5 - Comparative Perspective

Summary

Although there are multiple aspects in which Cuba differs from other political and social systems, the case of Cuba is not analytically unique. Many other countries have undergone transitions from closed economies to market-ori-ented systems, and from authoritarian regimes to more democratic regimes. Internal order has been affected to different degrees; some countries have managed to conduct orderly transitions, while others have had severe increases in crime and violence as they liberalize. These cases help us foresee what may happen to public security and illegal activity in Cuba as this nation liberalizes. From this information, we can infer descriptive patterns, causal mechanisms, and potential solutions.

From the existing research on democratic transitions, we can observe wide variation in the trajectories that different countries take after they liberalize. There is also a wide variation in citizens’ welfare after said liberalizations.

Other comparative work on Cuba has warned of the potential problems that a structure similar to that of the former communist bloc could have upon Cuba's transition to democracy, most notably the work of Díaz-Briquets and Pérez-López, which focuses on corruption, and Glynn et al., who make general observations on emerging economies.

In the following subsections, I explore cases that resemble Cuba in specific attributes: countries in the former Soviet bloc, Latin America after the Third Wave of democratization, China, and Vietnam. The objective of this chapter is not to go into detail regarding these cases, but to focus on those aspects that may add to our understanding of Cuba's present and help us to discern its future.

The countries in the former communist bloc in Central and Eastern Europe are a useful comparison group (for which there is ample and solid research) for studying the specific consequences of economic and, hypothetical, political liberalization in Cuba.

These countries suffered rapid and drastic transformations to their social and political institutions, which altered the order that was rigidly enforced by the state during the days of communism. Crime, violence, and corruption worsened in some cases, but not in others. The historic legacy of communism still haunts these countries in various ways.