Preliminary Prediction of the Strength of the 24th 11-Year Solar Cycle

Abstract

A suggested method is proposed to forecast the general features of the 11- year solar activity principle cycle. It is based upon the count of lengths and durations of spotless events, prevailing in the preceding minimum of the coming new cycle. The method has been successfully applied to predict the strengths and time of rises for the $22^{nd}$ and $23^{rd}$ 11-year cycles. The proposed precursor technique is further developed to make preliminary prediction of the maximum relative sunspot number and the time of rise of the $24^{th}$ 11-year cycle. The predicted values of these parameters are found to be $90.7\pm9.2$ and $4.6 \pm1.2$ year respectively. In addition, neural, Fuzzy neural and genetic algorithms have been also applied for the confirmation of the predicted results. A comparison with the early predictions used by other methods is given.