6 - The Crisis of the German War Economy, 1940–1941

Summary

The output of large parts of the German war economy was, if not quite in crisis, then certainly lagging by the autumn of 1941. It had reached a point where it was struggling to meet the current demands of the field army in Russia fighting in Russia, let alone those raised by the planned large-scale expansion of the Luftwaffe. Against such a backdrop, the idea of escalating the war by dragging another great power into it gives legitimacy to the view put forward by some historians that Hitler was seeking his self-immolation.

A close examination of the sources, however, indicates that Hitler had reached the conclusion that far from having hit a glass ceiling the German economy still possessed considerable slack which could be mobilised by rationalising designs and optimising the allocation of labour and raw materials. As a precedent, he could point to the months of January-April 1940 where a last-minute spurt in productivity had provided much of the ammunition and tanks needed for the campaign in the West. It goes without saying that this forecast mistakenly assumed a marked decrease in the intensity of the fighting in Russia on account of the fall of the Donbass industrial area.