The so-called Flyvbjerg database is the largest source of data on the performance of major investment projects. It has generated influential analyses of the magnitude of and reasons for cost overruns and demand shortfalls in major projects. Those analyses have demonstrated, among other things, the systematic presence of large forecast errors in both construction costs and in user demand in the first year of operation. They have also linked those results to the social welfare consequences of the underlying projects, suggesting that the large and systematic forecast errors are indicative of welfare destruction. Given how influential those analyses have been, this paper examines the link between the database, empirical analyses thereof, and social benefit–cost analysis (BCA). To that end, both the measurement of variables in the database and the estimation of forecast errors are contrasted against BCA. The conditions for the estimated forecast errors to approximate those obtained from a BCA are spelled out, and the scope for drawing welfare conclusions based on those estimates is discussed. Furthermore, numerical simulations are presented to explore whether the estimated forecast errors do indeed imply likely welfare destruction. The simulations suggest that as large as the forecast errors are, welfare destruction is no foregone conclusion.

Both Republican and Democratic administrations make regulatory and funding decisions with close reference to benefit–cost analysis (BCA). With respect to regulation, there has been a great deal of academic discussion of BCA and its limits, but almost no attention has been paid to the role of BCA in government funding. That is a serious gap, not least in connection with climate-related risks, such as wildfire, drought, extreme heat, and flooding. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular A-94 sets out guidelines for the BCA required when people are applying to many federal discretionary grant programs. Through Circular A-94, OMB has long required applicants to demonstrate that the benefits of their projects would exceed the costs. But under Circular A-94 as it stood for many years, efficiency-based BCA could produce results that fail to maximize welfare and that are also highly inequitable. The 2023 revision of Circular A-94 focuses more directly on welfare and equity, which are now – not uncontroversially – being brought directly into policy. At the same time, the new Circular A-94 raises fresh questions about how best to promote welfare, and to consider equity, in practice. This article explains the economic foundations for promoting welfare through distributional weighting – and how the old BCA guidance fell short. It then offers recommendations on how to operationalize distributional weighting on the ground specifically for government spending programs – and for BCA more broadly.

This study develops a generalized evaluation framework that can be used to quantify the financial, economic, stakeholder, and environmental impacts of renewable energy support programs. The application of this framework is demonstrated by evaluating the feed-in tariff (FIT) program for solar distributed energy resources (DER) in Ontario, Canada. Our analysis reveals that Ontario’s FIT program has successfully promoted the adoption of solar DER across communities. However, the program has caused inequitable societal outcomes through a cross-subsidization with a present value of 9 CAD billion, paid for by the electricity consumer base for the benefit of only the 0.06 percent of electricity consumers who could install solar systems. The cost imposed on the Canadian economy ranges from 2.86 to 5.37 CAD billion, depending on the discount rate applied. The sensitivity analysis results indicate that the burden of this program on the Canadian economy would have been reduced by 50 percent if the program had been delayed and implemented in 2016 instead of 2010 due to the declining trend in solar system investment costs. The lessons from this analysis provide insights for designing future environmental and emission reduction policies.

Redistribution generates equity benefits and deadweight loss. A canonical result in economic theory holds that policymakers generally cannot escape the problem of deadweight loss by redistributing through non-tax rules. Nonetheless, the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) released a revised framework for regulatory analysis in November 2023 that encouraged federal agencies to consider distributional benefits – but not the deadweight loss of redistribution – when choosing which non-tax rules to promulgate. By omitting deadweight loss from distributional analysis, OMB’s framework will lead to inaccurate estimates of the welfare effects of regulatory changes and will leave agencies vulnerable to legal attack on the ground that they have ignored an important aspect of regulatory redistribution in their decision-making. This article illustrates how agencies can incorporate deadweight loss into distributional analysis and thereby place their redistributive rules on firmer economic and legal footing. It shows how the “elasticity of taxable income” approach – widely used by tax economists – can be modified to the regulatory context so that agencies can estimate the deadweight loss of redistributive regulations while incurring relatively modest additional analytical burdens. Explicitly incorporating deadweight loss into distributional analysis will provide the public with a more accurate view of the welfare consequences of regulatory actions and will make regulations more robust to legal challenges.

This paper conducts a benefit–cost analysis of expanding agricultural research and development (R&D) in the Global South. We extend a recent modeling exercise that used IFPRI’s IMPACT model to estimate the investments required to reduce the global prevalence of hunger below 5%. After 35 years, the increased funding is estimated to increase agricultural output by 10%, reduce the prevalence of hunger by 35%, reduce food prices by 16%, and increase per capita incomes by 4% relative to a counterfactual where funding continues to rise on historical trends. Using an 8% discount rate, the net present value of the costs of agricultural R&D are estimated at $61 billion for the next 35 years, while the net present benefits in terms of net economic surplus (the sum of consumer and producer surplus) are estimated at $2.1 trillion. The central estimate of the benefit–cost ratio (BCR) is 33, consistent with previous research documenting high average returns to agricultural research and development. The central BCR reported in this study places the intervention at the 91st percentile of all previous Copenhagen Consensus BCRs in agriculture, and 87th percentile for all BCRs regardless of sector. Agricultural R&D is likely one of the best uses of resources for the remainder of the Sustainable Development Goals and decades beyond.

Governments need tools to analyze trade-offs for freshwater policy, yet valuation estimates from the literature can be difficult to deploy in a policy setting. Obstacles to benefit transfer include (i) difficulties in scaling up local estimates, (ii) water quality attributes that cannot be linked to policy, and (iii) surveys positing large, unrealistic water quality changes. Focusing on freshwater rivers and streams in New Zealand, we develop and implement a nationwide discrete choice stated preference study aimed at future benefit transfer. The stated provision mechanism and environmental commodity being valued are specified at the regional council level, which is the administrative unit for policy implementation. The survey is administered on a national scale with three attributes – nutrients, water clarity, and E. coli levels – which were chosen to align with government policy levers and salience to the public. Estimation results demonstrate positive and significant willingness to pay values for improvements in each attribute, with magnitudes that are comparable to a recent referendum vote on a water quality tax. To illustrate the utility of our study, we apply the results to a recent policy analyzed by New Zealand’s Ministry for the Environment and estimate nationwide annual benefits of NZ $115 million ($77 million USD).

This paper presents new benefit–cost estimates for the Tulsa universal pre-K program. These calculations are based on estimated effects, from two recent papers, of Tulsa pre-K on high-school graduation rates and college attendance rates of students who were in kindergarten in the fall of 2006. In the current paper, educational effects from these prior papers are used to infer lifetime earnings effects. Our conservative estimates suggest that per pre-K participant, the present value of earnings effects in 2021 dollars is $25,533, compared with program costs of $9,628, for a benefit–cost ratio of 2.65. Compared to prior benefit–cost studies of Tulsa pre-K, this benefit–cost ratio is below what was predicted from Tulsa pre-K’s effects on kindergarten test scores, but above what was predicted from Tulsa pre-K’s effects on grade retention by ninth grade. This fading and recovery of predicted pre-K effects as children go through K-12 and then enter adulthood is consistent with prior research. It suggests that pre-K may have important effects on “soft skills,” such as persisting in school, and reminds us that short-term studies of pre-K provide useful information for public policy.

The impact and economic merits of President Biden’s Executive Order 13985 on equity depend on how the executive order is implemented. While policy discussion to date has focused on equitable outcomes, we propose framing risk equity policies in terms of equitable risk tradeoff rates based on six policy guidelines. The starting point for ex ante evaluation of equity for mortality risk policies should be the symmetric application of the value of a statistical life (VSL) to all groups. Because of the substantial heterogeneity in VSLs by income and demographic characteristics, symmetric tradeoff rates generate subsidies and deficits relative to private values of risk. Efforts to provide for distributional preferences should be grounded in an understanding of the differentials already provided through application of a uniform VSL. Targeting government programs to specific groups ex ante should be coupled with estimates of the efficiency loss based on symmetric tradeoff rates and the implicit tradeoff rate ratio relative to the average VSL needed to support the redistributive policy. Here, we propose equity guidance that could be incorporated in a revised version of Office of Management and Budget Circular A-4. We contrast the ex ante equity guidance approach with the ex post risk equity evaluation procedure that is incorporated in the Biden Administration’s recently proposed Justice40 plan, where 40% of the benefits of existing programs must be targeted to certain minority groups without ex post examination of their cost effectiveness either feasible or currently planned.

The Biden administration has made equity a priority when issuing regulations, encouraging agencies to ensure that their regulations appropriately benefit and do not inappropriately burden disadvantaged groups. But scholarly examinations of agencies’ practices to date on understanding the distributional consequences of their regulations and on promoting equity have revealed significant gaps. In particular, agencies pay very little attention to the incidence of the costs of their regulations. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, for example, rarely considers the incidence of regulatory costs among disadvantaged groups, despite being an agency that conducts relatively complete benefit–cost analyses and explicitly analyzes environmental justice implications of its regulations. But this cost-blindness is a mistake; it presents a missed opportunity to use the current equity-focused momentum to make real improvements for disadvantaged groups that could have long-lasting effects. This essay calls for agencies to give more attention to the incidence of regulatory costs in order to identify needs and opportunities for grants and investments to disadvantaged groups. This approach could provide much-needed direction for a program like the Biden administration’s Justice40 initiative.

The value of statistical life (VSL) is arguably the most important number in benefit–cost analyses of environmental, health, and transportation policies. However, agencies have used a wide range of VSL values. One reason may be the embarrassment of riches when it comes to VSL studies. While meta-analysis is a standard way to synthesize information across studies, we now have multiple competing meta-analyses and reviews. Thus, to analysts, picking one such meta-analysis may feel as hard as picking a single “best study.” This article responds by taking the meta-analysis another step, estimating a meta-analysis (or mixture distribution) of seven meta-analyses. The baseline model yields a central VSL of $8.0 m, with a 90 % confidence interval of $2.4–$14.0 m. The provided code allows users to easily change subjective weights on the studies, add new studies, or change adjustments for income, inflation, and latency.

Rising flood damages have prompted local communities to implement buyout and property acquisition programmes to eliminate repetitive losses for at-risk properties. However, buyouts are often costly to implement and are reactionary solutions to flooding. This study quantifies the benefits of acquiring vacant private properties in flood-prone areas rather than acquiring such properties after they are built up. Using a geodesign framework that integrates concepts and analytical approaches derived from geographical, spatial and statistical-based disciplines, we analyse vacant properties with high development potential that intersect current and future floodplain areas in Houston (TX, USA). We use geospatial proximity analysis to select candidate properties, land-use prediction modelling to estimate future development and sea-level rise and benefit–cost analysis to assess the economic viability of buyouts. The results indicate that cumulative avoided flood losses exceed the cost of vacant land acquisition by a factor of nearly two to one, and up to a factor of ten to one in selected areas. This study emphasizes the benefits of proactive property buyouts that focus on acquiring parcels before they are built up, while also avoiding the social and institutional problems associated with traditional buyout programmes.

Since its introduction to the field of environmental and natural resource economics in the late 1960s, existence value has faced several critiques from economists, psychologists, and philosophers. Critics have taken aim at the notion’s conceptual ambiguity and lack of connection to observable behavior, its incompatibility with cognitive processes and its sensitivity to cognitive biases, and ethical shortcomings in applying existence values to environmental decisionmaking. Unlike some critiques of existence value that draw on cognitive and ethical frameworks for decisionmaking fundamentally at odds with stated preference methods and benefit–cost analysis (BCA), this paper takes as given the use and adequacy of both. It focuses on challenges to existence value per se, with respect to the ability of existence value estimates to contribute to benefit–cost analyses in a way that is consistent with qualities of BCA that its proponents value: the objectivity, commensurability, and moral salience of the values analyzed. In light of the challenges, inclusion of existence value in benefit–cost analyses is found to inevitably compromise the quality of the BCA with respect to each criterion.

What is the benefit from obtaining more precise values of environmental or other public goods through surveys or other information gathering? In the value of information (VOI) problem studied here, a buyer who wishes to preserve a resource sets a price to offer a seller without knowing precisely its protection value, B, nor its value to the seller, V. The VOI from more precise information about B is important for environmental and natural resource valuation, but is typically not quantified nor compared to valuation costs. More precise environmental values reduce the frequency of two types of mistakes (protecting the resource when it should not be; and not protecting it when it should), and increases ex ante welfare. We apply our analysis to Amazon rainforest protection, focusing on the “value of perfect information,” VOPI, which, we show through simulations, typically exceeds realistic valuation costs, justifying significant valuation expenditures. VOPI also depends on the nature of buyer–seller interactions, and takes its highest value when the buyer has full concern for the seller’s outcome. Our paper proposes and prepares the base for a new, needed, field in applied welfare economics, the “benefit–cost analysis of public-good valuation studies.”

A commonly held perception is that an elite graduate degree can “scrub” a less prestigious but less costly undergraduate degree. Using data from the National Survey of College Graduates from 2003 to 2017, this article examines the relationship between the status of undergraduate degrees and earnings among those with elite postbaccalaureate degrees. Few graduates of non-selective institutions earn postbaccalaureate degrees from elite institutions, and even when they do, undergraduate institutional prestige continues to be positively related to earnings overall as well as among those with specific postbaccalaureate degrees including business, law, medicine, and doctoral. Among those who earn a graduate degree from an elite institution, the present value of the earnings advantage to having both an undergraduate and a graduate degree from an elite institution generally greatly exceeds any likely cost advantage from attending a less prestigious undergraduate institution.

In this article, we conduct a number of benefit–cost analyses to clarify whether the establishment of ragweed in Denmark should be prevented (pure prevention) or if the damage from this invasive species should be mitigated (pure mitigation). The main impact of the establishment of ragweed in Denmark would be a substantial increase in the number of allergy cases, which we use as a measure of the physical damage from this species. As valuation methods, we use both the cost-of-illness and benefit transfer methods to quantify the total gross benefits of these two policy actions. Based on the idea of an invasion function, we identify the total and average net benefits under both prevention and mitigation and find that all are significantly positive regardless of the valuation method. Therefore, both prevention and mitigation are beneficial policy actions, but the total and average net benefits under mitigation are larger than those under prevention in all the scenarios we consider. This finding implies that the former policy action is more beneficial. Despite this result, we propose that prevention, not mitigation, may be the proper policy because of information externalities, altruistic preferences, possible catastrophic events, and ethical considerations.

The Nariva Swamp on the island of Trinidad in the Caribbean is being degraded due to increasing human activity. However, its conservation is desirable, as it is an internationally recognized wetland. The study examined an ecotourism project, with an emphasis on community participation, as a conservation approach to the Swamp, via benefit–cost analysis, where the benefits of conservation were measured by contingent valuation. Contingent valuation showed that the residents of Trinidad were willing to pay an average of $56 for conserving the Swamp. The analysis also showed that ecotourism represents an economically feasible use of ecologically fragile resources of this wetland.

Willingness-to-pay (WTP) values and willingness-to-accept (WTA) values have received considerable attention, but the role of reference-dependence effects is more diverse. Policies involving cost and risk may have reference point effects with respect to both cost and risk, leading to four potential valuation measures. Experimental evidence for water quality policies suggests that the cost reference effects are particularly influential in that context. There is, however, no evidence of significant reference effects for labor market estimates of the value of a statistical life. Sound application of benefit values other than WTP measures requires pertinent empirical evidence and an assessment of the underlying rationality of the determinants of the reference-dependence effects.