Introduction

Summary

The economic outlook for Southeast Asia for 1996-97 continues to be rosy. The prospects for the ASEAN Six look as favourable as the recent past, though, except for the Philippines, growth will slow down a little in 1996-97 because of measures to rein in inflation. The transitional economies of Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar will also continue to show good performance: growth rates are expected to be maintained at roughly the present levels or to improve slightly in the next two years. However, since agriculture constitutes a large component in most of these countries, the estimates are conditional upon favourable weather.

However, the political outlook is more uncertain than a year ago. While no adverse political and security developments are expected to arise from within Southeast Asia itself, this cannot be said with confidence for the broader East Asian region in view of the tensions over Taiwan, the difficult U.S.-China relations, and political and security uncertainties on the Korean peninsula.

Regional Outlook 1996-97 consists of two parts: Political Outlook and Economic Outlook. They contain sections on the ASEAN Six and on the Indochinese countries and Myanmar, respectively. The Political Outlook begins with a short section on the broader Asia-Pacific setting, for what happens there can have crucial implications for Southeast Asia.

Different authors have contributed to this volume and we would like to thank them for their contributions. We would also like to thank Dr Reza Y. Siregar and Dr Mya Than for compiling the basic indicators of the Southeast Asian economies in the appendices. These have been obtained from various published sources and are included merely as background data that readers may find useful.