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Follow the Pollsters: Inaccuracies in Media Coverage of the Horse-race during the 2008 Canadian Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 May 2013

François Pétry  and
Frédérick Bastien
François Pétry*
Affiliation:
Université Laval
Frédérick Bastien*
Affiliation:
Université de Montréal
*
François Pétry, Département de science politique, Université Laval, Cité Universitaire, Québec QC, G1K 7P4. Email: Francois.petry@pol.ulval.ca
Frédérick Bastien, Département de science politique, Université de Montréal, C.P. 6128, succursale Centre-ville, Montréal QC, H3C 3J7.
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Abstract

Abstract. We identify frequent inaccuracies in journalistic interpretations of the horse race (“who is ahead?”) and of change over time (“who is gaining?”) in poll reports during the Canadian election of 2008. We test two explanations. The “mistaken mindset” hypothesis holds that journalists exaggerate the horse race because they systematically miscalculate the margin of error. The “follow-the-pollster” hypothesis holds that journalists follow the horse-race interpretations that they find in pollsters' reports. We find strong support for the “follow-the-pollster” hypothesis in the data and in interviews with pollsters and journalists and conclude that pollsters' reports should be a key element to consider in any attempt to improve the level of accuracy in media reports of the horse race.

Résumé. Les journalistes ont souvent commis des erreurs d'interprétation de la marge d'erreur dans les résultats de sondages pendant la campagne électorale canadienne de 2008. Cela les a conduits à surestimer l'avance du parti gagnant et le changement dans le score d'un parti entre deux sondages successifs. Comment expliquer ces erreurs fréquentes? Une première hypothèse affirme que cette surestimation provient du fait que les journalistes se trompent systématiquement dans le calcul de la marge d'erreur. Selon une deuxième hypothèse, les journalistes connaissent tellement mal la marge d'erreur qu'ils se fient à l'interprétation qu'en font les maisons de sondage. Les données empiriques et les réponses aux questions d'entretiens soutiennent la deuxième hypothèse. Nous en concluons que pour mieux porter fruits, les efforts pour améliorer l'interprétation de la marge d'erreur devraient cibler les maisons de sondage autant que les journalistes.

Type
Research Article
Information
Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique , Volume 46 , Issue 1 , March 2013 , pp. 1 - 26
Copyright
Copyright © Canadian Political Science Association 2013 

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