Timor-Leste in 2015: Petro-Politics or Sustainable Growth

Summary

The year 2015 in Timor-Leste was marked first and foremost by the withdrawal of Xanana Gusmão from the Prime Minister position he had held since 2007, and the gradual beginning of a long called for leadership transition. His resignation has not, as some had thought, signalled his complete withdrawal from political life. Instead, his stepping down was accompanied by the restructuring of the Timorese government, with Gusmão now serving as Minister for Planning and Strategic Investment, a role in which he is expected to continue the focus on infrastructural development advanced during his time as Prime Minister.

The security situation remains one of overall stability, in spite of relatively contained security incidents, which this year culminated with the death of rebel leader “Mauk Moruk” in a clash with Timorese security forces. In the coming years, Timor-Leste and its new government faces the challenge of how to diversify its economy away from its current heavy dependence on the Petroleum Fund to finance its national development. This requires balancing popular demands and governmental preference for fast-paced “big development” infrastructure projects with more long-term and sustainable initiatives less dependent on the petroleum industry and targeted more at creating viable employment opportunities for the country's youth.

Leadership Transition

Since the beginning of his political reign, former resistance leader, later President and lastly Prime Minister Xanana Gusmão more frequently expressed his intention to withdraw from formal Timorese politics. By early 2015, however, amidst growing critcism of his leadership style both internationally and locally, coupled with domestic calls for a leadership transition, he regularly aired the idea of his impending resignation. On 6 February 2015, Gusmão formally handed in his resignation as Prime Minister, a role he had held since parliamentary elections in 2007. The 2007 elections had signalled Gusmão's real entry into party politics, when he resigned from the Presidential position he had held since independence and launched a new political party, Conselho Nacional de Reconstrução de Timor (CNRT). Since then, he served as Prime Minister in two governments, first between 2007 and 2012, and again between 2012 and up until his resignation in early 2015.

His oft-repeated intention to resign had long prompted speculation about possible successors to Gusmão, with international commentators expecting that his replacement would come from within his own party. However, Timorese politics is rarely predictable.