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19 - Long- and Short-Term Geomagnetic Prediction

from Part V - Magnetic Fields beyond the Earth and beyond Today

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 October 2019

By
Weijia Kuang ,
Andrew Tangborn ,
Terence Sabaka  and
Robert Tyler
Edited by
Mioara Mandea ,
Monika Korte ,
Andrew Yau  and
Eduard Petrovsky
Mioara Mandea
Affiliation:
Centre National d'études Spatiales, France
Monika Korte
Affiliation:
GeoforschungsZentrum, Helmholtz-Zentrum, Potsdam
Andrew Yau
Affiliation:
University of Calgary
Eduard Petrovsky
Affiliation:
Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic, Prague
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Summary

Prediction of geomagnetic variability depends on the accuracy of geomagnetic field modeling, dynamical modeling of source regions that contribute to geomagnetic signals, and advanced assimilation algorithms that combine effectively the results of geomagnetic field and dynamic models to make accurate estimates of the dynamic states of the sources and, therefore, accurate forecast of geomagnetic variations. Here, an overview of recent research efforts in these three research areas is provided, focusing primarily on geomagnetic variations from the dynamic outer core and from solar and lunar tidal effects, but also including a review of relevant research results and developments. Prediction of weak but periodic tidal phenomena, and of strong but chaotic secular variation showcases two very important new developments which will lead to new opportunities in geomagnetic research and application.

Keywords

Data assimilationgeomagnetic field modelssecular variation
Type
Chapter
Information
Geomagnetism, Aeronomy and Space Weather
A Journey from the Earth's Core to the Sun
 , pp. 312 - 326
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2019

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