We present a quantitative ground-penetrating radar (GPR) analysis of the Lower Calderone Glacieret to highlight the recent evolution of one of the southernmost glacial systems in Europe. The Upper and Lower Calderone Glacierets are the last two perennial ice bodies in the Apennine Mountains (Italy), and their continuous monitoring is important for glaciology, hydrology and climate science. We applied a proprietary auto-picking algorithm to track reflections accurately and objectively within three pseudo-3-D GPR data sets that were acquired over the Lower Glacieret in different years. After the time-to-depth conversion, the basal reflections were projected onto the normal versors of a 3-D topographic model of the survey area, at the different GPR trace positions. We then applied an Adjusted Inverse-Distance Weighted Spatial Interpolation method to extrapolate the ice-bedrock interface within the areas not directly covered by the GPR profiles and compare it with the topographic surface to recover the glacieret volume. In this paper, we critically examine the accuracy of the reconstructed models, including possible issues related to the challenging survey areas, such as local artifacts in the interpolated interface caused by irregular GPR coverage. We further discuss the various advantages of the implemented procedure with respect to more traditional glacier monitoring techniques.

We present a new map of bed topography and ice thickness together with a corresponding ice volume estimate representative of the years ~2010 for all Scandinavian ice caps and glaciers. Starting from surface observations, we invert for ice thickness by iteratively running an innovative ice dynamics model on a distributed grid and updating bed topography until modelled and observed glacier dynamics as represented by their rate of surface elevation change (dh/dt) fields align. The ice flow model used is the instructed glacier model (Jouvet and Cordonnier, 2023, Journal of Glaciology 1–15), a generic physics-informed deep-learning emulator that models higher-order ice flow with high-computational efficiency. We calibrate the modelled thicknesses against >11 000 ice thickness observations, resulting in a final ice volume estimate of 302.7 km3 for Norway, 18.4 km3 for Sweden and 321.1 km3 for the whole of Scandinavia with an error estimate of ~$\pm 11\%$. The validation statistics computed indicate good agreement between modelled and observed thicknesses (RMSE = 55 m, Pearson's r = 0.87, bias = 0.8 m), outperforming all other ice thickness maps available for the region. The modelled bed shapes thus provide unprecedented detail in the subglacial topography, especially for ice caps where we produce the first maps that show ice-dynamically realistic flow features.

Glaciers cover 132 900 km2 around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, but few are subject to annual mass-balance measurements. Lookalike Glacier and Davies Dome on James Ross Island have been monitored since 2009, providing the third longest mass-balance record for the northern Antarctic Peninsula. These glaciers had a balanced mass budget over the period 2009/10–2014/15 but started to lose their mass thereafter. Between 2014/15 and 2020/21, mass change rates were −0.15 ± 0.13 and −0.26 ± 0.11 m w.e. a−1 for Lookalike Glacier and Davies Dome, respectively. The mean equilibrium-line altitudes over this period at Lookalike Glacier (362 ± 18 m a.s.l.) and Davies Dome (>427 ± 22 m a.s.l.) are 51 and >34 m higher compared to the previous 6-year period. The mean accumulation area ratio values determined for the period 2014/15–2020/21 are lower than the balanced-budget ratio indicating that glaciers are out of balance with the current climate. The data confirm the transition from positive to negative mass-balance periods around 2014/15, which is attributed to the change in air temperature trends. The mean summer temperature increased by 0.9°C between the periods 2009/10–2014/15 and 2015/16–2020/21 and melt-season temperatures became predominantly positive.

Observations remain sparse for peripheral glaciers and ice caps in Greenland. Here, we present the results of a multi-frequency radar survey of Lyngmarksbræen Ice Cap in West Greenland conducted in April 2017. Radar measurements show thick ice of up to ~120 m in subglacial valleys associated with the largest outlet glaciers, while relatively thin ice cover the upper plateau ice divides, suggesting future vulnerability to ice cap fragmentation. At the time of the radar survey, Lyngmarksbræen Ice Cap had a total volume of 0.82 ± 0.1 km3. Measurements show a 1.5–2 m thick end-of-winter snowpack, and that firn is largely absent, signifying a prolonged period of negative mass balance for most of the ice cap. The thermal regime of Lyngmarksbræen Ice Cap is investigated through analysis of scattering observed along radar profiles. Results show that the ice cap is largely below the pressure melting point, but that temperate ice exists both in deep basal pockets and in shallow zones that some places extend from ~15 m depth and to the ice base. The distribution of shallow temperate ice appears unrelated to variations in ice thickness; instead we find a strong correlation to the presence of nearby surface crevasses.

The uncertainty of glacier change projections is largely influenced by glacier models. In this study, we focus on temperature-index mass-balance (MB) models and their calibration. Using the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM), we examine the influence of different surface-type dependent degree-day factors, temporal climate resolutions (daily, monthly) and downscaling options (temperature lapse rates, temperature and precipitation corrections) for 88 glaciers with in-situ observations. Our findings indicate that higher spatial and temporal resolution observations enhance MB gradient representation due to an improved calibration. The addition of surface-type distinction in the model also improves MB gradients, but the lack of independent observations limits our ability to demonstrate the added value of increased model complexity. Some model choices have systematic effects, for example weaker temperature lapse rates result in smaller projected glaciers. However, we often find counter balancing effects, such as the sensitivity to different degree-day factors for snow, firn and ice, which depends on how the glacier accumulation area ratio changes in the future. Similarly, using daily versus monthly climate data can affect glaciers differently depending on the shifting balance between melt and solid precipitation thresholds. Our study highlights the importance of considering minor model design differences to predict future glacier volumes and runoff accurately.

The Northern and Southern Patagonian Icefields are rapidly losing volume, with current volume loss rates greater than 20 km3 a−1. However, details of the spatial and temporal distribution of their volume loss remain uncertain. We evaluate the rate of 21st-century glacier volume loss using the hydrological balance of four glacierised Patagonian river basins. We isolate the streamflow contribution from changes in ice volume and evaluate whether the rate of volume loss has decreased, increased, or remained constant. Out of 11 glacierised sub-basins, seven exhibit significant increases in the rate of ice volume loss, with a 2006–2019 time integrated anomaly in the rate of glacier volume loss of 135 ± 50 km3. This anomaly in the rate of glacier-volume-loss is spatially heterogeneous, varying from a 7.06 ± 1.69 m a−1 increase in ice loss to a 3.18 ± 1.48 m a−1 decrease in ice loss. Greatest increases in the rate of ice loss are found in the early spring and late summer, suggesting a prolonging of the melt season. Our results highlight increasing, and in some cases accelerating, rates of volume loss of Patagonia's lake-terminating glaciers, with a 2006–2019 anomaly in the rate of glacier volume loss contributing an additional 0.027 ± 0.01 mm a−1 of global mean sea-level rise.

A recent study (Millan and others, 2022a, Nature Geoscience 15(2), 124–129) claims that ice volume contained in all glaciers outside the ice sheets and its potential contribution to sea level is 20% less than previously estimated. However, the apparent decrease is largely due to differences in choice of domain, as the study excludes 80% of the glacier area in the Antarctic periphery that was included in previous global glacier volume estimates. The issue highlights the difficulty in separating glaciers from the ice-sheet proper, especially in Antarctica, and the need for both the glacier and ice-sheet communities to develop standards and protocols to avoid double-counting in global ice volume and mass-change assessments and projections. Process-based inversion models have replaced earlier scaling methods, but large uncertainties in global glacier volume estimation remain due to the ill-posed nature of the inversion problem and poorly constrained parameters emphasizing the need for more direct ice thickness observations.

Using historical and recent aerial photography and structure from motion (SfM) multiview stereo (MVS) techniques, we reconstruct the 1959 and 2018 ice surface topography and determine the geodetic mass balance of Bowman Glacier, a small mountain glacier on northern Ellesmere Island. This is combined with optical satellite imagery to reconstruct the evolution in extent of the glacier over six decades, and ground-penetrating radar measurements of ice thickness to estimate the remaining ice volume. Between 1959 and 2020, Bowman Glacier lost 78% of its extent (reducing from 2.75 to 0.61 km2), while average annual area loss rates have nearly tripled in the past two decades. Over the 1959–2018 period, glacier-wide ice-thickness change averaged −22.7 ± 4.7 m, corresponding to a mean specific annual mass balance of −347.0 ± 71.4 mm w.e. a−1. Projecting rates of area and volume change into the future indicates that the glacier will likely entirely disappear between 2030 and 2060. This study demonstrates the potential of SfM-MVS processing to generate elevation products from 1950/60s historical aerial photographs, and to extend observations of ice elevation and glacier volume change for the Canadian Arctic, prior to the satellite record.

The Tian Shan mountain range, known as the water towers of Central Asia, plays a key role in local water supply, yet large uncertainties remain about the amount of water that is stored in its glaciers. In this study, we assess the impact of the boundary conditions on ice thickness estimates using two inversion models: a mass conservation (MC) model and a basal shear stress (BS) model. We compare the widely used Randolph Glacier Inventory version 6 with the updated Glacier Area Mapping for Discharge from the Asian Mountains glacier inventory, as well as two digital elevation models (SRTM DEM and Copernicus DEM). The results show that the ice volume (in ~2000 CE) in the Tian Shan range is 661.0 ± 163.5 km3 for the MC model and 552.8 ± 85.3 km3 for the BS model. There are strong regional differences due to inventory, especially for glaciers in China (17–25%). However, the effect of different DEM sources on ice volume estimation is limited. By the end of the 21st century, the projected mass loss differences between inventories are higher than between adjacent emission scenarios, illustrating the vital importance of high-quality inventories. These differences should be carefully considered during water resource planning.

Regional assessments of ice elevation change provide insight into the processes controlling an ice sheet's geometric response to climate forcing. In Southwest Greenland's land terminating sector (SWLTS), it is presumed that ice surface elevation changes result solely from changing surface mass balance (SMB). Here we test this assumption by developing a multi-decadal (1985–2017) record of elevation change from digital elevation models (DEMs) and comparing it to regional climate model output and available records of ice speed. The SWLTS thinned by >12 m on average over the full 32-year period, but the change was highly variable in time and space. Thinning was amplified in the central region of the SWLTS, relative to the north and south. During 1985–2007, the north and south regions demonstrated net thickening while the central region thinned. Regional differences in elevation change are inconsistent with SMB anomalies, indicating that enhanced ice flow in the north and south contributed to thickening during this early time interval. While clear validation in the south is prevented by incomplete velocity data, historical surface speeds in the north were elevated. These findings support the interpretation that changing ice flow can influence ice surface elevation in the slow-moving SWLTS.

We present geodetic mass-balance estimates for ten glaciers (22.6 ± 1.1 km2) around Volcán Domuyo between 1962 and 2020 (and 46 glaciers covering 29 ± 1.5 km2 between 1984 and 2020), derived from airborne, ASTER and Pléiades imagery. Overall, we find a slightly negative mass balance (−0.15 ± 0.09 m w.e. a–1) for the entire 1962–2020 time span. A closer inspection of sub-periods reveals, however, an increasingly negative mass balance with time. The Domuyo glaciers shifted from a moderately positive mass balance of +0.28 ± 0.13 m w.e. a–1 between 1962 and 1984, to a strongly negative mass balance of −0.99 ± 0.19 m w.e. a–1 between 2012 and 2020. An increase in summer temperatures and a decrease in winter precipitation during the last four decades are likely drivers of the observed glacier changes. We support this finding by implementing a minimal glacier model, relying solely on monthly precipitation and air temperatures. The mass-balance evolution detected in Volcán Domuyo is consistent with other sites spread across the Central Andes, suggesting rapidly increasing glacier wastage impacts are occurring at a geographically wider scale.

The retreat rates of Triangular Glacier since 1979 and its mass changes during the period 2014/15–2019/20 indicate the sensitive response of small ice masses on the eastern side of the Antarctic Peninsula to air temperature evolution. This cirque glacier in the northern part of James Ross Island receded rapidly during the period of regional warming in the late 20th century, losing 30.8% of its surface area between 1979 and 2006 (−1.7% a−1). The retreat rate then dropped to −0.3% a−1 following the regional cooling trend, but started to accelerate again (−0.8 to −2.3% a−1) with increasing air temperature since the summer 2014/15. Since the glaciological year 2015/16, Triangular Glacier has experienced enhanced snow melt, wind scour and permanent mass loss with annual mass balance ranging from −0.08 ± 0.35 to −0.56 ± 0.25 m w.e. The largest mass loss was observed in the glaciological year 2019/20, which included the warmest summer of the observation period. The cumulative mass balance of −1.66 ± 0.83 m w.e. over the years 2014/15–2019/20 is consistent with the termination of the positive mass-balance period that occurred in the north-eastern Antarctic Peninsula from 2009/10 to 2014/15.

We calibrate the calving parameterisation implemented in the Open Global Glacier Model via two methods (velocity constraint and surface mass balance (SMB) constraint) and assess the impact of accounting for frontal ablation on the ice volume estimate of Greenland tidewater peripheral glaciers (PGs). We estimate an average regional frontal ablation flux of 7.38±3.45 Gta−1 after calibrating the model with two different satellite velocity products, and of 0.69±0.49 Gta−1 if the model is constrained using frontal ablation fluxes derived from independent modelled SMB averaged over an equilibrium reference period (1961–90). This second method makes the assumption that most PGs during that time have an equilibrium between mass gain via SMB and mass loss via frontal ablation. This assumption serves as a basis to assess the order of magnitude of dynamic mass loss of glaciers when compared to the SMB imbalance. The differences between results from both methods indicate how strong the dynamic imbalance might have been for PGs during that reference period. Including frontal ablation increases the estimated regional ice volume of PGs, from 14.47 to 14.64±0.12 mm sea level equivalent when using the SMB method and to 15.84±0.32 mm sea level equivalent when using the velocity method.

Accurate knowledge of the ice thickness distribution and glacier bed topography is essential for predicting dynamic glacier changes and the future developments of downstream hydrology, which are impacting the energy sector, tourism industry and natural hazard management. Using AIR-ETH, a new helicopter-borne ground-penetrating radar (GPR) platform, we measured the ice thickness of all large and most medium-sized glaciers in the Swiss Alps during the years 2016–20. Most of these had either never or only partially been surveyed before. With this new dataset, 251 glaciers – making up 81% of the glacierized area – are now covered by GPR surveys. For obtaining a comprehensive estimate of the overall glacier ice volume, ice thickness distribution and glacier bed topography, we combined this large amount of data with two independent modeling algorithms. This resulted in new maps of the glacier bed topography with unprecedented accuracy. The total glacier volume in the Swiss Alps was determined to be 58.7 ± 2.5 km3 in the year 2016. By projecting these results based on mass-balance data, we estimated a total ice volume of 52.9 ± 2.7 km3 for the year 2020. Data and modeling results are accessible in the form of the SwissGlacierThickness-R2020 data package.

Due to climate change, worldwide glaciers are rapidly declining. The trend will continue into the future, with consequences for sea level, water availability and tourism. Here, we assess the future evolution of all glaciers in Scandinavia and Iceland until 2100 using the coupled surface mass-balance ice-flow model GloGEMflow. The model is initialised with three distinct past climate data products (E-OBS, ERA-I, ERA-5), while future climate is prescribed by both global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs), in order to analyze their impact on glacier evolution. By 2100, we project Scandinavian glaciers to lose between 67 ± 18% and 90 ± 7% of their present-day (2018) volume under a low (RCP2.6) and a high (RCP8.5) emission scenario, respectively. Over the same period, losses for Icelandic glaciers are projected to be between 43 ± 11% (RCP2.6) and 85 ± 7% (RCP8.5). The projected evolution is only little impacted by both the choice of climate data products used in the past and the spatial resolution of the future climate projections, with differences in the ice volume remaining by 2100 of 7 and 5%, respectively. This small sensitivity is attributed to our model calibration strategy that relies on observed glacier-specific mass balances and thus compensates for differences between climate forcing products.

Knowledge of glacier volume is crucial for ice flow modelling and predicting the impacts of climate change on glaciers. Rugged terrain, harsh weather conditions and logistic costs limit field-based ice thickness observations in the Himalaya. Remote-sensing applications, together with mathematical models, provide alternative techniques for glacier ice thickness and volume estimation. The objective of the present research is to assess the application of artificial neural network (ANN) modelling coupled with remote-sensing techniques to estimate ice thickness on individual glaciers with direct field measurements. We have developed two ANN models and estimated the ice thickness of Chhota Shigri Glacier (western Himalaya) on ten transverse cross sections and two longitudinal sections. The ANN model estimates agree well with ice thickness measurements from a ground-penetrating radar, available for five transverse cross sections on Chhota Shigri Glacier. The overall root mean square errors of the two ANN models are 24 and 13 m and the mean bias errors are ±13 and ±6 m, respectively, which are significantly lower than for other available models. The estimated mean ice thickness and volume for Chhota Shigri Glacier are 109 ± 17 m and 1.69 ± 0.26 km3, respectively.

Multi-decadal mass loss estimates are available for few glaciers of Central Asia. On Abramov Glacier (Pamir-Alay, Kyrgyzstan), comprehensive long-term glaciological measurements have been carried out from 1968 to 1999 and re-initiated in 2011. A climatological interpretation of this benchmark glacier in Central Asia requires bridging the gap between historical and renewed measurements. This is achieved here by computing the geodetic mass balance from 1975 to 2015 using previously unreleased Soviet aerial imagery and Pléaides stereo-imagery. During 1975–2015, Abramov Glacier lost 2.2 km2 (8.2%) of its area. The mean annual thickness change was − 0.43 ± 0.14 m a−1 for the period 1975–2015, corresponding to a volume change of − 0.45 ± 0.15 km3. The average specific geodetic mass balance amounts to − 0.38 ± 0.12 m w.e. a−1. The 1975–2015 glacier mass loss lies within the range of glaciological and geodetic mass-balance estimates that were previously published for disparate and shorter time intervals since 1968. This study covers a much longer time period than earlier geodetic estimates and demonstrates the capacity to geodetically constrain glacier change at high spatial resolution in Central Asia using historic aerial imagery and Structure from Motion techniques. Therefore, it could serve as a benchmark for future studies of regional mass change.

Glaciers in the Tien Shan mountains contribute considerably to the fresh water used for irrigation, households and energy supply in the dry lowland areas of Kyrgyzstan and its neighbouring countries. To date, reconstructions of the current ice volume and ice thickness distribution remain scarce, and accurate data are largely lacking at the local scale. Here, we present a detailed ice thickness distribution of Ashu-Tor, Bordu, Golubin and Kara-Batkak glaciers derived from radio-echo sounding measurements and modelling. All the ice thickness measurements are used to calibrate three individual models to estimate the ice thickness in inaccessible areas. A cross-validation between modelled and measured ice thickness for a subset of the data is performed to attribute a weight to every model and to assemble a final composite ice thickness distribution for every glacier. Results reveal the thickest ice on Ashu-Tor glacier with values up to 201 ± 12 m. The ice thickness measurements and distributions are also compared with estimates composed without the use of in situ data. These estimates approach the total ice volume well, but local ice thicknesses vary substantially.

Photogrammetric reconstructions of the Aldegondabreen glacier on Svalbard from 17 archival terrestrial oblique photographs taken in 1910 and 1911 reveal a past volume of 1373.7 ± 78.2 · 106 m3; almost five times greater than its volume in 2016. Comparisons to elevation data obtained from aerial and satellite imagery indicate a relatively unchanging volume loss rate of − 10.1 ± 1.6 · 106 m3 a−1 over the entire study period, while the rate of elevation change is increasing. At this rate of volume loss, the glacier may be almost non-existent within 30 years. If the changes of Aldegondabreen are regionally representative, it suggests that there was considerable ice loss over the entire 1900s for the low elevation glaciers of western Svalbard. The 1910/11 reconstruction was made from a few of the tens of thousands of archival terrestrial photographs from the early 1900s that cover most of Svalbard. Further analysis of this material would give insight into the recent history and future prospects of the archipelago's glaciers. Photogrammetric reconstructions of this kind of material require extensive manual processing to produce good results; for more extensive use of these archival imagery, a better processing workflow would be required.

Several global datasets of glacier thickness exist, but the number of observations from western Canada are sparse and spatially biased. To supplement these limited observations, we measured ice thickness with ice penetrating radar on five glaciers in the Columbia Mountains, Canada. Our radar surveys, when combined with previous surveys for two glaciers in the Rocky Mountains, total 182 km of transects that represent 34 672 point measurements of ice thickness. Our measurements are, on average, 38% thicker than previous surface inversion model estimates of glacier thickness. Using our measurements within a cross-validation scheme, we model ice thickness with the Open Global Glacier Model (OGGM) driven with recent observations of surface mass balance and glacier elevation. We calibrated OGGM ice thickness by optimizing the ice creep parameter in the model. The optimized OGGM yields an ice volume for Columbia Basin of 122.5 ± 22.4 km3 for the year 2000, which is 23% greater than the range of previous estimates. At current rates of glacier mass loss for this region, glaciers would disappear from the basin in about 65–80 years. Disappearance of these glaciers will negatively affect the basin's surface hydrology, freshwater availability and aquatic ecosystems.