5 - How Violence Affects Voting: Coercion, Persuasion, and Backlash

Summary

This chapter analyzes the effects of violence – via coercion and persuasion – on voting. Existing research provides some evidence that violence can be used to prevent voters from turning out to vote. However, an analysis of the relationship between violence and turnout in Kenyan elections in the 1990s finds no relationship between violence on the one hand, and the aggregate level of voter registration or turnout on the other, suggesting that the relationship between violence, turn-out and electoral geography may be less straightforward than previously thought. On persuasion, the analysis finds consistent evidence of a large and broad-based voter backlash against violence, including among the coethnic voters that politicians rely on to win elections. Furthermore, while antagonistic ethnic rhetoric does appear to increase the likelihood of violence breaking out, it is not a useful strategy for mobilizing coethnic support. These results suggest that voter backlash against violence and violent rhetoric may undermine the efficacy of violence as an electoral tactic, and they help explain why violence is not associated with better outcomes for candidates in real elections.