7 - World Energy Outlook

Summary

In his keynote address, Claude Mandil, explored the implications of increased energy demand from developing regions and focused on three pillars in the formulation of sound energy policy and key objectives in the pursuit of energy supply security. He also highlighted the recently released IEA publication, World Energy Outlook 2006.

Mr Mandil prefaced the core messages of his speech by outlining two alternative visions of the energy future. Using the reference scenario of the current global primary energy demand, the speaker presented an under-invested, vulnerable and poor energy future and argued for a clean, clever, and competitive outlook. He highlighted that current energy consumption patterns indicate that global energy demand was set to grow by more than 50 per cent over the next twenty-five years, reaching more than 17 billion tonnes of oil equivalent (compared to 11.2 in 2004). By 2030, fossil fuels (oil, coal, and gas) would retain the lion's share of the energy mix — with oil remaining as the single largest fuel in the global primary energy mix. Projections of energy demand by region indicate that within a decade developing countries will become the biggest consumers accounting for two-thirds of the increase in demand. Against this backdrop, global community is faced with a choice in charting new directions for future energy needs. Countries must modify policy-making process and alter the dark trajectory of global energy future.

The Three E's of Formulating Sound Energy Policy

Mr Mandil stressed that current energy consumption was not sustainable and there was an ugent need to formulate sustainable energy policy at national and international levels. Policy-makers need to adhere to a three-pillar approach: energy security and supply, economic growth, and environmental protection. With the projected surge in energy demand over the next twenty-five years, the existing policy is not sustainable since it is inconsistent with the three pillars.

Environmental Protection

Based on projections of energy-related CO₂ emissions by fuel type, there will be a 55 per cent increase in CO₂ emissions within next twenty-five years.