Since the 1980s, the existence of one or more extinction events in the late Ediacaran has been the subject of debate. Discussion surrounding these events has intensified in the last decade, in concert with efforts to understand drivers of global change over the Ediacaran–Cambrian transition and the appearance of the more modern-looking Phanerozoic biosphere. In this paper we review the history of thought and work surrounding late Ediacaran extinctions, with a particular focus on the last 5 years of paleontological, geochemical, and geochronological research. We consider the extent to which key questions have been answered, and pose new questions which will help to characterize drivers of environmental and biotic change. A key challenge for future work will be the calculation of extinction intensities that account for limited sampling, the duration of Ediacaran ‘assemblage’ zones, and the preponderance of taxa restricted to a single ‘assemblage’; without these data, the extent to which Ediacaran bioevents represent genuine mass extinctions comparable to the ‘Big 5’ extinctions of the Phanerozoic remains to be rigorously tested. Lastly, we propose a revised model for drivers of late Ediacaran extinction pulses that builds off recent data and growing consensus within the field. This model is speculative, but does frame testable hypotheses that can be targeted in the next decade of work.

We consider a stochastic evolutionary model for a phenotype developing amongst n related species with unknown phylogeny. The unknown tree is modelled by a Yule process conditioned on n contemporary nodes. The trait value is assumed to evolve along lineages as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. As a result, the trait values of the n species form a sample with dependent observations. We establish three limit theorems for the sample mean corresponding to three domains for the adaptation rate. In the case of fast adaptation, we show that for large n the normalized sample mean is approximately normally distributed. Using these limit theorems, we develop novel confidence interval formulae for the optimal trait value.

Episodes of species mass extinction dramatically affected the evolution of life on Earth, but their causes remain a source of debate. Even more controversy surrounds the hypothesis of periodicity in the fossil record, with conflicting views still being published in the scientific literature, often even based on the same state-of-the-art datasets. From an empirical point of view, limitations of the currently available data on extinctions and possible causes remain an important issue. From a theoretical point of view, it is likely that a focus on single extinction causes and strong periodic forcings has strongly contributed to this controversy. Here I show that if there is a periodic extinction signal at all, it is much more likely to result from a combination of a comparatively weak periodic cause and various random factors. Tests of this unified model of mass extinctions on the available data show that the model is formally better than a model with random extinction causes only. However, the contribution of the periodic component is small compared to factors such as impacts or volcanic eruptions.

The rise of archosaurs during the Triassic and Early Jurassic has been treated as a classic example of an evolutionary radiation in the fossil record. This paper reviews published studies and provides new data on archosaur lineage origination, diversity and lineage evolution, morphological disparity, rates of morphological character change, and faunal abundance during the Triassic–Early Jurassic. The fundamental archosaur lineages originated early in the Triassic, in concert with the highest rates of character change. Disparity and diversity peaked later, during the Norian, but the most significant increase in disparity occurred before maximum diversity. Archosaurs were rare components of Early–Middle Triassic faunas, but were more abundant in the Late Triassic and pre-eminent globally by the Early Jurassic. The archosaur radiation was a drawn-out event and major components such as diversity and abundance were discordant from each other. Crurotarsans (crocodile-line archosaurs) were more disparate, diverse, and abundant than avemetatarsalians (bird-line archosaurs, including dinosaurs) during the Late Triassic, but these roles were reversed in the Early Jurassic. There is no strong evidence that dinosaurs outcompeted or gradually eclipsed crurotarsans during the Late Triassic. Instead, crurotarsan diversity decreased precipitously by the end-Triassic extinction, which helped usher in the age of dinosaurian dominance.

The beginning of dinosaur evolution is currently known based on a handful of highly informative Gondwanan outcrops of Ischigualastian age (late Carnian–early Norian). The richest Triassic dinosaur records of the southern continents are those of South America and South Africa, with taxonomically diverse faunas, whereas faunas from India and central Africa are more poorly known. Here, the known diversity of Gondwanan Triassic dinosaurs is increased with new specimens from central India, which allow a more comprehensive characterisation of these dinosaur assemblages. Five dinosauriform specimens are reported from the probable late Norian–earliest Rhaetian Upper Maleri Formation, including two new sauropodomorph species, the non-plateosaurian Nambalia roychowdhurii and the plateosaurian Jaklapallisaurus asymmetrica, a guaibasaurid and two basal dinosauriforms. The Lower Dharmaram Formation, probably latest Norian–Rhaetian in age, includes basal sauropodomorph and neotheropod remains, providing the second record of a Triassic Gondwanan neotheropod. The currently available evidence suggests that the oldest known Gondwanan dinosaur assemblages (Ischigualastian) were not homogeneous, but more diverse in South America than in India. In addition, the Upper Maleri and Lower Dharmaram dinosaur assemblages resemble purported coeval South American and European beds in the presence of basal sauropodomorphs. Accordingly, the current available evidence of the Triassic beds of the Pranhita–Godavari Basin suggests that dinosaurs increased in diversity and abundance during the late Norian to Rhaetian in this region of Gondwana.

Despite tremendous interest in the topic and decades of research, the origins of the major losses of biodiversity in the history of life on Earth remain elusive. A variety of possible causes for these mass-extinction events have been investigated, including impacts of asteroids or comets, large-scale volcanic eruptions, effects from changes in the distribution of continents caused by plate tectonics, and biological factors, to name but a few. Many of these suggested drivers involve or indeed require changes of Earth's climate, which then affect the biosphere of our planet, causing a global reduction in the diversity of biological species. It can be argued, therefore, that a detailed understanding of these climatic variations and their effects on ecosystems are prerequisites for a solution to the enigma of biological extinctions. Apart from investigations of the paleoclimate data of the time periods of mass extinctions, climate-modelling experiments should be able to shed some light on these dramatic events. Somewhat surprisingly, however, only a few comprehensive modelling studies of the climate changes associated with extinction events have been undertaken. These studies will be reviewed in this paper. Furthermore, the role of modelling in extinction research in general and suggestions for future research are discussed.

Although the mathematical principles underpinning population-level evolution are now well studied, the origin and evolution of morphological novelties has received far less attention. Here, a broad but general theory for how this sort of change takes place is outlined, relying on functional continuity, least-constrained components of morphology, redundancy and preadaptation. At least four distinct sorts of redundancy are identified: (i) redundancy arising through duplication (amplification); (ii) redundancy arising through regionalisation (parcellation); (iii) redundancy arising through functional convergence; and (iv) redundancy arising from shared function (functional degeneracy). Although organisms are here recognised to be functionally constrained (“burdened”, in Riedl's terminology), these constraints can be overcome through the combination of the four principles given above. Contrary to its common treatment, functional constraint is neither an ever-increasing restriction on the scope of evolution, nor does it require drastic events to overcome or “break” it. Rather, it is an evolutionary quantity, subject to selection at some level. The rules that govern morphological evolution are the primary controls on what is allowed to happen in the evolution of the overall genotype-phenotype system, suggesting strong controls on the sorts of developmental changes that might be associated with macroevolution. This model, then, sees organism functionality as the primary control on evolvability, with exact genetic make-up being of secondary importance. It should prove possible to recast traditional notions of body-plan evolution into the formulations of complex system analysis, which in the future may prove a unifying discipline for fields as disparate as palaeontology and gene regulatory networks. In particular, understanding how morphology can evolve may provide the critical link between the ecological and morphological networks that are currently the intense focus of evolutionary investigations.

One way to build larger, more comprehensive phylogenies is to combine the vast amount of phylogenetic information already available. We review the two main strategies for accomplishing this (combining raw data versus combining trees), but employ a relatively new variant of the latter: supertree construction. The utility of one supertree technique, matrix representation using parsimony analysis (MRP), is demonstrated by deriving a complete phylogeny for all 271 extant species of the Carnivora from 177 literature sources. Beyond providing a ‘consensus’ estimate of carnivore phylogeny, the tree also indicates taxa for which the relationships remain controversial (e.g. the red panda; within canids, felids, and hyaenids) or have not been studied in any great detail (e.g. herpestids, viverrids, and intrageneric relationships in the procyonids). Times of divergence throughout the tree were also estimated from 74 literature sources based on both fossil and molecular data. We use the phylogeny to show that some lineages within the Mustelinae and Canidae contain significantly more species than expected for their age, illustrating the tree's utility for studies of macroevolution. It will also provide a useful foundation for comparative and conservational studies involving the carnivores.