This research explores the preference for playing order in games in which each ofseveral players draws a random event (e.g., a ball from an urn), with andwithout replacement after each draw. Three studies show that people tend toprefer to draw early regardless of whether the game is with or withoutreplacement, although the expected probability of winning is the sameirrespective of the draw order. The reasons for preferring earlier draws differdepending on the game type. For games without replacement, the biased preferencefor earlier draws is related to multiple motivational factors such as aversionto uncertainty, ambiguity, and uncontrollability. Game valence also affects draworder preference through the misestimation of winning probabilities: people tendto prefer earlier draws in a gain-dominant game (i.e., a higher probability ofwinning) but prefer later draws in a loss-dominant game (i.e., a higherprobability of losing). For games with replacement, preference for earlier drawsis mainly explained by uncertainty aversion, with little bias in probabilityestimations.
