People frequently underestimate the time needed to complete tasks and we examined a strategy – known as backward planning – that may counteract this optimistic bias. Backward planning involves starting a plan at the end goal and then working through required steps in reverse-chronological order, and is commonly advocated by practitioners as a tool for developing realistic plans and projections. We conducted four experiments to test effects on completion time predictions and related cognitive processes. Participants planned for a task in one of three directions (backward, forward, or unspecified) and predicted when it would be finished. As hypothesized, predicted completion times were longer (Studies 1–4) and thus less biased (Study 4) in the backward condition than in the forward and unspecified conditions. Process measures suggested that backward planning may increase attention to situational factors that delay progress (e.g., obstacles, interruptions, competing demands), elicit novel planning insights, and alter the conceptualization of time.

When people predict their future behavior, they tend to place too much weight on their current intentions, which produces an optimistic bias for behaviors associated with currently strong intentions. More realistic self-predictions require greater sensitivity to situational barriers, such as obstacles or competing demands, that may interfere with the translation of current intentions into future behavior. We consider three reasons why people may not adjust sufficiently for such barriers. First, self-predictions may focus exclusively on current intentions, ignoring potential barriers altogether. We test this possibility, in three studies, with manipulations that draw greater attention to barriers. Second, barriers may be discounted in the self-prediction process. We test this possibility by comparing prospective and retrospective ratings of the impact of barriers on the target behavior. Neither possibility was supported in these tests, or in a further test examining whether an optimally weighted statistical model could improve on the accuracy of self-predictions by placing greater weight on anticipated situational barriers. Instead, the evidence supports a third possibility: Even when they acknowledge that situational factors can affect the likelihood of carrying out an intended behavior, people do not adequately moderate the weight placed on their current intentions when predicting their future behavior.

A web-based contingent behavior analysis was developed to quantify the effect of both negative and positive information treatments and post harvest processes on demand for oysters. Results from a panel model indicate that consumers of raw and cooked oysters behave differently after news of an oyster-related human mortality. While cooked oyster consumers take precautionary measures against risk, raw oyster consumers exhibit optimistic bias and increase their consumption level. Further, by varying the source of a counter-information treatment, we find that source credibility impacts behavior. Oyster consumers, and in particular, raw oyster consumers, are most responsive to information provided by a not-for-profit, nongovernmental organization. Finally, post harvest processing of oysters has no impact on demand.

Food consumption patterns are influenced by a number of factors, including social and cultural factors. It is difficult to effect dietary change, and one possible barrier to dietary change is optimistic bias. Research indicates that individuals tend to believe that they are less likely to experience negative events, and more likely to experience positive events than their peers; this phenomenon is known as optimistic bias. It has been argued that optimistic bias may have a negative impact both on self-protective behaviour and on efforts to promote risk-reducing behaviours. The present article reviews the literature investigating optimistic bias specifically in the food domain. The review indicated that many food and nutrition issues are associated with optimistic bias. This has important implications for health-promotion activities in the food domain. The paper also describes key aspects of the methodology used to investigate optimistic bias and details the conditions under which optimistic bias has been demonstrated. The importance of identifying the causes of optimistic bias is discussed, and empirical attempts designed to reduce optimistic bias by countering the causes are reviewed. Finally, directions for future research are suggested.

Food choice is influenced by a large number of factors, including social and cultural factors. One method for trying to understand the impact of these factors is through the study of attitudes. Research is described which utilizes social psychological attitude models of attitude-behaviour relationships, in particular the Theory of Planned Behaviour. This approach has shown good prediction of behaviour, but there are a number of possible extensions to this basic model which might improve its utility. One such extension is the inclusion of measures of moral concern, which have been found to be important both for the choice of genetically-modified foods and also for foods to be eaten by others. It has been found to be difficult to effect dietary change, and there are a number of insights from social psychology which might address this difficulty. One is the phenomenon of optimistic bias, where individuals believe themselves to be at less risk from various hazards than the average person. This effect has been demonstrated for nutritional risks, and this might lead individuals to take less note of health education messages. Another concern is that individuals do not always have clear-cut attitudes, but rather can be ambivalent about food and about healthy eating. It is important, therefore, to have measures for this ambivalence, and an understanding of how it might impact on behaviour.