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4 - Future climate of the Middle East

from Part I - Past, present and future climate

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  26 April 2011

By
Emily Black ,
David Brayshaw ,
Julia Slingo  and
Brian Hoskins
Edited by
Steven Mithen  and
Emily Black
Emily Black
Affiliation:
University of Reading
David Brayshaw
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Julia Slingo
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Brian Hoskins
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Steven Mithen
Affiliation:
University of Reading
Emily Black
Affiliation:
University of Reading
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Summary

ABSTRACT

A survey of publicly available data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) suggests that the Middle East will become significantly drier as greenhouse gas levels rise – with potentially devastating consequences. Simulating the climate of the eastern Mediterranean and the Middle East is, however, a tough challenge for climate models and those results should be interpreted with caution. The cyclones which migrate from west to east across the Mediterranean in winter and early spring, and which deliver much of the annual precipitation to the Middle East, are not well resolved by global climate models of the type included in the IPCC archive. Furthermore, the local climate is modified by coastlines and mountains throughout the region. For these reasons we provide a supplement to the IPCC results with simulations from a regional climate model. As in the global models, the regional model projects that, under an A2 (business-as-usual) scenario, precipitation will decrease significantly in the Middle East. Further investigation of the daily statistics of the weather, along with tracking of weather systems in the present day and future climate scenarios, suggest that the dominant mechanism for these changes is a reduction in the strength of the Mediterranean storm track. The Mediterranean storm track is fairly well simulated by the regional climate model, increasing confidence in this projection. […]

Type
Chapter
Information
Water, Life and Civilisation
Climate, Environment and Society in the Jordan Valley
 , pp. 51 - 62
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2011

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