7 - ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR THE FUTURE

Summary

Despite the rapid growth of Japan's economic role and influence, the exact shape of future economic, political and security relationships in Asia and the Western Pacific remains uncertain. Conflicting and incomplete data appear to support three different scenarios for Japan's role, and for the structure of regional economic, political and military ties during the next decade. These scenarios parallel, to a certain extent, other efforts at scenario building, but differ in their degree of emphasis on economics as the driving factor, and their focus on Asia and the Western side of the Pacific, rather than the Pacific rim.

Three possible alternative futures are discussed below, along with the conditions that would tend to favour their development. Other possibilities certainly could be imagined, but these are intended to be representative of the broad alternative futures that could follow from Japan's growing economic role and influence in the region.

Assumptions and variables

All of the scenarios involve a mix of factors, including actions by Japan and the United States and exogenous factors such as the prevailing global political and economic situation. An important underlying premise in all of the scenarios is that the current widespread perception of a reduced military threat from the former U.S.S.R. will continue into the foreseeable future and that Russia will remain for a long time a relatively negligible economic actor in Asia. The possibility of a JapanRussian rapprochement is within the parameters of the scenarios.

Due to its presently clouded political future, China is treated generally as a constant even though it has the potential to make an important difference in the nature of intra-regional economic ties and the regional power balance. Under different assumptions, China has the potential to be (1) a quiet backwater with modest impact on economic and political patterns, as at present; (2) a dynamic new low cost producer and expanding market; or (3) a highly negative disrupter of regional stability.