8 - Bypassing Regionalism? Domestic Politics and Nuclear Energy Security

Summary

Caught between rapidly rising demand for electricity and even faster increases in the price of the fossil fuels needed to generate it, governments across Southeast Asia are turning to nuclear energy. Indonesia and Vietnam are the furthest along. Both expect to have their first nuclear power plants in operation in the late 2010s. But in early 2007, other countries made decisions that may put them on the same path. Thailand's military-led government said it would revive nuclear power plans that had been derailed by the financial crisis of the late 1990s. Thailand expects to bring its first reactor online in 2020. The Philippine government announced it would examine the nuclear option and even consider opening the controversial nuclear plant that was built during the Marcos era but was never used. And Myanmar clinched a deal with Russia to supply its first nuclear research reactor, something it had been seeking for several years. Though too small to generate a supply of electricity, the reactor would mark a major expansion of Myanmar's nuclear capabilities. As of early 2008, Malaysia had no plans to develop nuclear power, but it was conducting a review of energy supplies that included the nuclear option.

Despite their shared interest in nuclear energy and long-standing advocacy of multilateral cooperation, ASEAN members have left the Association almost entirely out of their nuclear plans. This seems particularly surprising in light of nuclear energy's obvious security implications and ASEAN's long-standing commitment to keep regional peace. Moreover, this commitment is embodied, in part, in the treaty that each country signed in 1995 to establish a nuclear-weapons-free zone in Southeast Asia. The Treaty on the Southeast Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone (or SEANWFZ Treaty) not only banned nuclear weapons from the region, but also established guidelines for the peaceful use of nuclear energy by ASEAN members. Yet, as of early 2008, the Association had done nothing to ensure that its members’ policies complied with the treaty's terms.