20 - How History Fades – and Expands

Summary

What is the midpoint date in a chronological list of major events in world history? At what rate does the coverage of more distant times diminish? Analysis of five lists published from 1876 to 2016 shows that the number of entries matters: Shorter lists have earlier midpoints. Normalized to 1000 entries, the midpoint of history is around 1500 CE. All lists show fewer events per century as we move to more distant past, in a coarsely exponential way. But some periods stand out. Frequency of events shows a peak from 400 to 200 BCE and a trough from 100 BCE to 1000 CE. Inclusion of less Eurocentric lists may alter this picture. But the pattern of more entries in more recent times also fits the world population explosion: More people create more memorable events. Combining this population-induced expansion of history with fading of history over time is complicated.