Rabots Glaciär and Storglaciären, two small valley glaciers in the Swedish Arctic, have not behaved synchronously in response to recent climate change. Both glaciers advanced late in the 19th century and then began to retreat in response to a ~1˚C warming that occurred around 1910. By the mid-1980s the terminus and volume of Storglaciären had essentially stabilized, so it may have completed its response to the earlier warming. In contrast, ongoing thinning and retreat of Rabots Glaciär are substantial and suggest its response time is considerably longer. A time-dependent numerical model was used to investigate each glacier’s response to perturbations in mass balance. This modeling suggests that, for small perturbations, volume timescales for Storglaciären and Rabots Glaciär are ~125 and ~215 years, respectively. Another measure of response time (i.e. length response time) yields somewhat lower values for each glacier; however, what is significant is that by either measure and accounting for uncertainties, the response time for Rabots Glaciär is consistently about 1.5 times longer than that for Storglaciären. This implies that their non-synchronous behavior is likely due to differences in response times. The latter ultimately result from markedly different longitudinal geometries (particularly near the termini), velocity profiles and specific net balance gradients.

The response of glaciers to changing climate is explored with an atmosphere/glacier hierarchical modeling approach, in which global simulations are downscaled with an Arctic MM5 regional model which provides temperature and precipitation inputs to a glacier mass-balance model. The mass balances of Hubbard and Bering Glaciers, south-central Alaska, USA, are simulated for October 1994–September 2004. The comparisons of the mass-balance simulations using dynamically-downscaled vs observed temperature and precipitation data are in reasonably good agreement, when calibration is used to minimize systematic biases in the MM5 downscalings. The responses of the Hubbard (a large tidewater glacier) and Bering (a large surge-type glacier) mass balances to the future climate scenario CCSM3 A1B, a ‘middle-of-the-road’ future climate in which fossil and non-fossil fuels are assumed to be used in balance, are also investigated for the period October 2010–September 2018. Hubbard and Bering Glaciers are projected to have increased accumulation, particularly on the upper glaciers, and greater ablation, particularly on the lower glaciers. The annual net balance for the entire Bering Glacier is projected to be significantly more negative, on average (–2.0ma–1w.e., compared to –1.3ma–1w.e. during the hindcast), and for the entire Hubbard Glacier somewhat less positive (0.3ma–1w.e. compared to 0.4 ma–1w.e. during the hindcast). The Hubbard Glacier mass balances include an estimated iceberg calving flux of 6.5 km3 a–1, which is assumed to remain constant.

The more than 40 year record of net and seasonal mass-balance records from measurements made by the United States Geological Survey on South Cascade Glacier, Washington, and Wolverine and Gulkana Glaciers, Alaska, shows annual and interannual fluctuations that reflect changes in the controlling climatic conditions at regional and global scales. As the mass-balance record grows in length, it is revealing significant changes in previously described glacier mass-balance behavior, and both inter-glacier and glacier–climate relationships. South Cascade and Wolverine Glaciers are strongly affected by the warm and wet maritime climate of the northeast Pacific Ocean. Their net balances have generally been controlled by winter accumulation, with fluctuations that are strongly related to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Recently, warm dry summers have begun to dominate the net balance of the two maritime glaciers, with a weakening of the correlation between the winter balance fluctuations and the PDO. Non-synchronous periods of positive and negative net balance for each glacier prior to 1989 were followed by a 1989–2004 period of synchronous and almost exclusively negative net balances that averaged –0.8m for the three glaciers.

We apply the degree-day model to seven glacial regions that offer contrasting conditions and are well documented in the World Glacier Inventory. The regions are: Axel Heiberg Island in Arctic Canada; Svalbard; northern Scandinavia; southern Norway; the Alps; the Caucasus; and New Zealand. We estimate the average equilibrium-line altitude (ELA) for each half-degree latitude/longitude grid square from the median elevations of glaciers within the square and we extrapolate temperature from the UEA/CRU (Climate Research Unit of the University of East Anglia) gridded climatology. Using the degree-day model, we calculate annual accumulation at the ELA, equal to ablation at the ELA, and other quantities like summer mean temperature, length of melt season, balance gradients and the sensitivity of mass balance to temperature and/or precipitation changes. Glaciers can be characterized on a scale from cold-dry (Axel Heiberg Island) to warm-wet (New Zealand) corresponding to the contrast between maritime and continental climates. Mass-balance sensitivities to temperature and/or precipitation changes are relatively small for dry-cold climate and relatively high for warm-wet climate. We could extend the approach to other glacier regions but we note that there are large areas for which ELA data are not available as they are still not covered by the World Glacier Inventory.

This paper presents a comparative study at a small and highly glacierized catchment area in the Austrian Alps, where runoff under the extreme hot and dry conditions of summer 2003 was simulated based on two different glacier extents: the 2003 glacier extent and the 29% larger 1979 extent. Runoff was simulated applying the hydrological water balance model PREVAH at a high temporal resolution. For this purpose, the catchment area was subdivided into hydrological response units based on digital elevation model and land-cover data. The model was driven by meteorological data from the observatory at Hoher Sonnblick, situated at the highest point of the catchment area (3106ma.s.l.). We were interested in the effect the change in glacier extent would have on the annual and monthly water balance and the hydrograph of hourly discharges. Results of the 2003 and the hypothetical 1979 simulation show main differences in runoff for the period July–August depending on a higher ice-melt contribution. Due to the same meteorological input, both simulations calculate the same snow accumulation and snowmelt. Annual discharge in 1979 would have been 12% higher and hourly runoff up to 35% higher than in 2003.

In order to investigate the effect of changing precipitation type on glacier discharge due to air-temperature changes, the relation between summer snowfall and runoff is surveyed for the Vernagtbach basin, Austria, (2640–3630ma.s.l.; ~72% glaciated) for the period 1976–2005. Precipitation data were evaluated for each ablation season with respect to amount and type; the latter derived mainly from daily photographs of the catchment, but validated over 4 years with additional meteorological data. Winter snowfall amounts were determined on the basis of mass-balance measurements. Average ablation period air temperature showed a rise of 1.5 K from 1976 to 2005, and runoff increased from about 1100 mmw.e. to 2200 mmw.e. Snowfall amounts during the ablation period decreased between 1976 and 1991, but increased from 1992 to 2005, indicating a large year-to-year variation. The number of days with snowfall varies even more, with no clear trend discernible. The evolution of runoff is only partly explained by precipitation type during the ablation season, and accumulation amounts during winter deliver a not unambiguous picture. More important is the development of the ablation area from about 20% of glacier size in the 1970s to 100% in 2003.

A detailed analysis of the spatial and temporal changes in mean seasonal and annual surface air temperature (SAT) in the Arctic is presented mainly for the period 1951–2005. Mean seasonal and annual homogenized and complete series of SAT from up to 35 Arctic stations were used in the analysis. The focus in this paper is on the 11 years 1995–2005, a period which saw dramatic warming in the Arctic (>1˚C for annual values in relation to the 1951–90 mean). An abrupt rise in SAT occurred in the mid-1990s and was most pronounced in autumn and winter (>2˚C). The greatest warming in the period 1995–2005 occurred in the Pacific and Canadian regions (>1˚C), while the lowest was in the Siberian region (0.82˚C). This period has been the warmest since at least the 17th century. In particular, 2005 was an exceptionally warm year (>2˚C in relation to the 1951–90 mean) and was warmer than 1938, the warmest year in the 20th century. The seasonal and annual trends of the areally averaged Arctic SAT for the periods 1936–2005, 1951–2005 and 1976–2005 are positive, with the exception of winter and autumn for the first period. The majority of trends calculated for the last two periods are statistically significant. While there are varying opinions about the forces driving the present warming, it seems likely that the marked rise in SAT in the mid-1990s (mainly from 1994 to 1995) was caused by (i) a set of natural factors, (ii) non-linear effects of greenhouse-gas loading, or (iii) the combined effect of these two groups of factors.

In the summer of 2004, a firn profile, 18.3 m long, extending down to glacier ice, was recovered in the accumulation area of the largest glacier, Baishui No. 1, on Yulong mountain, the southernmost glacier-covered area in mainland Eurasia. Multivariate empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and statistical correlation analyses of major-ion data from the profile demonstrate that three distinct types of ionic material contribute to the chemical characteristics of firn in this monsoonal region: material of marine origin, which is transported by the Indian southwest monsoon; crustal materials, which come from local sources; and anthropogenic pollutants, which are produced by industrial and agricultural activities in South Asia. Although the influence of post-depositional processes on the seasonal isotopic and soluble ionic compositions is significant, dust layers in the firn profile are clearly visible. Due to the effects of meltwater percolation, the dust layers generally coincide with late-summer snow surfaces. We therefore use the dust layers, combined with the seasonal variations of electrical conductivity (EC), Ca2+ and Mg2+, to establish a depth/age scale for the firn profile. The reconstructed net accumulation has a significant negative correlation with the temperature at Lijiang, whereas the correlation between the net accumulation and the precipitation amount at Lijiang is weak. Although the δ18O time series of the firn profile was modified significantly by meltwater percolation, the correlation between annual mean δ18O values and the Indian southwest monsoon index (WSI1) is significant. This result suggests that δ18O records from monsoon-influenced temperate glaciers can provide a valuable record of past variations of the Indian southwest monsoon.

We report on changes to the snowpack of Ürümqi glacier No. 1, eastern Tien Shan, China, resulting from climate change between 1961 and 2005. Data from more than 120 snow pits were used to investigate temporal changes in the snow stratigraphy for three periods 1961–62, 1980–83 and 2002–05. Both the thickness and structure of the snow were found to be significantly altered by climatic warming. The proportion of coarse-grained firn, which is usually formed by infiltration water, was found to have increased from 40% to 65% over the period 1961–2005, and the distribution of the glacier zones also changed significantly, with all boundaries moving up-slope. The recrystallization–infiltration zone disappeared in 1989. The mean ablation rate over the melt season increased by ~26% from 1962 to 1980 at the west branch site and by ~75% from 1980 to 2004 at the east branch site.

Winter accumulation on glaciers in temperate to sub-arctic climate regimes is determined by both precipitation and snowdrifting during repeated events during any particular winter. Since glacier mass balance is calculated from the sum of winter and summer balance, and summer balance can be modeled with high accuracy, identification of the coupling between atmospheric circulation and winter balance is essential in order to fully understand the climate information hidden in the glacier mass-balance records. We have sampled snow cores from Storglaciären, Sweden, to examine identifiable chemical signatures to link these with up-wind sources in an attempt to quantify how much accumulation occurs under given atmospheric conditions. The snow samples reveal that several different chemical signatures occur but that identifying their source is not trivial, although only few but distinct sources exist. The relationship between the identified strata of a given signature is difficult to couple to recorded precipitation events because the crucial timing of deposition is lacking in our investigation. If time control on snow deposition is available, the combination of snow chemistry, meteorological and climatological data is a promising tool for evaluating the coupling between snow accumulation and atmospheric circulation.

Estimates of glacier contributions to future sea-level rise are often computed from mass-balance sensitivities derived for a set of representative glaciers. Our purpose is to investigate how mass-balance projections and sensitivities vary when using different approaches to compute the glacier mass balance. We choose Storglaciären, Sweden, as a test site and apply five different models including temperature-index and energy-balance approaches further varying in spatial discretization. The models are calibrated using daily European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts re-analysis (ERA-40) data. We compute static mass-balance sensitivities and cumulative mass balances until 2100 based on daily temperatures predicted by a regional climate model. Net mass-balance sensitivities to a +1 K perturbation and a 10% increase in precipitation spanned from –0.41 to –0.61 and from 0.19 to 0.22ma–1, respectively. The cumulative mass balance for the period 2002–2100 in response to the climate-model predicted temperature changes varied between –81 and –92m for four models, but was –121m for the fully distributed detailed energy-balance model. This indicates that mass losses may be underestimated if temperature-index methods are used instead of detailed energy-balance approaches that account for the effects of temperature changes on all energy-balance components individually. Our results suggest that future glacier predictions are sensitive to the choice of the mass-balance model broadening the spectrum in uncertainties.

Comparison of historic maps and aerial and ground-based photographs for the small cirque glaciers and glacierets of Rocky Mountain National Park in the northern Front Range of Colorado, USA, indicates modest change during the 20th century. The glaciers retreated through the first half of the 20th century, advanced slightly from the mid-1940s to the end of the century and have retreated slightly since. High interannual variability in area and temporal gaps in data complicate the trends. Local climate records indicate a lack of systematic change between 1950 and 1975, but significant warming afterwards. Local topographic effects (e.g. wind redistribution of snow and avalanching) are important influences. These small glaciers respond to changes in regional climate; summer temperature alone is a good predictor of the mass balance of Andrews Glacier (r = -0.93). Spring snowfall is also an important factor. That winter precipitation is not statistically significant supports the notion that these small glaciers gain much snow from wind drift and avalanching, making winter snow accumulation almost indifferent to variations in direct snowfall. Less than expected glacier retreat may be due to increased summer cloudiness.

Long-term trends, interannual and intra-seasonal variability in the mass-balance record from Djankuat glacier, central Greater Caucasus, Russia, are related to local climate change, synoptic and large-scale anomalies in atmospheric circulation. A clear warming signal emerged in the central Greater Caucasus in the early 1990s, leading to a strong increase in ablation. In the absence of a compensating change in winter accumulation, the net mass balance of Djankuat has declined. The highest value of seasonal ablation on record was registered in the summer of 2000. At the beginning of the 21st century these trends reversed. Ablation was below average even in the summer of 2003, which was unusually warm in western Europe. Precipitation and winter accumulation were high, allowing for a partial recovery of net mass balance. The interannual variability in the components of mass balance is weakly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Scandinavian teleconnection patterns, but there is a clear link with the large-scale circulation anomalies represented by the Rossby pattern. Five synoptic categories have been identified for the ablation season of 2005, revealing a strong separation between components of radiation budget, air temperature and daily melt. Air temperature is the main control over melt. The highest values of daily ablation are related to the strongly positive NAO which forces high net radiation, and to the warm and moist advection from the Black Sea.

Temperature variation on the Tibetan Plateau over the last 1000 years has been inferred using a composite δ18O record from four ice cores. Data from a new ice core recovered from the Puruogangri ice field in the central Tibetan Plateau are combined with those from three other cores (Dunde, Guliya and Dasuopu) recovered previously. The ice-core δ18O composite record indicates that the temperature change on the whole Tibetan Plateau is similar to that in the Northern Hemisphere on multi-decadal timescales except that there is no decreasing trend from AD 1000 to the late 19th century. The δ18O composite record from the northern Tibetan Plateau, however, indicates a cooling trend from AD 1000 to the late 19th century, which is more consistent with the Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction. The δ18O composite record reveals the existence of the Medieval Warm Period and the Little Ice Age (LIA) on the Tibetan Plateau. However, on the Tibetan Plateau the LIA is not the coldest period during the last millennium as in other regions in the Northern Hemisphere. The present study indicates that the 20th-century warming on the Tibetan Plateau is abrupt, and is warmer than at any time during the past 1000 years.

The effect of climate change in the 20th century is investigated based on measured mass-balance data. Annual, winter and summer mass balances on Claridenfirn, Switzerland, (since 1914/15) Storglaciären, Sweden, (since 1945/46) Storbreen, Norway, (since 1948/49) Glacier de Sarennes, France, (since 1948/49) and Vernagtferner, Austria, (since 1965/66) are studied with air temperature at high-altitude stations and the longest records of solar global radiation in Europe. The mean mass balances of these glaciers during the 20th century were mostly negative except for the first two decades. The fluctuating mass balance reaches the minimum (largest loss) and maximum (almost equilibrium) around 1940 and 1980, respectively, with a drastic loss in the last 15 years. These variations are mostly steered by the variation in summer mass balance. The change in the summer mass balance is determined to 72% by temperature and the remaining 28% by solar radiation. During the colder period (e.g. 1960–80), the reduction in solar radiation counteracted the warming trend due to the greenhouse effect. Since 1990 the greenhouse effect of terrestrial radiation and the global brightening effect of solar radiation have both been acting to accelerate the melt, resulting in the unprecedented mass loss of the observational era. The glacier mass balance during the 20th century clearly reacted towards temperature and solar radiation changes, which reflected the greenhouse effect and aerosol and cloud variations.

Continuous measurements of the radiation budget and meteorological components, along with frequent snow-pit work, were performed in Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan, during two winters from 2003 to 2005. The measured relationships between broadband albedos and the mass concentration of snow impurities were compared with theoretically predicted relationships calculated using a radiative transfer model for the atmosphere–snow system in which different types (in light absorption) of impurity models based on mineral dust and soot were assumed. The result suggests that the snow in Sapporo was contaminated not only with mineral dust but also with more absorptive soot. A comparison of the measured relationships between broadband albedos and snow grain size for two different layers with the theoretically predicted relationships revealed that the visible albedo contains information about the snow grain size in deeper snow layers (10 cm), and the near-infrared albedo contains only surface information. This is due to the difference in penetration depth of solar radiation into snow between the visible and the near-infrared wavelengths.

During approximately the past five decades, changes in snow cover, mountain glaciers, frozen ground (including permafrost), sea ice and river ice have been observed in China. However, most data were published in Chinese and thus unknown to the international communities. Here we review these published results to show an overview of cryospheric changes in China for the last ~50 years. Long-term variability of snow cover over the Qinghai–Xizang (Tibetan) Plateau (QXP) is characterized by large interannual variability superimposed on a continuously increasing trend. Glacier changes in western China vary remarkably in different regions. Although in most mountains the glaciers display a retreating trend (~80%) or have even vanished, some glaciers (~20%) are still advancing. Frozen ground (including permafrost) has experienced a rapid decay since the 1980s, and these changes are occurring both in the QXP and in the cold regions of north China. Sea-ice areas in the Bohai and north Yellow Seas have been shrinking since the 1970s. Interannual variations possibly relate to the solar cyles, and sea-ice extent extremes relate to El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The freeze-up and break-up dates of river ice in north China in the 1990s are, on average, 1–6 days later and 1–3 days earlier, respectively, than the 1950s–1990 mean. Frozen duration and the maximum thickness of river ice are, respectively, 4–10 days shorter and 0.06–0.21cm thinner in the 1990s than the average.

Self-organizing maps (SOMs) provide a powerful, non-linear technique to optimally summarize a complex geophysical dataset using a user-selected number of ‘icons’ or SOM states, allowing rapid identification of preferred patterns, predictability of transitions, rates of transitions, and hysteresis in cycles. The use of SOMs is demonstrated here through application to a 24 year dataset (1973–96) of monthly Antarctic sea-ice edge positions. Variability in sea-ice extent, concentration and other physical characteristics is an important component of the Earth’s dynamic climate system, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere where annual changes in sea-ice extent (temporarily) double the size of the Antarctic cryosphere. SOM-based patterns concisely capture the spatial and temporal variability in these data, including the annual progression of expansion and retreat, a general eastward propagation of anomalies during the winter, and sub-annual variability in the rate of change in extent at different times of the year (e.g. retreat in January is faster than in November). There is also often a general seasonal hysteresis, i.e. monthly anomalies during cooling follow a different spatial path than during warming.

Ice phenology (freeze-up, break-up and duration) was monitored for five seasons between autumn 2001 and spring 2006 at 11 small, shallow ponds in the boreal forest of central Alaska, USA. The sequence in which freeze-up (FU; day of 100% ice cover) and break-up (BU; day of zero ice cover) occurred at the 11 ponds showed moderately high to very high coherence each season. This was probably due to FU and BU being poorly correlated with pond morphometry (area, depth). BU is strongly correlated with April mean air temperature; a ±1˚C change in mean April air temperature is equivalent to a ±1.86 day change in BU. FU and air-temperature relationships are inconclusive, primarily because post-FU warm intervals in two autumns cause an anticorrelation between mean September air temperature and FU. Mean ice duration varies between 205 and 225 days, and is strongly correlated with maximum ice thickness through its effect on BU. A ±10mm change in maximum ice thickness will cause a ±0.6 day change in ice duration. Maximum ice thickness and ice composition (snow ice, congelation ice) also have a strong influence on break-up when all data from all ponds and all years are considered. The predictability of FU and BU sequence, the minor role of morphometry in FU and BU, the strong role of April mean air temperature in BU, and the role of maximum ice thickness in duration suggests that these ponds would be good sites for continued long-term observation of phenology and the influence of weather/climate variation and change, and for freeze-up/break-up process studies, particularly the role of ice composition and albedo.

Systematic temperature observations were not undertaken in Norway until the early 19th century, and even then only sporadically. Climate-proxy data may be used to reconstruct temperatures before this period, but until now there have not been any climate proxies available for late winter. This situation has recently changed, as a diary containing historical ice break-up data from a farm near lake Randsfjord in southeastern Norway has been discovered. These data, together with observations from lake Mjøsa in the same region, make it possible to reconstruct temperature back to 1758. The reconstructed series, combined with instrumental series from the area near the lake, were merged into one composite time series covering the period 1758–2006. The lowest temperatures are seen during the Dalton sunspot minimum in the early 19th century. The 20th century was 1.3˚C warmer than the 19th century, whereas the 19th century was 0.4˚C warmer than the last 43 years of the 18th century. During the period 1758–1850, the mean temperature was 1.4˚C lower than the mean value of the 20th century. The warmth observed in the 1990s and at the start of the 21st century is unprecedented during the whole series.