10 - “Awakening The Sleeping Bull”: Central Java in the 2019 Indonesian Elections

Summary

Biar gepeng, tetap banteng.

(Even if we are flattened, we’ll remain a bull!)

Slogan of Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan

One of the key provinces contributing to the victory of Joko Widodo (Jokowi) in the 2019 presidential election was Central Java. By achieving a landslide in the province—77.2 per cent of the total votes—Jokowi was able to offset his loss in three major provinces outside Java. Furthermore, Jokowi improved his performance in Central Java by 10.55 percentage points, compared with his performance in the 2014 presidential election. He won all 29 districts and six cities in the province, replicating his victory in 2014. In contrast, his challenger, Prabowo Subianto, not only failed to steal votes from Jokowi's stronghold, but his vote share shrank by 10.6 percentage points, compared with 2014. Prabowo failed to capitalize on the increase in registered voters in Central Java from 27,385,217 in 2014 to 27,896,902 in 2019.

This chapter aims to examine local dynamics in the 2019 elections. The case study is Central Java Province, home to ethnic Javanese and a province with the third largest electorate in the country. Aside from the presidential election, this chapter will look at the fierce competition between political parties in the legislative elections, where 1,046 legislative positions were up for grabs in Central Java. The legislative positions were for national, regional and local parliamentary seats. Because the elections were held simultaneously, this chapter will also examine the coat-tail effects of the presidential election.

The chapter poses three principal questions. First, why did Jokowi win with such a big margin in Central Java despite aggressive attempts by Prabowo's camp to infiltrate the province? Second, why did the Prabowo camp's efforts to mobilize voters through identity politics involving religion seem to be futile in Central Java, compared with its efforts in other parts of Indonesia? Third, why did the Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle or PDI-P, for short) still garner a significant number of votes amid the ferocious competition between political parties in Central Java?

To answer those questions, I conducted fieldwork in several major cities and districts in Central Java (Semarang, Solo, Boyolali, Tegal and Brebes) from February to April 2019.