Tea is one of the most widely consumed beverages in the world. However, the association between tea and risk of pancreatic adenocarcinoma remains controversial. This study aimed to investigate the causal relationship between tea consumption and risk of pancreatic adenocarcinoma and to explore their mediating effects. The two-sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis showed an inverse causal relationship between tea intake and pancreatic adenocarcinoma (OR: 0·111 (0·02, 0·85), P < 0·04). To examine the mediating effects, we explored the potential mechanisms by which tea intake reduces the risk of pancreatic adenocarcinoma. Based on the oral bioavailability and drug-like properties in Traditional Chinese Medicine Systems Pharmacology database, we selected the main active ingredients of tea. We screened out the fifteen representative targeted genes by Pharmmapper database, and the gene ontology enrichment analysis showed that these targeted genes were related to vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) pathway. The two-step MR analysis of results showed that only VEGF-D played a mediating role, with a mediation ratio of 0·230 (0·066, 0·394). In conclusion, the findings suggest that VEGF-D mediates the effect of tea intake on the risk of pancreatic adenocarcinoma.

This paper explores the potential causal relationship between political orientation and education investment by using panel data from 21 OECD countries from 1970 to 2020 and utilizing estimators that address endogeneity (i.e. 2SLS, System GMM, and Lewbel 2SLS). In particular, using communist influence as a physical instrument for political orientation, we find a positive impact of the right political orientation on education investment, and the impact of the left orientation is negative. The positive impact from the right orientation is also stronger than the negative impact from the left. Moreover, these core results are robust to alternative measures of political orientation and education investment, alternative estimators that address endogeneity, and the moderation effect of innovation.

Using the instrumental variable approach on nationally representative, individual-level data on middle-aged pension participants in China, this study quantifies the peer effect in the context of forming pension expectations. The study confirms the existence of the peer effect in forming pension expectations in the community. The probability of having optimistic pension expectations significantly increases by 0.309 percentage points if the proportion of optimists in the community increases by 1 percentage point. Moreover, the study explores the channels through which the peer effect operates and finds that the social learning channel dominates the social norms channel. The study also provides empirical evidence that village and township leaders as well as those with old pension program experience are opinion leaders in their peer group. Lastly, we find peer effects in other pension decisions, e.g., contribution size, and the contribution size increases by the proportion of optimists in the community. The study provides policy implications on ways to improve willingness to contribute to pension programs.

Previous studies have revealed an association between dietary factors and atopic dermatitis (AD). To explore whether there was a causal relationship between diet and AD, we performed Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis. The dataset of twenty-one dietary factors was obtained from UK Biobank. The dataset for AD was obtained from the publicly available FinnGen consortium. The main research method was the inverse-variance weighting method, which was supplemented by MR‒Egger, weighted median and weighted mode. In addition, sensitivity analysis was performed to ensure the accuracy of the results. The study revealed that beef intake (OR = 0·351; 95 % CI 0·145, 0·847; P = 0·020) and white bread intake (OR = 0·141; 95 % CI 0·030, 0·656; P = 0·012) may be protective factors against AD. There were no causal relationships between AD and any other dietary intake factors. Sensitivity analysis showed that our results were reliable, and no heterogeneity or pleiotropy was found. Therefore, we believe that beef intake may be associated with a reduced risk of AD. Although white bread was significant in the IVW analysis, there was large uncertainty in the results given the wide 95 % CI. Other factors were not associated with AD in this study.

This study aimed to investigate the causal effect of dietary habits on COVID-19 susceptibility, hospitalisation and severity. We used data from a large-scale diet dataset and the COVID-19 Host Genetics Initiative to estimate causal relationships using Mendelian randomisation. The inverse variance weighted (IVW) method was used as the main analysis. For COVID-19 susceptibility, IVW estimates indicated that milk (OR: 0·82; 95 % CI (0·68, 0·98); P = 0·032), unsalted peanut (OR: 0·53; 95 % CI (0·35, 0·82); P = 0·004), beef (OR: 0·59; 95 % CI (0·41, 0·84); P = 0·004), pork (OR: 0·63; 95 % CI (0·42, 0·93); P = 0·022) and processed meat (OR: 0·76; 95 % CI (0·63, 0·92); P = 0·005) were causally associated with reduced COVID-19 susceptibility, while coffee (OR: 1·23; 95 % CI (1·04, 1·45); P = 0·017) and tea (OR: 1·17; 95 % CI (1·05, 1·31); P = 0·006) were causally associated with increased risk. For COVID-19 hospitalisation, beef (OR: 0·51; 95 % CI (0·26, 0·98); P = 0·042) showed negative correlations, while tea (OR: 1·54; 95 % CI (1·16, 2·04); P = 0·003), dried fruit (OR: 2·08; 95 % CI (1·37, 3·15); P = 0·001) and red wine (OR: 2·35; 95 % CI (1·29, 4·27); P = 0·005) showed positive correlations. For COVID-19 severity, coffee (OR: 2·16; 95 % CI (1·25, 3·76); P = 0·006), dried fruit (OR: 1·98; 95 % CI (1·16, 3·37); P = 0·012) and red wine (OR: 2·84; 95 % CI (1·21, 6·68); P = 0·017) showed an increased risk. These findings were confirmed to be robust through sensitivity analyses. Our findings established a causal relationship between dietary habits and COVID-19 susceptibility, hospitalisation and severity.

Studies of political persuasion often use an exogenous encouragement as an instrument for persuasive messaging. However, for some people, such encouragement is insufficient, while for others, it is unnecessary. These individuals are excluded from methods that only estimate a treatment effect among compliers. Using the marginal treatment effect framework, we extend research finding that exposure to West German television increases support for communism. We find that, because of self-selection, for those who watch West German TV regardless of signal quality, i.e. always-takers, cutting off West German television would have increased support for communism. Our extrapolation shows that media choices reinforce, rather than mollify, political preferences.

Higher milk intake has been associated with a lower stroke risk, but not with risk of CHD. Residual confounding or reverse causation cannot be excluded. Therefore, we estimated the causal association of milk consumption with stroke and CHD risk through instrumental variable (IV) and gene-outcome analyses. IV analysis included 29 328 participants (4611 stroke; 9828 CHD) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-CVD (eight European countries) and European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Netherlands (EPIC-NL) case-cohort studies. rs4988235, a lactase persistence (LP) SNP which enables digestion of lactose in adulthood was used as genetic instrument. Intake of milk was first regressed on rs4988235 in a linear regression model. Next, associations of genetically predicted milk consumption with stroke and CHD were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression. Gene-outcome analysis included 777 024 participants (50 804 cases) from MEGASTROKE (including EPIC-CVD), UK Biobank and EPIC-NL for stroke, and 483 966 participants (61 612 cases) from CARDIoGRAM, UK Biobank, EPIC-CVD and EPIC-NL for CHD. In IV analyses, each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk in EPIC-CVD (β = 13·7 g/d; 95 % CI 8·4, 19·1) and EPIC-NL (36·8 g/d; 95 % CI 20·0, 53·5). Genetically predicted milk intake was not associated with stroke (HR per 25 g/d 1·05; 95 % CI 0·94, 1·16) or CHD (1·02; 95 % CI 0·96, 1·08). In gene-outcome analyses, there was no association of rs4988235 with risk of stroke (OR 1·02; 95 % CI 0·99, 1·05) or CHD (OR 0·99; 95 % CI 0·95, 1·03). Current Mendelian randomisation analysis does not provide evidence for a causal inverse relationship between milk consumption and stroke or CHD risk.

Fighting corruption is often seen as a crucial step toward building better institutions, but how it affects political selection remains less well understood. This article argues that in systems where corruption functions as an informal incentive for government to attract talent, anticorruption initiatives that curb rent-seeking opportunities may unintentionally weaken both the quality and the representativeness of the bureaucracy. The authors test this argument in China using an original nationwide survey of government officials and an identification strategy that exploits exogenous variations in enforcement levels created by the recent anticorruption campaign. The study finds that intensified enforcement has generated two potentially negative selection effects: a deterrence effect that lowers the average ability of newly recruited bureaucrats, and a compositional effect that discourages the entry of lower-class individuals in favor of those who are affluent and well connected. These findings highlight important hidden human capital costs of corruption elimination in developing countries.

Do peacekeepers protect civilians in civil conflict? Securing civilian safety is a key objective of contemporary peacekeeping missions, yet whether these efforts actually make a difference on the ground is widely debated in large part because of intractable endogeneity concerns and selection bias. To overcome these issues, we use an instrumental variables design, leveraging exogenous variation in the rotation of African members of the United Nations Security Council and looking at its effects on African civil wars. We show that states that wield more power send more peacekeepers to their preferred locations, and that these peacekeepers in turn help to protect civilians. We thus demonstrate the robustness of many existing results to a plausible identification strategy and present a method that can also be applied to other diverse settings in international relations.

Blood eosinophil count is associated with a variety of common complex outcomes in epidemiological observation. The aim of this study was to explore the causal association between determined blood eosinophil count and 20 common complex outcomes (10 metabolic, 6 cardiac, and 4 pulmonary). Through Mendelian randomization, we investigated genetic evidence for the genetically determined eosinophil in association with each outcomes using individual-level LifeLines cohort data (n = 13,301), where a weighted eosinophil genetic risk score comprising five eosinophil associated variants was created. We further examined the associations of the genetically determined eosinophil with those outcomes using summary statistics obtained from genome-wide association study consortia (6 consortia and 14 outcomes). Blood eosinophil count, by a 1-SD genetically increased, was not statistically associated with common complex outcomes in the LifeLines. Using the summary statistics, we showed that a higher genetically determined eosinophil count had a significant association with lower odds of obesity (odds ratio (OR) 0.81, 95% confidence interval (CI) [0.74, 0.89]) but not with the other traits and diseases. To conclude, an elevated eosinophil count is unlikely to be causally associated to higher risk of metabolic, cardiac, and pulmonary outcomes. Further studies with a stronger genetic risk score for eosinophil count may support these results.