5 - PROBLEMS AND PROSPECTS FOR JAPAN'S INFLUENCE IN ASIA

Summary

Japan's record suggests that while its ability to translate its economic power into influence increasingly appears unarguable, a number of deeply rooted problems still limit its capacity to exert global or even regional leadership. Among the more prominent are: uncertainties about the purposes of Japanese activism and its ability to lead; internal political weaknesses; cultural and value system gaps between Japan and other Asia-Pacific countries; the inherent limitations of its aid diplomacy and negative attitudes stemming from Tokyo's past effort to militarily dominate the region.

Uncertainty about Japan's goals and ability to lead

To date, Japan's Asia-Pacific foreign policy initiatives have tended to raise doubts about the purposes of Japanese activism rather than confirm Tokyo's status as a bona fide regional leader. Analysts still question whether Japan really has a clear sense of how it wants to use its growing power. Probably most Japanese would still judge their country as “bereft of a sense of direction, and uncertain about the future”. A minority view is that “Japan is beginning to show a subtle but powerful leadership”, but that a perception gap has opened up in the ways that Japanese and foreigners see the country. Former Foreign Minister Dr Saburo Okita wrote in 1989 that “things are changing very abruptly, and it is important to recognize that Japan is in a transitional phase”. A number of powerful LDP leaders, including Foreign Minister Michio Watanabe, former Secretary General Ichiro Ozawa, and Prime Minister Kiichi Miyazawa have taken outspokenly activist positions regarding Japan's international role.

Lack of credibility of Asia-Pacific political initiatives

Despite its greater activism, Japan's efforts at regional leadership have not borne much fruit thus far or significantly enhanced Tokyo's credibility. Overall assessments of Kaifu's 1989 South Asian tour were not flattering. At the time, commentators concluded that the complexities of regional disputes, and reluctance to appear to take sides, would continue to make Japan more relevant as an aid giver than as a mediator or leader.