This papers classifies toric Fano threefolds with singular locus $\{ \frac {1}{k}(1,1,1) \}$ for $k \in \mathbb {Z}_{\geq 1}$ building on the work of Batyrev (1981, Nauk SSSR Ser. Mat. 45, 704–717) and Watanabe–Watanabe (1982, Tokyo J. Math. 5, 37–48). This is achieved by completing an equivalent problem in the language of Fano polytopes. Furthermore, we identify birational relationships between entries of the classification. For a fixed value $k \geq 4$, there are exactly two such toric Fano threefolds linked by a blowup in a torus-invariant line.

Recent research has shown how experts may fail in their duty as advisors by providing advice that leads to a worse outcome than that anticipated by the user of expert opinion. However, those models have focused on the immediate effects of the failure on experts and nonexperts. Using a cascading network failure model, I show how expert failure can cascade throughout multiple sectors, even those not necessarily purchasing the expert opinion. Consequently, even relatively small failures end up having outsized aggregate effects. To provide evidence of my theory, I look at two case studies of COVID expert advice to show how one seemingly minor failure ended up contributing to the pandemic. I conclude with a discussion on institutional frameworks that can prevent such cascades.

We present an exhaustive spatial analysis using the geographic, geometric, and hypsometric characteristics of 742 North Cascades glaciers to evaluate changes in their areal extents over a half-century period. Our results indicate that, contrary to our initial expectations, glacier change throughout the study region cannot be explained readily by correlations in glacier location, size, or shape. Because of the large error attributable to annual variations in glacier area due to snowpack, no statistically reliable change could be detected for 444 glaciers in our study (a slight majority). Of the North Cascades glaciers that do exhibit detectable change, a majority decreased in area, but nevertheless, some were detectably growing. These findings suggest that the integration of weather patterns over time does not neatly translate into correlations with natural variations in the geometry of glaciers. Our statistical analyses of the changes observed indicate that geometric data from a large number of glaciers, as well as a surprisingly large amount of spatial change, are required for a credible statistical detection of glacier-length and area changes over a short (multidecadal) period of time.

Twenty-two new radiocarbon ages from Skagit valley provide a detailed chronology of alpine glaciation during the Evans Creek stade of the Fraser Glaciation (early marine oxygen isotope stage (MIS) 2) in the Cascade Range, Washington State. Sediments at sites near Concrete, Washington, record two advances of the Baker valley glacier between ca. 30.3 and 19.5 cal ka BP, with an intervening period of glacier recession about 24.9 cal ka BP. The Baker valley glacier dammed lower Skagit valley, creating glacial Lake Concrete, which discharged around the ice dam along Finney Creek, or south into the Sauk valley. Sediments along the shores of Ross Lake in upper Skagit valley accumulated in glacial Lake Skymo after ca. 28.7 cal ka BP behind a glacier flowing out of Big Beaver valley. Horizontally laminated silt and bedded sand and gravel up to 20 m thick record as much as 8000 yr of deposition in these glacially dammed lakes. The data indicate that alpine glaciers in Skagit valley were far less extensive than previously thought. Alpine glaciers remained in advanced positions for much of the Evans Creek stade, which may have ended as early as 20.8 cal ka BP.

We document characteristics of tephra, including facies and geochemistry, from 27 subsurface sites in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California, to obtain stratigraphic constraints in a complex setting. Analyzed tephra deposits correlate with: 1) an unnamed tephra from the Carlotta Formation near Ferndale, California, herein informally named the ash of Wildcat Grade (<~1.450 to >~ 0.780 Ma), 2) the Rockland ash bed (~ 0.575 Ma), 3) the Loleta ash bed (~ 0.390 Ma), and 4) middle Pleistocene volcanic ash deposits at Tulelake, California, and Pringle Falls, Bend, and Summer Lake, Oregon, herein informally named the dacitic ash of Hood (<~0.211 to >~ 0.180 Ma). All four tephra are derived from Cascades volcanic sources. The Rockland ash bed erupted from the southern Cascades and occurs in up to > 7-m-thick deposits in cores from ~ 40 m subsurface in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. Tephra facies and tephra age constraints suggest rapid tephra deposition within fluvial channel and overbank settings, likely related to flood events shortly following volcanic eruption. Such rapidly deposited tephra are important chronostratigraphic markers that suggest varying sediment accumulation rates in Quaternary deposits below the modern Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. This study provides the first steps in a subsurface Quaternary stratigraphic framework necessary for future hazard assessment.

Cascade models explain the roles of the intrepid few who initiate protest and the masses who join when the expected utility of dissent flips from negative to positive. Yet questions remain about what motivates participation between those points on the causal chain, or under any conditions of high risk. To explain these anomalies, this article employs theories of moral identity to explore the interdependence of a facet of decision making that rationalist models typically regard as fixed: individuals’ awareness of and need to express values central to their sense of self. Three mechanisms describe ways that individuals’ responses to early risers trigger moral identity-based motivations for protest. First, by conjuring normative ideals, first movers can activate bystanders’ urge to follow their example in order to earn their own self-respect. Secondly, by demonstrating the joy of agency, early risers can inspire bystanders’ desire to experience the same gratification. Thirdly, by absorbing punishments, early risers can activate onlookers’ sense of moral obligation to contribute to collective efforts. These mechanisms redouble bystanders’ sense of the inherent value of protest, apart from its instrumental utility, and intensify their acceptance of risks, independent of the actual risks anticipated. Original interviews with displaced Syrians about their participation in demonstrations illustrate these processes.

MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are involved in developmental programmes of plants, including seed germination and post-germination. Here, we provide evidence that two different miRNA pathways, miR156 and miR172, interact during the post-germination stages in Arabidopsis. Mutant seedlings expressing miR156-resistant SQUAMOSA PROMOTER-BINDING PROTEIN-LIKE13 (mSPL13), which has silent mutations in the miR156 complementary sequence, over-accumulated SPL13 mRNA and exhibited a delay in seedling development. Microarray analysis indicated that SCHNARCHZAPFEN (SNZ), an AP2-like gene targeted by miR172, was down-regulated in these mutants. Quantitative reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and miRNA gel blot analyses showed that the MIR172 genes were up-regulated in mSPL13 mutants. These results suggest that the miRNA regulation cascades (miR156⊣SPL13 → miR172⊣SNZ) play a critical role during the post-germination developmental stages in Arabidopsis.