China is still among the 30 high-burden tuberculosis (TB) countries in the world. Few studies have described the spatial epidemiological characteristics of pulmonary TB (PTB) in Jiangsu Province. The registered incidence data of PTB patients in 95 counties of Jiangsu Province from 2011 to 2021 were collected from the Tuberculosis Management Information System. Three-dimensional spatial trends, spatial autocorrelation, and spatial–temporal scan analysis were conducted to explore the spatial clustering pattern of PTB. From 2011 to 2021, a total of 347,495 newly diagnosed PTB cases were registered. The registered incidence rate of PTB decreased from 49.78/100,000 in 2011 to 26.49/100,000 in 2021, exhibiting a steady downward trend (χ2 = 414.22, P < 0.001). The average annual registered incidence rate of PTB was higher in the central and northern regions. Moran’s I indices of the registered incidence of PTB were all >0 (P< 0.05) except in 2016, indicating a positive spatial correlation overall. Local autocorrelation analysis showed that ‘high–high’ clusters were mainly distributed in northern Jiangsu, and ‘low–low’ clusters were mainly concentrated in southern Jiangsu. The results of this study assist in identifying settings and locations of high TB risk and inform policy-making for PTB control and prevention.

Who joins extremist movements? Answering this question is beset by methodological challenges as survey techniques are infeasible and selective samples provide no counterfactual. Recruits can be assigned to contextual units, but this is vulnerable to problems of ecological inference. In this article, we elaborate a technique that combines survey and ecological approaches. The Bayesian hierarchical case–control design that we propose allows us to identify individual-level and contextual factors patterning the incidence of recruitment to extremism, while accounting for spatial autocorrelation, rare events, and contamination. We empirically validate our approach by matching a sample of Islamic State (ISIS) fighters from nine MENA countries with representative population surveys enumerated shortly before recruits joined the movement. High-status individuals in their early twenties with college education were more likely to join ISIS. There is more mixed evidence for relative deprivation. The accompanying extremeR package provides functionality for applied researchers to implement our approach.

Conversion of primary forest into oil palm plantations is common in tropical countries, affecting soil properties, ecosystem services and land-use management. However, little is known about the short-range spatial soil distribution that is important for soil scientists, ecologists, entomologists, mycologists or microbiologists. In this study, seven soil properties (pH, EC (µS/m), P (mg/kg), NO3- (mg/kg), N%, C% and C:N) were measured to quantify the spatial autocorrelation across primary forest, selectively logged forest and oil palm plantation in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo. Local variograms were calculated (range ∼5 m) to determine the short-range variation, and a decision tree as well as principal component analysis were implemented to determine if the overall (global) mean differed between land uses. As hypothesised, oil palm soils deviated the most from primary forest soils, which had more fluctuating variograms and in general, a shorter range. Oil palm plantations also showed a difference in the global mean except for electrical conductivity. Selectively logged forests also differed in their short-range spatial structure; however, the global mean and variance remained similar to primary forest soil with the exception of labile phosphorus and nitrate. These results were attributed to initial plantation development, removal of topsoil, fertiliser application and topography.

Many important and interesting hypotheses about cultural evolution are evaluated using cross-cultural correlations: if knowing one particular feature of a culture (e.g. environmental conditions such as temperature, humidity or parasite load) allows you to predict other features (e.g. language features, religious beliefs, cuisine), it is often interpreted as indicating a causal link between the two (e.g. hotter climates carry greater disease risk, which encourages belief in supernatural forces and favours the use of antimicrobial ingredients in food preparation; dry climates make the production of distinct tones more difficult). However, testing such hypotheses from cross-cultural comparisons requires us to take proximity of cultures into account: nearby cultures share many aspects of their environment and are more likely to be similar in many culturally inherited traits. This can generate indirect associations between environment and culture which could be misinterpreted as signals of a direct causal link. Evaluating examples of cross-cultural correlations from the literature, we show that significant correlations interpreted as causal relationships can often be explained as a result of similarity between neighbouring cultures. We discuss some strategies for sorting the explanatory wheat from the co-varying chaff, distinguishing incidental correlations from causal relationships.

The methods of spatial statistics have been successfully applied to the study of linguistic variation, especially for detecting the existence of spatial patterns in the geographical distribution of linguistic features. However, the use of local indicators of spatial autocorrelation for detecting spatial clusters have been limited to continuous variables, and we propose to apply the new method of Anselin and Li (2019) for categorical variables to linguistic data. We illustrate this method with the case of Japanese rendaku, or sequential voicing, whose dialectal variation is still poorly documented. Focusing on regional differences in the frequency of rendaku, we examined the occurrence of rendaku for four lexemes in 4,921 place names from all Japan. A statistical analysis of local spatial association and an unsupervised density-based cluster analysis revealed the existence of two cluster areas of high rendaku frequency centered around Wakayama and Fukushima-Yamagata prefectures. This suggests that rendaku is more frequent in those dialects, and we recommend that further studies in the dialectal variation of rendaku start by looking at those areas.

The mumps resurgence has frequently been reported around the world in recent years, especially in many counties mumps vaccines have been widely used. This study aimed to describe the spatial epidemiological characteristics of mumps in Jiangsu, and provide a scientific basis for the implementation and adjustment of strategies to prevent and control mumps. The epidemiological characteristics were described with ratio or proportion. Spatial autocorrelation, Tango's flexible spatial scan statistics, and Kulldorff's elliptic spatiotemporal scan statistics were applied to identify the spatial autocorrelation, detect hot and cold spots of mumps incidence, and aggregation areas. A total of 172 775 cases were reported from 2004 to 2020 in Jiangsu. The general trend of mumps incidence is declining with a bimodal seasonal distribution identified mainly in summer and winter, respectively. Children aged 5–10 years old are the main risk group. A migration trend of hot spots from southeast to northwest over time was found. Similar high-risk aggregations were detected in the northwestern parts through spatial-temporal analysis with the most likely cluster time frame around 2019. Local medical and health administrations should formulate and implement targeted health care policies and allocate health resources more appropriately corresponding to the epidemiological characteristics of mumps.

Binary outcome models are frequently used in the social sciences and economics. However, such models are difficult to estimate with interdependent data structures, including spatial, temporal, and spatio-temporal autocorrelation because jointly determined error terms in the reduced-form specification are generally analytically intractable. To deal with this problem, simulation-based approaches have been proposed. However, these approaches (i) are computationally intensive and impractical for sizable datasets commonly used in contemporary research, and (ii) rarely address temporal interdependence. As a way forward, we demonstrate how to reduce the computational burden significantly by (i) introducing analytically-tractable pseudo maximum likelihood estimators for latent binary choice models that exhibit interdependence across space and time and by (ii) proposing an implementation strategy that increases computational efficiency considerably. Monte Carlo experiments show that our estimators recover the parameter values as good as commonly used estimation alternatives and require only a fraction of the computational cost.

With human influences driving populations of apex predators into decline, more information is required on how factors affect species at national and global scales. However, camera-trap studies are seldom executed at a broad spatial scale. We demonstrate how uniting fine-scale studies and utilizing camera-trap data of non-target species is an effective approach for broadscale assessments through a case study of the brown hyaena Parahyaena brunnea. We collated camera-trap data from 25 protected and unprotected sites across South Africa into the largest detection/non-detection dataset collected on the brown hyaena, and investigated the influence of biological and anthropogenic factors on brown hyaena occupancy. Spatial autocorrelation had a significant effect on the data, and was corrected using a Bayesian Gibbs sampler. We show that brown hyaena occupancy is driven by specific co-occurring apex predator species and human disturbance. The relative abundance of spotted hyaenas Crocuta crocuta and people on foot had a negative effect on brown hyaena occupancy, whereas the relative abundance of leopards Panthera pardus and vehicles had a positive influence. We estimated that brown hyaenas occur across 66% of the surveyed camera-trap station sites. Occupancy varied geographically, with lower estimates in eastern and southern South Africa. Our findings suggest that brown hyaena conservation is dependent upon a multi-species approach focussed on implementing conservation policies that better facilitate coexistence between people and hyaenas. We also validate the conservation value of pooling fine-scale datasets and utilizing bycatch data to examine species trends at broad spatial scales.

While the spatial weights matrix $\boldsymbol{W}$ is at the core of spatial regression models, there is a scarcity of techniques for validating a given specification of $\boldsymbol{W}$. I approach this problem from a measurement error perspective. When $\boldsymbol{W}$ is inflated by a constant, a predictable form of endogeneity occurs that is not problematic in other regression contexts. I use this insight to construct a theoretically appealing test and control for the validity of $\boldsymbol{W}$ that is tractable in panel data, which I call the K test. I demonstrate the utility of the test using Monte Carlo simulations.

Texas German is a new world language variety that shows some evidence of koiné development but also presents with substantial variation at many levels of structure. I present a case study on the variant pronunciation of sibilants in Texas German consonant clusters. This feature is fairly frequent and found throughout the regions of German settlement in Central Texas. After a discussion of the presence of this feature in the donor dialects, I investigate the factors that correlate with variation in the modern language. From an analysis of local and global spatial autocorrelation, I argue that variation is not significantly associated with particular geographic regions and is compatible with stable and homogenous variation. This provides insight into our understanding of new dialect emergence and the mechanisms by which dialect features are leveled over multiple generations.

Large frugivores provide critical seed dispersal services for many plant species and their extirpation from forested ecosystems can cause compositional shifts in regenerating plant cohorts. Yet, we still poorly understand whether large seed-dispersers have complementary or redundant roles for forest regeneration. Here, to assess the functional complementarity of large-bodied frugivores in forest regeneration, we quantified the effects of varying abundance of hornbills, primates and the forest elephant on the density, species richness and the mean weighted seed length of animal-dispersed tree species among seedlings in five sites in a forest–savanna mosaic in D. R. Congo, while accounting for percentage forest cover and the local presence of fruiting trees. We found that the abundance of primates was positively associated with species richness of seedlings, while percentage forest cover was negatively associated (R2 = 0.19). The abundance of hornbills, the presence of elephants and percentage forest cover were positively associated with mean seed length of the regenerating cohort (R2 = 0.13). Spatially explicit analysis indicated that some additional processes have an important influence on these response indices. Primates would seem to have a preponderant role for maintaining relatively high species richness, while hornbills and elephant would seem to be predominantly responsible for the recruitment of large-seeded trees. Our results could indicate that these taxa of frugivores play complementary functional roles for forest regeneration. This suggests that the extirpation of one or more of these dispersers would likely not be functionally compensated for by the remaining taxa, hence possibly cascading into compositional shifts.

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) caused by hantaviruses is a serious public health problem in China, accounting for 90% of HFRS cases reported globally. In this study, we applied geographical information system (GIS), spatial autocorrelation analyses and a seasonal autoregressive-integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to describe and predict HFRS epidemic with the objective of monitoring and forecasting HFRS in mainland China. Chinese HFRS data from 2004 to 2016 were obtained from National Infectious Diseases Reporting System (NIDRS) database and Chinese Centre for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). GIS maps were produced to detect the spatial distribution of HFRS cases. The Moran's I was adopted in spatial global autocorrelation analysis to identify the integral spatiotemporal pattern of HFRS outbreaks, while the local Moran's Ii was performed to identify ‘hotspot’ regions of HFRS at province level. A fittest SARIMA model was developed to forecast HFRS incidence in the year 2016, which was selected by Akaike information criterion and Ljung–Box test. During 2004–2015, a total of 165 710 HFRS cases were reported with the average annual incidence at province level ranged from 0 to 13.05 per 100 000 persons. Global Moran's I analysis showed that the HFRS outbreaks presented spatially clustered distribution, with the degree of cluster gradually decreasing from 2004 to 2009, then turned out to be randomly distributed and reached lowest point in 2012. Local Moran's Ii identified that four provinces in northeast China contributed to a ‘high–high’ cluster as a traditional epidemic centre, and Shaanxi became another HFRS ‘hotspot’ region since 2011. The monthly incidence of HFRS decreased sharply from 2004 to 2009 in mainland China, then increased markedly from 2010 to 2012, and decreased again since 2013, with obvious seasonal fluctuations. The SARIMA ((0,1,3) × (1,0,1)12) model was the most fittest forecasting model for the dataset of HFRS in mainland China. The spatiotemporal distribution of HFRS in mainland China varied in recent years; together with the SARIMA forecasting model, this study provided several potential decision supportive tools for the control and risk-management plan of HFRS in China.

We need reliable data on the spatial distribution of parasites in order to achieve an inventory of global parasite biodiversity and establish robust conservation initiatives based on regional disease risk. This requires an integrated and spatially consistent effort toward the discovery of new parasite species. Using a large and representative dataset on the geographical coordinates where 4943 helminth species were first discovered, we first test whether the geographical distribution of parasite species reports is spatially congruent across helminth higher taxa; i.e. whether areas, where many trematodes are found, are also areas where many nematodes or cestodes have been discovered. Second, we test whether the global geographical distribution of new helminth species reports has changed significantly over time, i.e. across the last few decades. After accounting for spatial autocorrelation in the data, we find no strong statistical support for either of the patterns we investigated. Overall, our results indicate that helminth species discoveries are both spatially incongruent among higher taxa of helminths, and inconsistent over time. These findings suggest that the global parasite discovery effort is inefficient, spatially biased and subject to idiosyncrasies. Coordinated biodiscovery programmes, involving research teams with expertise in multiple taxonomic groups, seem the best approach to remedy these issues.

The goal of this study was to analyse the spatial pattern of tuberculosis (TB) mortality using different approaches, namely: mortality rates (MR), spatial relative risks (RR) and Bayesian rates (Global and Local) and their association with human development index (HDI), Global and its three dimensions: education, longevity and income. An ecological study was developed in Curitiba, Brazil based on data from Mortality Information System (2008–2014). Spatial scan statistics were used to compute RR and identify high-risk clusters. Bivariate Local Indicator of Spatial Associations was used to assess associations. MR ranged between 0 and 25.24/100.000 with a mean (standard deviation) of 1.07 (2.66). Corresponding values for spatial RR were 0–27.46, 1.2 (2.99) and for Bayesian rates (Global and Local) were 0.49–1.66, 0.90 (0.19) and 0–6.59, 0.98 (0.80). High-risk clusters were identified for all variables, except for HDI-income and Global Bayesian rate. Significant negative spatial relations were found between MR and income; between RR and HDI global, longevity and income; and Bayesian rates with all variables. Some areas presented different patterns: low social development/low risk and high risk/high development. These results demonstrate that social development variables should be considered, in mortality due TB.

Instruments based on realizations of the endogenous variable in other units—for instance, regional or global weighted averages—are commonly used in political science. Such spatial instruments have proved attractive: they are convenient to obtain, typically have power, and are plausibly exogenous. We argue that the assumptions underlying spatial instruments remain poorly understood and challenge whether spatial instruments can satisfy the conditions required for valid instruments. First, when cross-unit dependence exists in the endogenous predictor, other cross-unit relationships—spillovers and interdependence—likely exist as well and risk violations of the exclusion restriction. Second, spatial instruments produce simultaneity in the first-stage equation, as left-hand side outcomes are included as right-hand side predictors. Because the instrument and the endogenous variable are simultaneously determined, the exclusion restriction is, necessarily and by construction, violated. Taken together, these concerns lead us to conclude that spatial instruments are rarely, if ever, valid.

In this paper, we assess whether or not organic agriculture has a positive impact on local economies. We first identify organic agriculture hotspots (clusters of counties with positively correlated high numbers of organic operations) using spatial statistics. Then, we estimate a treatment effects model that classifies a county's membership in an organic hotspot as an endogenous treatment variable. By modeling what a hotspot county's economic indicators would have been had the county not been part of a hotspot, this model captures the effect of being in a hotspot on a county's economic indicators. We perform the same analysis for general agricultural farm hotspots to confirm that the benefits associated with organic production hotspots are, in fact, due to the organic component. Our results show that organic hotspot membership leads to a lower county-level poverty rate and a higher median household income. A similar result is not found when investigating the impact of general agriculture hotspots. On the other hand, our result is robust to alternative hotspot definitions based on type of organic operations to alternative methods of estimating average treatment effects on the treated. These results provide strong motivation for considering hotspots of organic handling operations, which refers to middlemen such as processors, wholesalers and brokers, and hotspots of organic production to be local economic development tools, and may be of interest to policymakers whose objective is to promote rural development. Our results may incentivize policymakers to specifically focus on organic development, rather than the more general development of agriculture, as a means to promote economic growth in rural areas, and may further point them in the direction of not only encouraging the presence of organic operations, but of fostering the development of clusters or hotspots of these operations.

A classical approach in precision agriculture consists in validating within field zones defined from high spatial resolution observations by agronomic information (AI). Zones validation generally involves a two-step process. First, AI are obtained on a regular grid or following a target sampling strategy inside the field. Then, a statistical test, most often an ANOVA, is used to determine if the management zones created with the high spatial resolution auxiliary data explain differences in the AI values. Unfortunately, in precision agriculture, many of the works using such an approach omit a necessary condition for the implementation of the aforementioned ANOVA test, i.e. the observations need to be independent from each other. This condition is unfortunately seldom satisfied since AI are often spatially auto-correlated. In order to highlight this problem, simulated datasets with different and known AI spatial autocorrelation were used. Results show that as AI are more and more spatially auto-correlated, ANOVA tests almost always conclude that the management zones obtained with auxiliary data are significant whatever the zoning, i.e. even a completely random one. To overcome this problem, the paper introduces two methods directly inspired from published works in the field of ecology. Two cases were considered: the first one applies when large AI dataset (n>40) is available and the other one applies for small AI dataset (n<40). Both methods are implemented on a real precision viticulture example.