Background: Emergency Department overcrowding remains a significant problem. Interventions have often focused on areas external to the ED, with patient flow in the ED receiving less attention. Efforts to address ED flow are complicated by daily fluctuations in patient volume and acuity. Our local protocol brings in additional physicians when internal metrics indicate patient demand can't be met by current physician resources (a ‘surge’ period). However, anecdotal evidence suggests a lack of satisfaction and efficacy. We therefore undertook a project to improve our local management of these surge periods. Aim Statement: To improve the effectiveness of an ED Physician Surge Protocol to allow for a physician scheduling strategy that is reflective of the needs of the ED. Measures & Design: This project consists of 3 phases. Phase 1 was an analysis of current surge metrics (including frequency, temporal patterns and physician response), with concurrent literature search to identify any best practices or easily addressable protocol changes, with first planned PDSA cycle. Phase 2 is a mixed methods survey of local staff to identify barriers and enablers of our current protocol, concurrent with a national survey of current practices. Phase 3 will be the implementation of a revised protocol, followed by a second mixed methods survey and analysis of metrics of interest. Evaluation/Results: Analysis of surge data (Oct 2018-Oct 2019) demonstrated a high volume of surges per month (78.7 +/- 10.9), highest at Foothills Medical Centre (94.3). Across all sites, afternoon periods had highest frequency of surges (absolute peak 1400 - 1500) with a secondary peak 2200–2300, both peaks occurring most frequently on weekends (Fri-Sun) However, physician response to surge calls was < 10% (5.8-9.1%), with no discernable temporal pattern, even accounting for the significant number of automatic surge calls cancelled by clinicians. Analysis of data, in addition to literature review and engagement with senior administration suggested no immediate protocol changes, therefore project moved to 2nd phase. This phase is currently in progress, with planned analysis using Pareto Chart methodology. Discussion/Impact: Our initial data clearly demonstrates that current procedures are inadequate to address this ongoing issue, with no readily apparent solutions. Analysis of local barriers and enablers is currently underway, in addition to a national survey, with the results expected to inform an extensive redesign of current procedures.

Introduction: Planning for the future emergency physician (EP) workforce will be a significant challenge for decision makers given the rise in emergency department (ED) visits and no concurrent increase in resident positions. EP workforce planning must incorporate physician supply, as well as current and forecasted patient demand. Nova Scotia has undertaken the process of developing a planning model to support policy decision making. We hypothesize that Nova Scotia will require increased resident positions and recruitment from other provinces to meet future patient demand. Methods: We have developed an age structured population model that tracks the number of clinical full-time equivalent (FTE) EPs by their age and shows the “variance” (i.e., supply – demand = variance) over a 30 year planning horizon. This model represents all Level 1, 2, 3, and 4 EDs in Nova Scotia. Current physician supply was calculated based on FTE staffing levels. The current patient demand was based on historical volume and acuity of patients and converted to an FTE demand estimate. Forecasted demand was predicted to increase at an average rate of 0.5% per year. We varied the number of residents trained and the number of EPs recruited from outside the province to examine the effect on the EP workforce. Our initial model will reflect the current training environment and will be referred to as the “current state”. In our 3 scenarios, we increased the number of residents and recruited physicians by 50%, individually and then together. Our outcome measure will be the variance in FTE. Results: The current state showed that the province will have a deficit of 51 FTE EPs over the next 30 years. In scenario 1, a 50% increase in both resident training streams eliminated all variance, while in scenario 2, the increase in recruitment reduced the FTE variance to 34 FTE positions unfilled. In scenario 3, the variance was 0. Conclusion: We feel that this CTAS weighted volumes perspective is important for clinical services planning but the siting, sizing, and synergizing of EDs in a region will involve other inputs. Its important to recognize that we have made the assumption that all physicians starting to work in Nova Scotia will be a 1 FTE. Future iterations will examine the effect of more realistic FTE definitions that account for administrative, teaching and research activities.