The Geopolitics of Xi Jinping's Chinese Dream: Problems and Prospects

Summary

By now it should be clear that Xi Jinping's Chinese Dream to achieve the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049 involves an ambitious geopolitical agenda. This discussion begins with a macrohistorical overview of East Asian geopolitics to provide a slightly different perspective on the motivations and constraints that shape China's desire for great power predominance in East Asia today. It then summarizes the main features of current Chinese geostrategy and concludes by noting certain dilemmas and limitations.

Geopolitics refers to the contest among states to control geographic space in order to gain security against potential enemies, increase power and influence over others, and assure access to markets and resources. The geopolitical strategy of a state traditionally relies upon military power and alliance arrangements, making geopolitics an arena traditionally dominated by great powers.

In the study of geopolitics it is axiomatic that major developments in the balance of power cause states to alter their geostrategies and change the geopolitical status quo. There is no greater development in the balance of power than when a state is added or subtracted from the number of great powers, and today we see China asserting a great power identity and challenging the post-cold war unipolar structure of global politics. Offensive realists argue that when a state reaches for great power status, the desire for security from other great powers compels it to seek hegemony in its home region. If successful, security motivations drive it to weaken other great powers in their respective home regions (Mearsheimer 2014). Thus, few realists would be surprised if China's great power aspirations require strategic dominance in East Asia. The question is whether it develops a suitable geostrategy.

THE GEOPOLITICS OF EAST ASIA IN MACROHISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE

Continental vs. Maritime Spheres

Since the dawn of civilization, the geopolitical heartland or core of East Asia has been the vast fertile region bounded on the north by the Yellow River, the coastal seas to the east, the Pearl River in the south, and the Tibetan plateau and deserts to the west. The rich land and labour resources of the core permitted the rise of East Asian civilization and it became the seat of successive empires.