Cerberiopsis candelabra Vieill. is a long-lived, monocarpic (= semelparous) and mass-flowering rain-forest tree, endemic to New Caledonia. Population size structures suggest establishment has been episodic, followed by a recruitment gap that might signal population decline. Here, we use age structures based on tree rings to better assess population dynamics and persistence, and investigate influences of tree size, age and growth rate on flowering. Age structures of populations surveyed in 2007–2008 were unimodal, with establishment over c. 15–81 y, followed by a recruitment gap of c. 23–79 y. Seedling mortality was generally high. High densities of flowering trees or large-scale exogenous disturbances may be necessary for in-situ regeneration. There was no evidence of a simple flowering threshold: flowering in 2017 occurred across a wide range of tree size, age and growth rate. Instead, evidence suggested that size and age at flowering may vary among plants depending on their growth trajectory. Environmental triggers of flowering were not identified by dating tree establishment, but the last three mass-flowering events occurred in years of tropical cyclones. Regeneration and persistence might be facilitated if large-scale disturbances trigger flowering, improving reproductive efficiency by synchronising flowering and linking reproduction with environmental conditions that enhance seedling recruitment.

Dipterocarpaceae, a dominant family of trees in South-East Asian tropical forests, are remarkable in that they exhibit supra-annual mass-flowering events. The flowering patterns are related to the El Niño Southern Oscillation, but the mechanism that precipitates mass-flowering is still debated. Here, we test if a cumulative-trigger model that tracks resource availability, specifically light, may better explain dipterocarp phenology than a direct-environmental-trigger mechanism. Using 11 flowering time series with an average length of 29 y and variety of candidate predictor variables (precipitation, cloud cover, minimum temperature and El Niño indices) we could not find a plausible direct-environmental-trigger (median AUCs across regions from 0.53 to 0.57 indicating near random predictions). The cumulative-trigger model based on El Niño indices showed better predictive results (AUC 0.67), which could further be improved by resetting the resource at known flowering events (AUC 0.76). Additional support for a cumulative-trigger model comes from the observation that regional differences in the time of year of peak flowering correspond to where El Niño effects are strongest. We conclude that cumulative resource tracking is an evolutionary plausible trigger mechanism that has other primary evolutionary advantages, such as predator satiation.

South-East Asian tropical rain forests experience sporadic, but profuse, seed production after general flowering, leading to the synchronous emergence of various seedlings and subsequent seedling dynamics, which play a crucial role in determining species distribution and coexistence. We examined the relative importance of both biotic (initial height, conspecific seedling density) and abiotic (canopy openness, per cent sand, soil water content) drivers using survival data for 1842 seedlings of 12 dipterocarp species for 1.5 y following mast fruiting in an old-growth Bornean tropical rain forest. More than 30% of all dipterocarp seedlings survived 1.5 y after mast fruiting. When all species were analysed together, we found that initial seedling height, canopy openness and conspecific seedling density affected dipterocarp seedling survival. Negative density dependence indicated that predators were not satiated, but dipterocarp seedlings rather suffered from host-specific natural enemies or intraspecific competition. Species-level analyses of seven dipterocarp species showed large variation in response to biotic and abiotic factors. These results suggest that interspecific differences in the relative importance of biotic and abiotic effects on seedling survival might contribute to species coexistence.

The Dipterocarpaceae in South-East Asia are known for their strict mast fruiting. During fruiting, pre-dispersal seed predation by insects contributes to mortality of dipterocarp seeds. We documented the community structure of insect seed predators on 11 Shorea species in Peninsular Malaysia. Fruits were sampled sequentially throughout seed development, and 2144 and 1655 individuals of seed predator weevils and moths were collected in two mast-fruiting events. Four weevils: Nanophyes shoreae, nanophyid sp. 1, Alcidodes dipterocarpi and Alcidodes humeralis, and one moth Andrioplecta shoreae were abundant in seeds of the Shorea species. The proportion of N. shoreae to the total predators became larger in the latter fruiting event than the former while that of Alcidodes spp. became smaller. The predator species composition changed during seed development; nanophyid spp. emerged from immature fruits while Alcidodes spp. emerged from mature fruits. Andrioplecta shoreae emerged from both immature and mature fruits. The level of host specificity measured by Kullback–Leibler distance was low for most predator species in both events. Predator species composition of many Shorea was similar to each other due to the dominance of N. shoreae though it might gradually differ with the phylogenetic distance between hosts. In conclusion, predator species composition of Shorea varied during seed development within a host rather than among hosts. Intermittent synchronized fruiting by congeneric Shorea trees would be advantageous to avoid pre-dispersal insect seed predators, and contribute to their reproduction.

Spatial and temporal variation in seedling dynamics was assessed using records of community-wide seedling demography collected with identical monitoring methods at four tropical lowland forests in Panama, Malaysia, Ecuador and French Guiana for periods of between 3 and 10 y. At each site, the fates of between 8617 and 391 777 seedlings were followed through annual censuses of the 370–1008 1-m2 seedling plots. Within-site spatial and inter-annual variation in density, recruitment, growth and mortality was compared with among-site variability using Bayesian hierarchical modelling to determine the generality of each site's patterns and potential for meaningful comparisons among sites. The Malaysian forest, which experiences community-wide masting, was the most variable in both seedling density and recruitment. However, density varied year-to-year at all sites (CVamong years at site = 8–43%), driven largely by high variability in recruitment rates (CV = 40–117%). At all sites, recruitment was more variable than mortality (CV = 5–64%) or growth (CV = 12–51%). Increases in mortality rates lagged 1 y behind large recruitment events. Within-site spatial variation and inter-annual differences were greater than differences among site averages in all rates, emphasizing the value of long-term comparative studies when generalizing how spatial and temporal variation drive patterns of recruitment in tropical forests.

The dynamics of early life-history stages are important for understanding regional diversity patterns in tropical trees. In this study, patterns of seed removal, seedling survival and ectomycorrhizal (ECM) colonization in monodominant and mixed tropical rain forests in Guyana were investigated during a masting event of an ECM monodominant tree, Dicymbe corymbosa. Two seed densities (1 m−2 and 6 m−2) were tested in two forest types (monodominant versus mixed) with 10 plots per treatment (40 plots total). Germination success, seed and seedling survival after 1 y were measured for the monodominant tree, and four non-dominant canopy tree species found in both forest types (Eschweilera sagotiana, Licania laxiflora, Chrysophyllum sanguinolentum and Carapa guianensis). A significant effect of forest type was detected for seed removal and seedling survival. In the mixed forest, seed removal was higher for all species, with 27% average removal compared with 7% average seed removal in the monodominant forest. Germination success was significantly lower for all but one species in the mixed forest, with average germination of 41% compared with 78% germination in the monodominant forest. Seed and seedling survival of the monodominant tree was greatest within the monodominant forest with 93% of seeds germinating and 85% of seedlings surviving after 1 y compared with 65% germination and 15% seedling survival in the mixed forest. Per cent ectomycorrhizal colonization of Dicymbe corymbosa was near 100% in the monodominant forest, but significantly lower (14%) in the mixed forest. These results suggest that seedling survival patterns, rather than seed survival, are more important for recruitment success in this system and that ectomycorrhizal inoculum may limit establishment of Dicymbe corymbosa in the mixed forest.

Cerberiopsis candelabra is a long-lived monocarpic rain-forest tree endemic to New Caledonia that shows mass flowering across a substantial proportion of a population, and across a substantial number of populations. We investigated the relationship between tree size and flowering (and subsequent dying) across 18 populations from the flowering event of 2003 in order to understand the role of possible size thresholds for flowering in the life history and regeneration ecology of this monocarpic species. There was a strong positive correlation between trunk diameter and the incidence of flowering when population data were combined. However, the relationship between size and flowering was complex in that flowering occurred across a wide range of tree sizes, with almost complete overlap in size between flowering (5–79 cm dbh) and non-flowering trees (5–64 cm dbh), and with large trees in both the flowering and non-flowering state in the same population. In about half the populations studied there was no significant difference in mean trunk diameter of flowering and non-flowering trees. Nonetheless, we suggest that tree size may play a fundamental role in the life history and regeneration ecology of this species. The seedlings appear to be relatively shade-intolerant and dependent on large canopy gaps for recruitment. A significant effect of mass flowering and subsequent death of multiple large trees is the potential to form large canopy gaps and enhance seedling survival, as the gap is temporally linked with seed germination. However, it is unclear why there is such a large size range of flowering trees, i.e. whether this is just a consequence of the proximate cue, or whether the optimal size for flowering does indeed vary among individuals.

Some tree species exhibit large year-to-year variation in seed production, a phenomenon known as masting (Kelly 1994, Kelly & Sork 2002). Even in tropical rain forests, in which the climate is suitable for plant growth all year round with little seasonal variation (Whitmore 1998), there are many reports of masting (Appanah 1993, Hart 1995, Newbery et al. 1998, Newstrom et al. 1994, Wheelwright 1986). In particular, Dipterocarpaceae, the dominant family in lowland mixed dipterocarp forests in South-East Asia, undergo mast fruiting following mass-flowering with strong interspecific synchronization in aseasonal western Malesia (Appanah 1985, 1993; Ashton 1989, Ashton et al. 1988, Curran et al. 1999, Janzen 1974, Medway 1972, Sakai et al. 1999, Whitmore 1998, Wood 1956). In mixed-dipterocarp forests, dipterocarp species contribute more than 70% of the canopy biomass (Bruenig 1996, Curran & Leighton 2000). Masting of dipterocarp species is therefore likely to have a major impact on animal populations, and also on the nutrient cycle in such forest ecosystems by causing fluctuations in the availability of resources (Sakai 2002).

We investigated the spatial distribution of fruiting in Dryobalanops aromatica (Dipterocarpaceae), a mast-seeding emergent tree that is found in the tropical rain forests of Borneo. Of 393 adults (diameter at breast height (dbh) > 30 cm) in a 52-ha area, 143 (36.4%) individuals fruited. A second-order spatial analysis, based on Ripley's K-function, revealed that fruiting trees were significantly (P < 0.05) aggregated with respect to the total population over distances of 15–115 m. Thus, the spatial distribution of fruiting trees was more aggregated than expected from the adult tree distribution, which itself was aggregated within the study plot. Logistic regression analysis showed that fruiting trees had a significantly greater dbh and were surrounded by more conspecific adults per ha than non-fruiting individuals. Moreover, fruiting trees were found at higher elevations, on steeper slopes, and on sandy rather than clayey soils. In contrast, annual diameter growth, adult density over areas < 1 ha, and slope convexity did not significantly affect fruiting probability. The ratio of seedling (20 cm ≤ h < 60 cm) and sapling (60 cm ≤ h < 300 cm) density to adult density was higher in sites at higher elevations, on steeper slopes, and on sandy soils than that for lower elevations, flat slopes and clayey soils. This suggests that the aggregation of fruiting trees occurred not only at the time of the study, but that it had occurred repeatedly in the past, at the high-elevation, steep-sloped, sandy sites. Thus, site conditions probably affect the dynamics and spatial structure of local populations through differences in fruiting frequency among trees experiencing different site conditions.

In southern Norway, population fluctuations of the herbivorous bank vole Clethrionomys glareolus and the granivorous wood mouse Apodemus sylvaticus were analysed in relation to mast seeding of bilberry Vaccinium myrtillus, sessile oak Quercus petraea and Norway spruce Picea abies. Bilberries ripen in August, acorns are dispersed in September, whereas spruce seeds are usually dispersed during winter or spring. The bilberry index of both the current and previous year contributed significantly to explain the population growth indices of bank vole. The spruce seed index significantly influenced only the bank vole, whereas the acorn index significantly influenced only the wood mouse, apparently through increased winter survival. Because of the lack of significant responses to bilberry masting by granivorous wood mice, we conclude that the most likely explanation for the observed peak populations of bank voles in post-mast years of bilberry is that high seed crops have a positive influence on the chemical composition of bilberry plants, which are important as food for bank voles during winter.

The role of white-tailed rats (Uromys caudimaculatus) as dispersers of seeds of the Australian tropical rain forest tree Beilschmiedia bancroftii, (Lauraceae) was investigated by following the fates of seeds and seedlings over 2 y. Fruits of this tree are too large to be consumed by any avian frugivore except the southern cassowary (Casuarius casuarius), and the only other native mammal capable of dispersing the seeds is the musky rat kangaroo (Hypsiprimnodon moschatus). However, neither of these species has been documented to disperse the seeds of this tree. During a mast year, white-tailed rats cached seeds an average of 13 m from parent trees in a variety of microsites. Although none of the 61 cached seeds followed in this study survived to germination, comparison of seed, cache and seedling distributions suggested that most seedlings arose from rat-cached seeds. White-tailed rats cached seeds in both mast and non-mast years, but the time seeds remained on the forest floor and in caches was significantly shorter in non-mast years, suggesting that synchronous seed production increases the probability that some caches survive to germination. Because white-tailed rats are the most common and widespread native mammal capable of dispersing large-seeds, this study suggests that they may play an important role in the seed and seedling dynamics of large-seeded tree species in Australian tropical rain forests.

Fruiting phenology, habitat types and proximity to conspecific fruiting adults may influence the degree of escape from pre- and post-dispersal seed predators. Successful predator escape by means of satiation is considered to be especially important for selection of masting and monocarpic reproduction in trees, such as exhibited by Tachigali versicolor, a tropical canopy tree. How pre- and post-dispersal predation rates varied with dispersal timing and among trees in T. versicolor was examined in young and old forests on Barro Colorado Island in Panama during a 4-mo period. Seeds were collected from above-ground traps to assess predispersal predation by bruchid beetles, and from quadrats on the ground to record predation and removal by terrestrial mammals. Proportion of seeds aborted varied greatly among trees (range 6–30 %, mean 16 %), and was especially high for trees on the edge of the island with fruiting conspecifics nearby during the early part of fruiting season. The proportion of seeds killed by bruchid beetles varied less among trees (14–25 %, mean 20 %), and remained constant throughout the fruiting season. Seeds on the ground were attacked mostly by rodents, and possibly by deer (26 % of all seeds and 43 % of intact dispersed seeds). The post-dispersal predation level was higher in the young forest than in the old forest (61 and 26 % of intact dispersed seeds, respectively), and was unaffected by the proximity of fruiting conspecifics. Temporal satiation of seed predators was evident only for post-dispersal mammalian predators in the old forest.