Lobesia botrana is the most significant pest of grape berries in Spain. Further knowledge of its phenology would enable wine growers to decide on an optimal treatment schedule. The aim of this study is, therefore, to predict the flight peaks of L. botrana in seven wine-growing regions of Spain. The main goal is to provide a prediction model based on meteorological data records. A logistic function model, based on temperature and humidity records, together with an exhaustive statistical analysis, were used to compare the wine-growing regions in which the male flight phenology of L. botrana displays similar patterns and to sort them into groups. By doing so, a joint study of the dynamics of the moth is possible in the regions within each group. A comparison of the prediction errors before and after applying the Touzeau model confirmed that the fit of the latter model is not sufficiently accurate for the regions under study. Moth flight predictions with the logistic function model are good, but accuracy may still be improved by evaluating other non-biotic and biotic factors.
