors of change. Although thought to be highly significant, we set aside ‘Conservation model’ due to its extremely high dependency, which implies that it is not really a driving force. ‘Human population’ as a global variable is also quite predictable for the next 30 years, but it is much less predictable when its meaning in terms of rural/urban ratios is considered. We therefore kept it with this specific meaning after checking that this would not change the results of the structural analysis. The key variables selected are thus ‘Political governance’, ‘Political stability’, ‘External influences’, ‘Western worldviews’, ‘African worldviews’ and ‘Human population’.

Creating Pairwise Alternative Futures with the 2×2 Matrix

We combined these six variables into three pairs, avoiding closely linked dimensions in these pairs and ensuring that diverse STEEPV dimensions were mixed. The resulting set of three pairs comprised ‘Political stability and African worldviews’, ‘Political governance and Western worldviews’ and ‘External influence and Human population’. For each driving force, the authors together selected two contrasting alternative states by 2050. These are included in the three sets of matrices presented below. The resulting 12 alternative futures were each given a metaphoric name or descriptive phrase as a way to refer to them, but also to help others to imagine such an alternative future.

The ‘Political Stability and African Worldviews’ Matrix

Positioning on an axis for ‘Political stability’ the two opposite states, ‘political chaos’ versus ‘generalized political stability’, and on another axis for ‘African worldviews’ the two opposite states, ‘Preservation of nature’ versus ‘Exploitation of nature’, and placing them in a Cartesian coordinate plane results in what has been named a ‘scenario cross’ consisting of two axes with extremes and four scenario stories. The resulting four futures with their metaphoric names are displayed in the quadripartite graph in Figure 18.3.

Figure 18.3 Alternative futures from the ‘Political stability and African worldviews’ matrix.

The ‘Political Governance and Western Worldviews’ Matrix

This matrix yields four alternative futures when the two states of ‘Political governance’, that is ‘fulfilling the aspiration of all the people’ versus ‘serving the interest of a few’ and the two states of ‘Western worldviews’, that is ‘preservation with sustainable consumptive use’ versus’preservation without consumptive use’ are placed in an orthogonal Cartesian plane. The resulting four futures are displayed in a quadripartite graph in Figure 18.4.

Figure 18.4 Alternative futures from the ‘Political governance and Western worldviews’ matrix.

The ‘External Influence and Human Population’ Matrix

This matrix yields four alternative futures when the two states of ‘External influence’, that is ‘Africa independent from the world economy and politics’ versus ‘external influence dictates politics and economy’ and the two states of ‘Human population’, that is ‘people live in rural areas’ versus ‘people live in urban areas’ are placed in an orthogonal Cartesian plane. The resulting four futures are displayed in a quadripartite graph in Figure 18.5.

Figure 18.5 Alternative futures from the ‘External influence and human population’ matrix.

Using Morphological Analysis to Create Integrated Synopses of the Six Driving Forces

We proceeded by developing a morphological table combining the future states of the first two matrices where we discarded incompatible futures, that is futures whose combination would make an inconsistent synopsis (results displayed in the first two columns in Table 18.3). For example, we discarded futures where ‘political chaos’ was associated with ‘political governance fulfilling the aspirations of all the people’ under the postulate that political stability figures among the aspirations of at least some people. In a second morphological analysis step, the eight resulting combinations were put in relation with the four alternative futures produced with the third matrix (Table 18.3). The purpose was to identify where each of these four futures best fitted with the preceding eight ones. We ensured that all four futures were used in the results. We noted that the presence of the future state, ‘independent from the rest of the world’ of the ‘External influence’ driving force made automatically inessential some of the first eight futures whose differences came from discrepancies between African worldviews and Western worldviews on Nature. Hence, not all eight futures were selected.

Table 18.3 Second morphological analysis step: after putting in relation the first 2×2 matrices and developing metaphoric names and short synopses (first two columns), the eight resulting combinations were put in relation with the four alternative futures produced with the third matrix. White backgrounds indicate the 7 combinations of 6 driving forces’ states selected, including the metaphoric names of these synopses, ensuring that all driving forces’ states were used in the results. Dark backgrounds indicate combinations that were discarded because of an incompatibility between the driving forces’ states. Light grey backgrounds indicate possible combinations that were not selected because of inessential selected combinations.

Metaphoric names of 2×2 matrix	Combination of the future states of the first two matrices: African worldviews × Political stability and Western worldviews × Political governance	Synopsis of 2×2 matrix: External Influence × Human population
		1. Urban freelance	2. World urban dwellers	3. Farmers in their villages	4. Farmers for the world
		African population lives in urban areas and Africa is independent from the world economy and politics	African population lives in urban areas and external influence dictates Africa’s politics and economy	African population lives in rural areas and Africa is independent from the world economy and politics	African population lives in rural areas and external influence dictates Africa’s politics and economy
1. Noah’s universal Ark	By 2050, political stability has become generalized and the governance system fulfils the aspiration of all people. African worldviews concentrate on the preservation of nature while Western worldviews concentrate on preservation with sustainable consumptive use.				African renaissance
2. Noah’s controversial Ark	By 2050, political stability has become generalized and the governance system fulfils the aspiration of all people. African worldviews concentrate on the preservation of nature while Western worldviews concentrate on preservation without consumptive use.		Happy nature		Even more difficult if Western dictates wilderness and all people live in rural areas
3. Into the wild	By 2050, political chaos reigns everywhere and governance system fulfils the aspiration of few people. African worldviews concentrate on the preservation of nature as do Western worldviews but without consumptive use.				Even more difficult if Western dictates wilderness and all people live in rural areas
4. Private games	By 2050, political chaos reigns everywhere and the governance system fulfils the aspiration of few people. Western worldviews concentrate on preservation with sustainable consumptive use while African worldviews concentrate on the preservation of nature.	Pauper’s hell			Conservation islands
5. We profit all	By 2050, political stability has become generalized and the governance system fulfils the aspiration of all people. While Western worldviews concentrate on preservation with sustainable consumptive use, African worldviews concentrate on the exploitation of nature.	Self-service			Not very consistent: opposition of worldviews while Western dictates
6. All against the West	By 2050, political stability has become generalized and the governance systems fulfil the aspiration of all people. African worldviews concentrate on the exploitation of nature while Western worldviews concentrate on preservation without consumptive use.			Agro-Africa	Not very consistent: opposition of worldviews while Western dictates
7. The lords of nature	By 2050, political chaos reigns everywhere and the governance systems fulfil the aspiration of few people. African worldviews concentrate on the exploitation of nature while Western worldviews concentrate on preservation without consumptive use.		Not very consistent: opposition of worldviews while Western dictates		Not very consistent: opposition of worldviews while Western dictates
8. The hunting lords	By 2050, political chaos reigns everywhere and the governance systems fulfil the aspiration of few people. African worldviews concentrate on the exploitation of nature while Western worldviews concentrate on preservation with sustainable consumptive use.		Battleground 2050		Not very consistent: opposition of worldviews while Western dictates

We gave a metaphoric name to each of the seven resulting differentiated futures and scripted them in the form of synopses combining the related states of the six driving forces. Each synopsis thus represented a contextual future environment for the buffalo population that was detailed enough to logically conjecture what would be the credible state of the buffalo population and its related internal factors, that is the factors that the actors directly involved in the management of the buffalo population could influence/control. Among these, the factor ‘Conservation model’ plays a crucial role as a leverage as its future is determined by the contextual environment set by influential factors and at the same time an influential one for the buffalo system in particular. Three other factors also play roles, to a lesser extent, as leverages as indicated in Table 18.2, namely ‘Land Tenure’, ‘Livestock Production’ and ‘State of Poverty’. We thus incorporated them in the refinement of the synopses along with the other internal factors directly associated with the buffalo population as indicated in Table 18.4.

Table 18.4 Resulting synopsis setting contextual futures for the future of buffalo population in Africa.

African renaissance	By 2050, external influences dictate Africa’s politics and economy; political stability has been reached in Africa now for one generation and the governance system fulfils the aspiration of all people. In the context of the doubling of the human population, the urban population remained stable while the rural population tripled. Western worldviews have changed and adopted relevant preservation of nature modes that promote sustainable consumptive use in recognition of local culture and knowledge, echoing re-emerging African worldviews rooted in ancestral beliefs about the interconnectivity between all human beings and nature and the need to respect them. These ancestral beliefs are now ruling once again the relationship of man to nature. New locally relevant conservation models have emerged, promoting land sharing between conservation and local development for the benefit of both. As external influences led to improved agriculture, agricultural intensification took place as the rural population embraced conservation, preventing expansion into the bush. Climate change has pushed most farmers to focus on livestock production systems integrated within rangeland management programmes, sustainable resource use and local livestock markets to maintain a low livestock density. The state of poverty thus drastically reduced in Africa. The African buffalo is a key economic asset of these new conservation models (for tourism, hunting, meat) and free-roaming populations thrive in protected areas and community-based managed areas.
Happy nature	By 2050, external influences dictate Africa’s politics and economy; political stability has been reached in Africa now for one generation and the governance system fulfils the aspiration of all people. The African human population has almost doubled, the urban population more than tripled while the rural population drastically decreased, leading to extreme agricultural intensification. Africans live in urban areas, allowing for biodiversity to flourish in almost deserted rural areas since Western worldviews pushed for and imposed preservation without consumptive use over African worldviews. African cities are fed by international trade and some local concentrated intensive livestock production units. A luxury local agricultural market exists for citizens on the little land left in African landscape protected at 50%. The state of poverty in rural Africa is now much lower because fewer people live there with a few job opportunities such as those generated by the private sector, which has developed a highly profitable wildlife economy, for example in southern Africa. The dominant conservation model is still largely based on National Parks with no human activities apart from safari tourism. In southern Africa, the private sector has developed a highly profitable wildlife economy that generate many jobs. The African buffalo is free-roaming in protected areas and a large private population, genetically selected, exists in intensively managed farms.
Pauper’s hell	By 2050, Africa is independent from the world economy and politics. Political chaos reigns everywhere and the governance system fulfils the aspiration of few people. African populations find shelters in cities to make a living. The ones who stayed in rural areas can only produce for subsistence and rely on nature for the rest of their needs. The state of poverty has remained as in the 2020s. Due to shrinking state services, the tsetse fly and sleeping sickness have returned in large parts of the continent and therefore prevent livestock production in large tracks of land. The dominant African worldviews is the preservation of nature, not because the pauperized people would not like to harvest it, but because the elite want to hunt or enjoy these animals for themselves and they enforce strict rules about the (inequitable) access to wildlife. The Western worldviews focusing on sustainable use cannot reach Africa, which is completely disconnected from the rest of the world.The African buffalo is free-roaming in protected areas that are classified as ‘National Parks’ but are, in reality, more like royal domains.
Self-service	By 2050, political stability has become common and widepread and the governance system fulfils the aspiration of all people. Africa is independent from the world economy and politics. Thus, while Western worldviews try to promote preservation with sustainable consumptive use, the worldviews of the African populations, who live in urban areas, concentrate on the exploitation of nature. As a result, a small rural population exploits unsustainably most of the landscape, which is becoming drier and subject to extreme events. Livestock is produced in vast quantities feeding the local markets but the density on the land is high. Poverty has increased as the land produces less and less. Conservation models advanced by the West do not convince African populations to change their mind on the preservation of nature apart from a few places. The African buffalo populations are isolated in protected areas, under the pressure of livestock farming and numbers are decreasing. The highest number of living individual buffalo are private property in intensive farms, profiting a few.
Conservation islands	By 2050, political chaos reigns everywhere and the governance systems fulfil the aspiration of few people. Africa is independent from the world economy and politics. The worldview of African populations, who live in rural areas, concentrates on the exploitation of nature while Western worldviews still try to promote preservation without consumptive use where it can. Thirty per cent of the land is under strict conservation since 2030, following international agreements, but the need for land for the ever-increasing rural population puts pressure on protected areas. Livestock farming is dominating in the arid landscape and the level of poverty has increased since the 2020s. There are no conservation models beside the willingness of the powerful to keep a few animals for their own pleasure in their private holdings. The African buffalo is not a key species for conservation in Africa and its populations have declined and are on the brink of extinction.
AgroAfrica	By 2050, political stability has become common and widespread and the governance systems fulfil the aspiration of all the people. Africa has taken independence from the world economy and politics and now concentrates on its food security with African populations living mostly in rural areas. African worldviews concentrate on the exploitation of nature against the Western worldviews incapable of imposing the preservation of nature without consumptive use anymore. The land use is dominated by agriculture as a booming sector sustained by intensification principles that have been adapted to African contexts. Livestock production is integrated in crop–livestock systems. Poverty is on the verge of being eradicated in Africa. The conservation of nature is an old story of Western dreamers: as Europe, Africa has made its green revolution to the expense of nature. African states have conserved National Parks to follow international treatiesn but their state is poor. The African buffalo population remains in protected areas, isolated, including fading populations in small parks under human pressure.
Battleground 2050	By 2050, external influence dictates Africa’s politics and economy; political chaos reigns everywhere and the governance systems fulfil the aspiration of few people. Western worldviews are preservation with sustainable consumptive use. As most people now live in cities, land tenure has shifted towards dominant conservation landscapes at low human density with integrated management of livestock and rangeland management. The level of poverty is relatively low. However, urban African populations have developed worldviews that concentrate on the unsustainable exploitation of nature, creating a demand for natural resources. This includes bush meat, which makes environmental criminal organizations thrive. Conservation models that have emerged are now locally relevant, promoting land sharing between conservation and agriculture. The unsustainable exploitation of wildlife threatens this fragile equilibrium. The African buffalo is an important asset of the new conservation models, but the constant poaching activities prevent a true success story of the sustainable use for the benefit of all.

Discussion

The list of factors of change identified by the co-authors of this book who responded to our calls for input includes two groups of separate factors. The first consists of external factors (e.g. ‘Climate change’, ‘External influence of States’), which put together sets a general context for Africa. The second group consists of more internal factors (e.g. African buffalo production systems, conservation funding). The results of the structural analysis shows that the first group strongly influences the second group, and thus contributes largely to shaping the future of African buffalo populations in Africa (Figure 18.6).

Figure 18.6 Herd of Cape African buffalo, central Botswana.

© Rudi van Aarde.

Regarding the full process, we considered Africa as a whole for the sake of the exploratory nature of this reflection. The resulting synopses (Table 18.4) should not be understood as continent-wide alternative futures. A synopsis represents a possible contextual situation, which could occur only in parts of the continent or of countries, coexisting with others in other parts as discussed later. These alternative futures are not predictions either. They are exploratory imaginaries of possible futures, and as such constitute only one way of anticipating amidst several alternative ways (Amer et al., 2013; Crawfords, 2019). They serve as a basis to enlarge our reflection on the future of the buffalo population beyond and in complement to the conventional use of trends and projections. As such they are intended to shed additional lights on how we ‘…make sense of change (difference) in the emergent present’ (Miller, 2015), that is the current situation of the buffalo population, and what that could mean for the future.

While we discarded ‘Climate change’ from our selection of drivers due to its high level of predictability at the time horizon selected, this factor of change cannot be removed from the discussion. Climate evolves ‘slowly’, will exert continuous pressure across the century and cannot be represented by different and contrasting states in the 30-year horizon that we set for this futures exercise. The climate is already changing and symptoms of these changes already can be felt in the buffalo range, especially in semi-arid areas (e.g. southern Africa; Kupika et al., 2018). Future buffalo in Africa will most probably live under a changed climate including more extreme events but also with a larger human population. Droughts or lack of surface water, their frequency and intensity in particular, will be a direct threat for buffalo that are quite susceptible to them, with substantial declines in some populations as witnessed in the Sahel at the end of the 1960s and during the 1990s in Tsavo, Serengeti/Mara, Gonarezhou and Kruger (East, 1999; Cornélis et al. 2014) and in 2022 in Amboseli, Lewa Downs and Tsavo in Kenya (Prins, personal observation). Without access to drought refuge resources such as extensive wetlands, some populations could suffer high mortality.

Against this general backdrop, the other factors of change that we perceived as setting the context of Africa in 2050 are mainly political and value-based. First, the quality and stability of African States’ political systems, including their governance, seem to be decisive with regard to their capacity to design and implement environmental policies, and to control or enable illegal activities. Consequently, the occurrence of wars and other conflicts can have serious impacts on wildlife populations, especially buffalo herds that can feed troops with good quantities of quality meat, as observed in the past. For bygone centuries, African politics have been largely impacted by the influence of colonial powers, and since independence by the influence of former colonial powers and emerging players on the African continent such as China, Russia, Israel and Turkey. The status of these future international relationships will impact the global context in terms of development, politics and ultimately the management of natural resources (e.g. extractive industries). Alternative futures with stronger or ruptured ties can be framed with secondary impacts on other factors of change (e.g. differences between ‘Pauper’s hell’ and ‘Self-service’ synopses). The influence of external States is impacting African conservation. Historically, the pre-eminence of Western countries in African affairs was associated with their capacity to globally impose the now dominant Western worldviews regarding conservation. Today, these Western worldviews have shown some limits (e.g. a land-sparing system too often neglecting local communities triggering negative local perceptions towards conservation and conflicts) and some voices have expressed the need for a decolonization of conservation policies (Domínguez and Luoma, 2020). This process, only started recently, could create a space for the re-emergence of the multiple African worldviews that pre-existed the colonial era and fell silent or went extinct since then, such as in ‘African renaissance’. If and how these African worldviews will reinvent themselves in the new contexts and redefine the relationship between African populations and nature is a major uncertainty for the future of conservation in Africa, and therefore for buffalo.

This group of contextual factors of change sets the scene in which future conservation models will succeed or fail to preserve African buffalo and perhaps associated biodiversity. The different synopses in Table 18.4 depict alternative futures considering different states of each of these factors of change articulated together to build a possible future. The aim is once again not to predict the future but to explore the maximum range of the possible futures in which the African buffalo could exist. As for most large wild mammals, the fate of the buffalo in Africa will be mirrored by the fate of conservation. The current status of buffalo in the West and Central savannas, where they only remain as a few isolated (but relatively robust) populations in national parks and well-guarded hunting areas and reserves, can serve as a picture of the future of African buffalo populations in a context of fortress conservation imposed by strong pressure from human activities (e.g. mobile pastoralism, both nomadic and transhumant and sedentary livestock husbandry, the former impacting more buffalo populations) such as in the ‘AgroAfrica’, ‘Self-service’ and ‘Conservation islands’ synopses. However, even if this future is possible, it does not mean that future buffalo populations will be restricted to protected areas only. In many parts of Africa today, the expansion of cotton growing (with unsustainable farming practices), pastoralism and the development of mining are only a few examples of elements that are already putting growing pressure on land, pushing buffalo into protected areas and sometimes encroaching into protected areas, including rainforests in the central parts of the continent. The demand for land for the growing human population superimposed on climate change could drive the conversion of more land for agriculture and other extractive activities and leave less land for natural habitat and buffalo. This will create a difficult context for achieving the objective of 30 per cent of land under protected areas by 2030 (even if some African countries have already reached this proportion, albeit some areas have been called ‘paper parks’; Blom et al., 2004; Di Minin and Toivonen, 2015; IUCN, 2022; e.g. ‘Conservation islands’). Another key for the future of buffalo in Africa will be its capacity to exist outside protected areas.

Disruptive developments could unfold in the management of land, its uses and the relationship between conservation and local development. These developments could be attractive for all stakeholders, but would require quite systemic changes in conservation. The previous paragraph demonstrates that land conversion for conservation could take place in two cases: either if conservation delivers decent livelihoods for the local human population (e.g. ‘African renaissance’), or if the majority of African populations live in cities as the current trend points at (e.g. ‘Happy nature’). In relation to the former, community-based natural resource management programmes (CBNRM) have been tested in Africa since the mid-1980s with failures and successes (Dressler et al., 2010). Their central tenet is the devolution to local communities of the right to access natural resources such as wildlife, and to encourage the sustainable management of the resources through consumptive (e.g. hunting, meat production) and/or non-consumptive (e.g. ecotourism or photographic safari) uses. Given many cases where this CNBRM failed (for instance, because of resource capture by local elites, weak safeguarding against short-term profiteering versus long-term sustainability, rent-seeking behaviour, weak embedding in existing legislation if at all, non-understanding of cultural differences, etc.), we do not plea for a blanket application of CBNRM at all. We thus call for a critical analysis of success factors as was done for fisheries (e.g. Cunningham and Bostock, 2005; Squires et al., 2017) instead of blind faith in self-regulation of natural resource use not by local peoples. Possible futures could go beyond the initial CBNRM concept to embrace further the framework of environmental justice that not only calls for more equal distribution (i.e. benefits) between stakeholders, but also for more equal involvement in decision-making processes, an aspect partially covered by CBNRM, and more recognition of local identities and cultural difference, meaning more recognition of local (African) worldviews (Martin et al., 2016; e.g. ‘African renaissance’). This would mean a progressive shift from (conservation) projects that are designed outside of local contexts, without the involvement of the final beneficiaries and are imposed on the latter by national or international external experts. The decision for a community to use its land for some form of conservation would be their own decision (they would have the right not to do so as well), under their terms and their governance and management system, and with enough benefits to be sustainable in the long term (after the end of external funding if this is not long term). The result would be mixed conservation–agricultural or conservation land, preferentially adjacent to protected areas to promote connectivity between natural habitats and/or between protected areas (e.g. ‘African renaissance’ and ‘Battleground 2050’). Pockets of this future already exist today, although they remain in a minority, with a progressive paradigm shift in some stakeholders (donors, practitioners, researchers) towards exploring these new forms of land use (Caron et al., in prep.). Any form of Half Earth concept (50 per cent of land protected globally) could only emerge in Africa through these types of new conservation models that would not concentrate solely on the management of protected areas as disconnected land use, but on larger landscapes in which protected areas are integrated with pro-conservation or coexistence land uses, benefiting a larger set of (local) stakeholders and benefiting from them. The concept of ‘Other effective area-based conservation measure’ (or OEACM) means ‘a geographically defined area other than a Protected Area, which is governed and managed in ways that achieve positive and sustained long-term outcomes for the in situ conservation of biodiversity, with associated ecosystem functions and services and, where applicable, cultural, spiritual, socioeconomic, and other locally relevant values’ and was adopted in 2018 by the 14th Conference of the Parties of the Convention on Biological Diversity and could provide a framework for such land-sharing options (OECMs, 2019; Figure 18.7).

Figure 18.7 Forest buffalo calf, Odzala National Park, Republic of Congo.

© Thomas Breuer.

The African buffalo could be a key species, if not the most important species, for these new conservation models that would be based on the consumptive use of wildlife. The reason for this is that only a small fraction of African landscapes and wildlife communities can offer proper products for clients of wildlife viewing. Alternative uses are trophy hunting and meat production through sustainable management. Today, trophy hunting is a very sensitive topic that divides Western opinion, sometimes violently (Chapter 16). An influential and powerful part of Western opinion opposes consumptive use in Africa and has succeeded in imposing bans on trophy imports in countries from which important populations of hunters come from, reflecting a combination of three drivers, ‘Western worldviews’, ‘External influence of States’ and ‘Colonial legacy’. There is no such fracture in mainstream African worldviews, where consumptive uses of natural resources are often allowed with access rules (e.g. seasonal, geographical, social, mystical, specific hunting rules). Chapters 13 and 16 present the central role that buffalo already play in the wildlife and trophy-hunting industry (i.e. it would be difficult to run a trophy-hunting business without buffalo except in cases where very iconic species can be hunted), and Chapter 14 focuses on meat production, which is also a valuable use of buffalo if markets for this meat exist. The new land-use options in which the buffalo may play an important role could, in possible futures (e.g. ‘Battleground 2050’), compete with traditional agricultural land uses such as rainfed crops, irrigated crops and livestock production (Cumming et al., 2014). They would require a new paradigm in which African populations take ownership of the buffalo as an indigenous species replacing the exotic breeds of cattle imported during the colonial era (as in ‘African renaissance’). This paradigm could percolate into the tourism industry by developing tourism products that offer the exploration of these rich and diverse landscapes in which biological and cultural diversity are nurtured. These products could attract emergent African middle and rich urban classes that may desire to reconnect with their culture and localities. In this future, African buffalo would thrive in and outside protected areas and be a symbol of the decolonization of Africa and the ownership of its landscapes and natural resources.

African worldviews also could fail to embrace the conservation of nature and do the minimum for conservation to respect signed treaties (as in ‘Battleground 2050’) or completely ignore their wildlife in order to make sure they reach food security through conventional agriculture (e.g. ‘AgroAfrica’ and ‘Self-service’). These contexts would restrict buffalo populations in protected areas while raising issues related to genetic bottlenecks if metapopulation management does not exist. The relationship with non-African states would be important as the funding for conservation would be, as it is today, dependent on external sources. Modalities for subsidizing nature for its conservation by local stakeholders would be a way to maintain protected areas in good shape. The conditions linked to this funding would be important if a sustainable management of natural resources and habitats is targeted; notions of appropriation, empowerment and recognition would still be important in these contexts.

Among possible futures, the commodification of buffalo through private ownership and under semi-extensive or intensive management (Chapter 13) could spread beyond South Africa as a business model in which buffalo already play an important role. However, this alternative raises two important questions: can this model produce enough benefits (through employment) to local communities to be accepted, and not only for a rich elite (as in ‘Self-service’ or ‘Conservation ‘islands’)? To what extent can artificially genetically selected (e.g. for horn size) or disease-free buffalo (including endemic diseases to African wildlife) still be considered as suitable to join free-roaming populations and benefit conservation? In recent decades, a few countries in southern Africa have also experienced strict sanitary measures regarding important cattle diseases (the main one being foot-and-mouth disease – see Chapters 9 and 12) that imposed strict separations between buffalo and cattle land uses, with devastating consequences for wildlife populations and small-scale subsistence farmers living close to protected areas with buffalo (Ferguson and Hanks, 2010; Cumming et al., 2015). In a context of higher economic dependence on external states, fencing to control diseases with consequences for wildlife and costs to the poorest farmers could spread to other region of Africa, mainly to the benefit of states. Due to these consequences, and to the fact that Africa needs to produce for itself, the disease issue did not appear as very important in the synopses. However, this vision could become a possible future for southern Africa.

The synopses of Table 18.4 draw possible futures that may or may not seem relevant for the different regions of Africa regarding the context and the future of African buffalo. Projecting current trends into the future, buffalo populations in West and Central savannas appear to follow some elements of the synopses ‘AgroAfrica’, ‘Self-service’ and ‘Conservation islands’ with a restriction in protected areas under pressure from human activities. The existing harsh competition between agro-pastoralists and pastoralists in these areas would require massive investments to keep conservation land as it is, and neo-military approaches currently appear to be the only short-term solution to protect what exists in war zones. Too little information exists on the state of the forest buffalo in West and Central Africa (albeit to a lesser extent in the latter; Chapter 4); the connectedness between populations, the impact of hunting, subsistence slash-and-burn agriculture and the relation with extractive industries are unknowns (Chapter 17), which prevent wild guesses. Sustainable management of forests by the timber industry is emerging and it could be interesting to further consider the place that the African buffalo could play in these managed forests, and likewise in well-managed, well-guarded oil concessions. Finally, Eastern and southern Africa are the regions in which pockets of the future are currently visible, such as some innovative conservation models (e.g. Kenya, Zambia, Mozambique) and experiences of the commodification of buffalo through private ownership.

The selected methodology has some inherent limits. It is widely acknowledged that the 2×2 matrix carries a very reductionist and quite Manichean view of the world, based on the opposition of extremes. This methodology helps to define a ‘framework of the extremes’ within which potential futures will likely be located on a region or country basis. In addition, one could very well criticize the results as ultimately the products of Westerners’ perceptions about Africa and the dynamics of the African buffalo. While this seems quite opposed to the philosophy of some recent publications about decolonizing the future (Bourgeois et al., 2022), what needs to be taken into account here is that in this process our ways of imagining the future do not intend to frame anyone’s future. To the contrary, we wish to contribute to opening imaginaries and not closing or restricting them. If this work and its methodology give ideas to different people with different origins and backgrounds to undertake such a study, producing additional non-Western imaginaries, we would consider our endeavour successful.

Implications for the Futures of the African Buffalo

The seven synopsis that emerge from Table 18.4 generate different possible futures for African buffalo based on extreme states of the most influential factors on buffalo populations. Among these, some are more or less ‘good’ for African buffalo populations, at least if we consider the number of buffalo as a good indicator of the robustness of the species (as one cannot yet measure the well-being of a buffalo and they cannot tell us when and where they are happy). We have therefore ranked these seven synopses in a gradient of what we perceived as good for buffalo in Table 18.5 and their consequences for conservationists (and others of good will).

Table 18.5 The seven synopses ranked according to what is perceived as good for African buffalo.

#1	African renaissance	Excellent for buffalo and probably stable	Because this is so good for buffalo, conservationists should support these factors in the coming years.
#2	Happy nature	Very good for buffalo but undermining perhaps in the long term	Even though this is good for buffalo there may be inherent danger of changing the genetic disposition of the species, thus making it less resilient. Conservationists should support these socioeconomic factors now, but probably not the selective breeding.
#3	Pauper’s hell	Excellent for buffalo but probably not stable	Even though this is very good for buffalo, its inherent risk of lack of (social) stability leads to the conclusion that the factors leading to this scenario should not be supported by conservationists at present.
#4	AgroAfrica	Reasonably acceptable for buffalo	This appears to be reasonably good for buffalo, but this scenario necessitates on the long term the exchange of buffalo between large protected areas as already is the case for African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus) in southern Africa.
#5	Battleground 2050	Not good for buffalo	This scenario is quite bad for buffalo, necessitating present-day conservationists not to support this political reality and avoid unsustainable use in a land-sharing context.
#6	Self-service	Bad for buffalo as this will not sustain them in the longer term	Even though this appears to be reasonably good for buffalo in the short term, this synopsis is not sustainable, leading to the conclusion that the factors leading to this scenario should not be supported by conservationists at present.
#7	Conservation islands	Very bad for buffalo	Even though this appears to be reasonably good for buffalo in the short term, this scenario is not sustainable, leading to the conclusion that the factors leading to this scenario should not be supported by conservationists at present even though it appears to be the mainstream conservation model at present.

The best scenario appears to be characterized by (i) good governance for all, (ii) sparing land for conservation, (iii) economic intensification on agricultural lands and (iv) land sharing with conservation in combination with sustainable use. The worst scenarios appear to be characterised by (i) African autarky, (ii) high numbers of people farming and/or high numbers of livestock in the countryside and (iii) any unsustainable use of natural resources, including buffalo. A futures analysis can thus objectively guide present-day priority setting and conservationists’ programme choices in a way that is independent of political leanings or contemporary foibles (Figure 18.8).

Figure 18.8 West African savanna buffalo female, Konkombri Hunting Area, Benin.

© Christophe Morio.