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Series:   Elements in Business Strategy

Scenario Thinking

A Historical Evolution of Strategic Foresight

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 September 2018

R. Bradley MacKay  and
Peter McKiernan
R. Bradley MacKay
Affiliation:
University of St Andrews, Scotland
Peter McKiernan
Affiliation:
University of Strathclyde

Summary

This Element infuses established scenario planning routines with an exploration of cognitive reasoning, by contextualising scenario thinking within the wider human endeavour of grappling with future uncertainties. A study of ancient civilisations shows that scenario thinking is not new, but has evolved significantly since ancient times. By de-coupling scenario thinking from scenario planning, it is elevated as the essential ingredient in managerial foresight projects. The historical theme continues, focussing on the evolution of modern scenario planning, by way of the French and Anglo-American schools of thought, using the intuitive logics methodology. Archival research has discovered early contributions in the UK around the development and use of scenario thinking in public policy, which has been overlooked in many received histories. Finally, the usefulness of scenario thinking for strategic management is challenged here and the argument that it is a heuristic device for overcoming cognitive biases and making better strategic decisions is refined.
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Keywords

scenario planningscenario thinkingforesightstrategic management
Type
Element
Information
Series: Elements in Business Strategy
Online ISBN: 9781108571494
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication: 04 October 2018

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