4 - Prospects of East Asian Community and the Role of China

Summary

The prospects of the East Asian Community depend upon the general development of economic, political and security situation in East Asia. In the coming years, factors of stabilization of general situation in East Asia will prevail over factors of destabilization. Competition among the main players in East Asia will escalate. However interests in cooperation in economy, energy, antiterrorism war, fighting pandemic and ecological threats will balance the competition tendencies. Growing economic and security inter-dependence between China and the United States, and between China and Japan will draw up “limitation lines” of possible deterioration of China–U.S. and China– Japan relationship, which all the three countries will not cross under any conflict situation.

China will remain the most dynamic element in the development of East Asia's economic, political and security situation. The growth of China's economy will make its leaders look for a new global and regional political positioning of the country. China's capital export overseas, started in 2005, will be a decisive motive for the activation of security diplomacy by Beijing. East Asia, objectively, will be most interested in uniting the economic resources of Japan, China, South Korea and ASEAN in order to maintain high economic growth and strengthen East Asian positions on the global markets against the growing influence of the American economy and European integration.

Marketization and globalization of the Chinese economy, for the first time in history, will plant roots for real, wide-ranging regional integration in East Asia. However, an imbalance of military power in East Asia creates impediments to regional cooperation. The other impediment is the perception of China by the West as, economically, “a market friend”, even though a serious competitor, but politically, “a Communist foe” — meaning monopoly of the Communist Party of China (CPC) on political power.

As long as this dual perception of China remains, it will be difficult to expect any real breakthrough in the creation of a multilateral security system in East Asia. The main threats and challenges to East Asia's security are linked to the main factors of stability in the region.