Looking to the future

Summary

ABSTRACT.The early 21^st century has been marked by growing instability at sea even as the value and economic significance of seaborne trade has continued to increase. The relative decline of both US and NATO naval power, and the rise of challengers, notably China, are one factor. These in turn have provoked the growth of other navies such as Japan, India and Australia. New weapons such as drones and anti-ship missiles, whose effects it is too soon to evaluate fully, introduce another element of uncertainty. All these are aspects of the naval situation, but that in turn is not selfcontained but bound up with land-based aircraft and missiles.

RÉSUMÉ.Le début du XXI^e siècle a été marqué par une instabilité croissante en mer bien que la valeur et l'importance économique du commerce maritime n'aient cessé d'augmenter. Le déclin respectif de la puissance navale des États-Unis et de l'OTAN et la montée de pays concurrents comme la Chine en est un des facteurs. Cela a provoqué le développement d'autres marines nationales telles que celles du Japon, de l'Inde et de l'Australie. l'arrivée de nouvelles armes comme les drones et les missiles antinavires, dont on ne peut aujourd'hui mesurer entièrement les conséquences, introduit un autre élément d'incertitude mais ne constitue qu'un aspect de la situation navale, ces armes ne fonctionnant pas de manière autonome mais étant liées à des missiles et avions basés au sol.

The significance of naval power to the 21^st century can be seen in the range of uses that are pursued and planned. That states have different assessments of what naval power can offer them and how it might threaten them is scarcely new, but these differences have become more prominent due to political, economic and technological developments over the last decade. These developments will be considered first, and then attention will be devoted to the different strategies of individual states. This topic will be linked to the salience of sea power, and not only for major states but also for weaker counterparts. Last, there will be consideration of possible scenarios and changes in the future. Perhaps far more than developments on land or in the air, the future of navies is difficult to predict. There have been more changes in weapon systems and platforms at sea than on land or in the air.