The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had an uneven development in different countries. In Argentina, the pandemic began in March 2020 and, during the first 3 months, the vast majority of cases were concentrated in a densely populated region that includes the city of Buenos Aires (country capital) and the Greater Buenos Aires (GBA) area that surrounds it. This work focuses on the spread of COVID-19 between June and November 2020 in GBA. Within this period of time there was no vaccine, basically only the early wild strain of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was present, and the official restriction and distancing measures in this region remained more or less constant. Under these particular conditions, the incidences show a sharp rise from June 2020 and begin to decrease towards the end of August until the end of November 2020. In this work we study, through mathematical modelling and available epidemiological information, the spread of COVID-19 in this region and period of time. We show that a coherent explanation of the evolution of incidences can be obtained assuming that only a minority fraction of the population got involved in the spread process, so that the incidences decreased as this group of people was becoming immune. The observed evolution of the incidences could then be a consequence at the population level of lasting immunity conferred by SARS-CoV-2.

Identifying the transmission sources and reservoirs of Streptococcus pneumoniae (SP) is a long-standing question for pneumococcal epidemiology, transmission dynamics, and vaccine policy. Here we use serotype to identify SP transmission and examine acquisitions (in the same household, local community, and county, or of unidentified origin) in a longitudinal cohort of children and adults from the Navajo Nation and the White Mountain Apache American Indian Tribes. We found that adults acquire SP relatively more in the household than other age groups, and children 2–8 years old typically acquire in their own or surrounding communities. Age-specific transmission probability matrices show that transmissions within household were mostly seen from older to younger siblings. Outside the household, children most often transmit to other children in the same age group, showing age-assortative mixing behavior. We find toddlers and older children to be most involved in SP transmission and acquisition, indicating their role as key drivers of SP epidemiology. Although infants have high carriage prevalence, they do not play a central role in transmission of SP compared with toddlers and older children. Our results are relevant to inform alternative pneumococcal conjugate vaccine dosing strategies and analytic efforts to inform optimization of vaccine programs, as well as assessing the transmission dynamics of pathogens transmitted by close contact in general.

Understanding patterns of influenza spread and persistence is crucial for pandemic preparedness. The H1N1pdm09 virus caused the first influenza pandemic of the 21st century which resulted in at least 18500 deaths. Based on laboratory-confirmed primary-care case reports we investigated the role of weather conditions and socio-demographic variables in its initial spread and subsequent presence in France. Our findings suggest that low relative humidity and high population density were determinants in shaping the early spread of the virus at the national level. Those conditions also favoured the persistence of viral presence throughout the first 33 weeks of the pandemic. Additionally this persistence was significantly favoured by low insolation. These results confirm the increasingly recognized role of humidity in influenza dynamics and underlie the concomitant effect of insolation. Therefore climatic factors should be taken into account when designing influenza control and prevention measures.

This study characterized Neisseria meningitidis serogroup C strains in China in order to establish their genetic relatedness and describe the use of multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat (VNTR) analysis (MLVA) to provide useful epidemiological information. A total of 215 N. meningitidis serogroup C strains, obtained from 2003 to 2012 in China, were characterized by MLVA with different published schemes as well as multilocus sequence typing. (i) Based on the MLVA scheme with a combination of five highly variable loci, 203 genotypes were identified; this level of discrimination supports its use for resolving closely related isolates. (ii) Based on a combination of ten low variable loci, clear phylogenetic relationships were established within sequence type complexes. In addition, there was evidence of microevolution of VNTR loci over the decade as strain lineages spread from Anhui to other provinces, the more distant the provinces from Anhui, the higher the genetic variation.

The aim of this study was to monitor the spatio-temporal spread of influenza incidence in Spain during the 2009 pandemic and the following two influenza seasons 2010–2011 and 2011–2012 using a Bayesian Poisson mixed regression model; and implement this model of geographical analysis in the Spanish Influenza Surveillance System to obtain maps of influenza incidence for every week. In the pandemic wave the maps showed influenza activity spreading from west to east. The 2010–2011 influenza epidemic wave plotted a north-west/south-east pattern of spread. During the 2011–2012 season the spread of influenza was geographically heterogeneous. The most important source of variability in the model is the temporal term. The model of spatio-temporal spread of influenza incidence is a supplementary tool of influenza surveillance in Spain.

Infection of wild animals by bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is raising concern worldwide. This article reviews the current epidemiological situation, risk of emergence and control options at the wildlife–livestock–human interface in sub-Saharan Africa. In livestock, bTB has been confirmed in the majority of countries from all parts of the continent. Wildlife infection is confirmed in seven countries from southern and eastern Africa, apparently spreading in the southern Africa region. Mycobacterium bovis has been isolated from 17 wild mammal species, although only four are suspected to play a role as maintenance host. Zoonotic risks are a concern, but no direct spillover from wildlife to humans has been documented, and no case of bTB spillback from wildlife to livestock has been confirmed. In this paper we assess the main risk factors of bTB spillover at the wildlife–livestock–human interface and suggest several research themes which could improve the control of the disease in the African context.

A total of 207 wild rodents were caught on nine pig farms, five chicken farms and five non-farm locations in Sweden and surveyed for a selection of bacteria, parasites and viruses. Lawsonia intracellularia and pathogenic Yersinia enterocolitica were only detected in rodents on pig farms (9% and 8% prevalence, respectively) which indicate that these agents are more likely to be transmitted to rodents from pigs or the environment on infected farms. Brachyspira hyodysenteriae (1%), Brachyspira intermedia (2%), Campylobacter jejuni (4%), Campylobacter upsaliensis (2%), leptospires (7%) and encephalomyocarditis virus (9%) were also detected from rodents not in contact with farm animals. Giardia and Cryptosporidium spp. were common, although no zoonotic types were verified, and Salmonella enterica was isolated from 1/11 mice on one farm but not detected by PCR from any of the rodents. Trichinella spp. and Toxoplasma gondii were not detected.

The aim of the study was to develop a procedure to remove spatial trends in irregularly spaced data, with trends partly due to regional differences. Median polish is often used on regularly spaced (lattice) data where column and row medians are removed. For irregularly spaced data a low-resolution map of the spatial locations is often used where data locations are assigned to the nearest lattice node followed by median polish. In this study regional polish was developed. The inverse distance weighted median was calculated based on observations from locations in the neighbourhood of the actual observation. The regional polish residual is obtained as the difference between the observed value and the weighted median. The regional polish procedure was applied to Salmonella Dublin data showing strong regional trends. Estimation of the range of influence between cattle herds with positive S. Dublin herd status was considerably improved with a stable parameter estimate and reduced standard error.

A series of simulation experiments was conducted to determine how estimates of the latent and infectious periods, number of neighbours (contacts) and population size impact on the predicted magnitude and distribution of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreaks in white-tailed deer in southern Texas. Outbreaks were simulated using a previously developed and applied susceptible–latent–infected–recovered geographic automata model. There were substantial differences in the estimated predicted number of deer and locations infected, based on the model parameters used (3779–119 879 deer infected and 227–6526 locations affected). There were also substantial differences in the spatial risk of infection based on the model parameters used. The predicted spread of FMD was found to be most sensitive to the assumed latent period and the assumed number of contacts. How these parameters are estimated is likely to be critical in studies on the impact of FMD spread in situations in which wildlife reservoirs might potentially exist.