I - Pax Americana

Summary

It is inevitable perhaps that historical analogies should become insistent at turning points in history. So it is with the end of the Cold War, a denouement that rewrote the rules for great powers such as the United States, middle powers like India, and small states like Singapore. At issue was the very nature of the global order. In The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, John Mearsheimer notes that bipolar systems tend to be the most peaceful; unbalanced multipolar systems are the most conflict-prone; and balanced multipolar systems fall between the two extremes. Bipolar systems are characterized by two great powers neither of which is decidedly more powerful than the other. Unbalanced multipolar systems are dominated by three or more great powers, one of them being a potential hegemon. Balanced multipolar systems are dominated by three or more great powers, none of which aspires to be the hegemon. In bipolar systems, the most stable of the three systems, great-power wars occur infrequently and, when they do, are likely to see a great power fight a minor power, not the rival great power. Unbalanced multipolar systems are very dangerous, primarily because potential hegemons are likely to fight all the other great powers. In balanced multipolarity, greatpower war is more likely to occur than it is in bipolarity but less likely than in unbalanced multipolarity. If wars do occur between the great powers, they are likely to be one-on-one or two-on-one engagements and not system-wide conflicts. In the wake of the Cold War, Mearsheimer argues, Europe remains bipolar, with Russia and America featuring as the region's principal rivals. Northeast Asia, by contrast, is a region with a balanced multipolar system in which China, Russia, and the United States are the three great powers, and none with the character of a potential hegemon. While the United States is a hegemon in the Western Hemisphere, it is not a global hegemon; it is certainly the most powerful actor in Northeast Asia, but it is “an offshore balancer without territorial aspirations”.