10 - Politics and Security in Southeast Asia: Trends and Challenges

Summary

Introduction

As Southeast Asia entered the twenty-first century, political dynamics and security concerns in the region seemed to enter a new post-Cold War phase characterized by significant leadership changes, political transitions and the rise in prominence of non-traditional security issues.

In recent years, new leaders have emerged in countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand and Singapore mainly through the democratic electoral process whereby major iconic figures like Suharto in Indonesia and Dr Mahathir in Malaysia had relinquished their dominant role in the respective ruling elites. Even one-party states like Vietnam and Laos showed signs of more tolerance, openness and transparency in the political sphere, especially at the grassroots level.

Traditional security threats in the form of insurgencies remained relevant though seemingly diminishing (except in southern Thailand where there has been a revival in the last few years) in Indonesia, Myanmar, Philippines and Thailand. Meanwhile, non-traditional security issues concerning viral epidemics (AIDS or Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, SARS or Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome, and avian flu), tsunamis, narcotics, human trafficking, piracy and terrorism came to the fore in challenging the state's capacity to safeguard human security and maintain the regime's authority and legitimacy.

On the other hand, political stability appeared to have been consolidated in the core of ASEAN (the five original members) until recently when public discontent spawned massive demonstrations on the streets of Manila and Bangkok. Such attempts to topple elected leaders by “people's power” were seen by many observers as a setback for democratic consolidation in the very nations that were touted as examples of liberal democratic political order in the region.

Political Trends in Southeast Asia

The most significant trends in the internal politics of Southeast Asia have been what one scholar called “political transitions” that entailed the replacement of authoritarian rule by more democratic political governance (Indonesia), less idiosyncratic style of leadership (Malaysia), “changing of the guard” and self-renewal of the ruling party (Singapore), unprecedented electoral mandate for the incumbent (Thailand), and a controversial second term for a beleaguered leader (Philippines).