4 - The Rebels

Summary

This chapter examines evidence about when and where rebels formed in Uganda, and why nascent rebels’ initial use of violence is distinctive in its minimal nature – against both state targets and civilians. Quantitative evidence shows that the initial location of rebel group formation is not strongly associated with most factors linked to civil conflict onset in prior work and that rebels often start with sporadic, small attacks against the government. Qualitative evidence from interviews with former insurgents, counterinsurgents, and civilians supports the argument that a lack of explosive, frequent violence in the initial stages was not a mere reflection of rebels’ low capabilities. Instead, rebels’ desire to control the information environment shapes their decision about where to launch and their early uses of violence. The rebels’ initial acts are ambiguous in that the rebels refrain from vociferously and publicly taking “credit” for them, due to their desire to remain clandestine – and they serve an important purpose in gaining information about the adversary’s capabilities.