Southeast Asia's Regional Autonomy Under Stress

Summary

Political and security developments during 2015 posed major challenges to the Association of South East Asian Nations’ (ASEAN) promotion of regional autonomy and community building. The vexed issue of maritime disputes in the South China Sea took a new turn with China's accelerated construction of artificial islands, Japan's stepped-up support for claimant states, and the initiation of freedom of navigation operational patrols (FONOP) by a U.S. warship and aircraft. These three developments illustrated once again the difficulties confronting ASEAN in maintaining Southeast Asia's autonomy in the face of intensified major power rivalry. During the year ASEAN continued to press China for an expeditious conclusion of a Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea.

During 2015 ASEAN encountered five significant challenges to its efforts at community building: the Rohingya refugee crisis; the flare-up of border tensions between Cambodia and Vietnam; competing organizational forms of regional economic integration; domestic political transitions in Thailand, Cambodia and Myanmar; and the resurgence of international terrorism.

South China Sea Dispute

China's Artificial Islands

In 2015 China accelerated construction of infrastructure on seven artificial islands in the Spratly archipelago — Fiery Cross Reef, Subi Reef, Mischief Reef, South Johnston Reef, Gaven Reef, Hughes Reef and Cuarteron Reef. Between February and September China completed construction of a three-kilometre-long runway on Fiery Cross. This became operational in January 2016 when China conducted three test flights by civilian passenger aircraft. In mid-year China began building a second airstrip on Subi, while in September China commenced preparatory work for a third runway on Mischief Reef. When completed, the total length of China's airfields (9,000 metres) will be more than twice as long as the four airstrips maintained by Malaysia (1,368 m), Taiwan (1,195 m), the Philippines (1,000 m) and Vietnam (500 m). With the exception of Vietnam, all the runways in the South China Sea will be able to accommodate jet fighters; but only China will be able to operate bombers.

During 2015, U.S. spokespersons repeatedly called on all claimants to halt land reclamation and new construction and refrain from militarizing the features that they occupied. For example, on 18 November President Barack Obama told a press conference in Manila, after meeting his Philippine counterpart Benigno Aquino, “We agreed on the need for bold steps to lower tensions including pledging to halt further reclamation, new construction and militarization of disputed areas in the South China Sea.”