Taiwan, Japan and India

Summary

What are some of the ways in which the Taiwan issue might be resolved in the foreseeable future?

There are probably two main outcomes rather than resolutions because I'm not sure whether “resolution” would be the right word. Outcomes are possible. One is a long-term understanding reached between China and the United States to leave the issue more or less as it is, in a kind of status quo in which the Chinese will not make any military moves and the United States will not do anything to recognize Taiwanese independence. Beijing and Washington would agree that this is a matter for China and Taiwan to resolve one day — which is more or less the status quo — but with the difference that both sides would acknowledge more openly that they would leave the situation this way indefinitely. However, such an outcome would depend on so many variables that I'm not confident that it is sustainable. There are many factors: the leadership in China, the leadership in United States, but also developments within Taiwan. None of these things is predictable because they are each contingent on the others so that there are several combinations and permutations there which are difficult to calculate. But this is something that could last a long time, largely because neither the United States nor China wants to fight over this matter, and because Taiwan is prepared to accept that it does not have much choice since China's military takeover of Taiwan cannot be ruled out.

This cannot be ruled out because you could have a very aggressive group of leaders in China who have decided that the time for reunification has come because the Taiwanese leadership is getting difficult and seeking help from all over the world to recognize Taiwan as an independent state. However, I believe that this scenario is not likely because the ramifications would be immense; the costs would be enormous for everybody concerned.

The other outcome is that, eventually, the leadership on both sides would reach a point where younger leaders would take over and be less prepared to risk all just to be one country — reunification in the case of China, and independence in the case of Taiwan. They could negotiate about specific details and come to a lasting compromise.