Evaluating the ability of anthropogenic habitats to serve as surrogates for natural habitats is an increasingly relevant issue in conservation biology. This issue is especially urgent in tropical coastal wetlands that support large concentrations of migratory shorebird populations and are under pressure from development. Here we evaluated the species composition, abundance, and habitat use of Nearctic migratory shorebirds using recently harvested aquaculture ponds during two non-breeding seasons at shrimp farms surrounding Bahía Santa María (BSM), northwestern Mexico. We also estimated shorebird densities at intertidal units in BSM during and after the harvesting season to explore the connectivity with shrimp farms. Over 25,000 individuals of 25 shorebird species used the surveyed farms (∼13% of shrimp-farm development in BSM; 2014–2015: 10 farms, 994 ha; 2015–2016: 8 farms, 924 ha) during the harvest season. The most abundant species were: Western Sandpiper Calidris mauri, Willet Tringa semipalmata, Marbled Godwit Limosa fedoa, dowitchers Limnodromus spp., Black-necked Stilt Himantopus mexicanus and American Avocet Recurvirostra americana. Numbers of birds decreased as the harvest cycle progressed. Most birds (> 70%) were foraging on the ponds, regardless of tidal stage, while numbers increased during high tide for the most abundant species. At surveyed intertidal areas, shorebird densities were overall similar within and between non-breeding seasons. These results indicate that shrimp farms offer ephemeral but consistent foraging habitats used by non-breeding shorebirds, even in vast coastal wetlands offering a high availability of natural intertidal mudflats. Assuming a similar shorebird use in other shrimp ponds not surveyed within BSM, a significant proportion (> 1% of the biogeographic population) of Willet, Marbled Godwit, and Western Sandpiper, as well as imperilled Red Knot Calidris canutus, might use shrimp farms throughout the harvesting season. Before including current semi-intensive shrimp farms within management plans of BSM, further research is mandatory to assess their utility as alternative foraging habitats for shorebird conservation at tropical areas.

The near-threatened Lilian’s Lovebird Agapornis lilianae is a small parrot endemic to the Zambezi basin in south-east Africa. The species has a fragmented distribution predominantly within mopane woodlands and is widely referred to as a mopane specialist. The harvesting of mopane trees for charcoal production and timber are having widespread impacts on this woodland habitat, raising concerns over its capacity to support biodiversity. This study aimed to understand the key drivers determining the occurrence of Lilian’s Lovebird in the mopane woodlands of Zambia, focusing particularly on aspects of woodland structure, including the size and density of trees. We used a MaxEnt species distribution model based on historical species occurrence data, to inform selection of 116 survey plots in the Luangwa, Luano and Zambezi valleys. Each plot was sampled for Lilian’s Lovebirds and woodland structure described. Occurrence of Lilian’s Lovebird was found to be positively associated with the size of mopane trees (both height and diameter at breast height) suggesting that large ‘cathedral’ mopane trees provide a key resource for the species and that conservation efforts should focus on the protection of sites containing large trees. No Lilian’s Lovebirds were recorded in areas where they previously occurred to the west of Lower Zambezi National Park, and there was an absence of ‘cathedral’ mopane habitat in this area.

Lake Junín is famous for the abundance and diversity of breeding, staging and wintering waterbirds. The lake supports the entire world population of three species or subspecies: Junín Grebe Podiceps taczanowskii, Junín Rail Laterallus tuerosi and the endemic subspecies of the White-tufted Grebe Rollandia rolland morrisoni. Surveys undertaken in the 1930s, 1960s, 1970s and 1980s confirmed the lake’s importance in the Andes, however there has been no recent assessment of its waterbird community. We undertook waterbird counts between 6 and 20 February 2014 from the lakeshore and by boat. Despite using differing survey methods, we nevertheless conclude that the relative abundance of waterbird species has changed dramatically compared to earlier counts. Most notably, the Junín Grebe has experienced a major decline since the 1930s when the species was considered extremely abundant and another native fish-eating species the White-tufted Grebe also appears to have declined. In contrast the Northern Silvery Grebe Podiceps juninensis, classified as ‘Near Threatened’, has apparently become more abundant. Numbers of Puna Teal Spatula puna and Common Gallinule Gallinula galeata seem to have crashed, presumably reflecting the general loss of submerged vegetation. In spite of a major decline in waterbirds overall, the Junín area holds numbers of migratory shorebirds, perhaps as a consequence of local hunting restrictions and awareness campaigns. Lake Junín is a candidate for listing on the Montreux Record under the Ramsar Convention as a wetland showing serious change in ecological character. Management planning should proceed to balance conflicting interests at the lake. Actions to re-establish a clear water column by reducing eutrophication (from settlements in the catchment) as well as sedimentation and heavy metals (from upstream mining) will contribute to improving ecological functions and to secure waterbirds including the endemics.

Habitat loss and fragmentation, especially due to agriculture expansion, pose the main threats to biodiversity conservation. While some species are able to survive and proliferate in human-modified habitats (winner species), others are highly dependent on well-preserved habitats, being more vulnerable to extinction (losers). Many raptors can be considered loser species due to their high trophic position, large home ranges, and low reproductive rates. Consequently, this group is frequently used to reflect the environmental quality of habitats and the biodiversity status of communities. Here we describe the diurnal raptor assemblages found in shaded-cocoa agroforests (cabrucas) of Southern Bahia, Brazil, and the determinants of raptor occupancy in this system. We systematically surveyed diurnal raptors in 16 cabruca sites using complementary sampling methods – active search, playback, and point-count – and modeled species occupancy using covariates related to vegetation structure, landscape, management intensity, and biological traits (body mass, trophic level, and diet specialisation). We found a high number of species (at least 18) as able to use cabrucas and a negative relationship between species occupancy and the degree of diet specialisation. Thus, our results suggest that cabrucas have a high potential to mitigate the effects of forest loss and fragmentation on diurnal raptors, but this system alone may not support complete assemblages of this group. It highlights the need for the maintenance of forest remnants in the landscapes to increase species diversity at a regional scale and to assure the conservation of this group in Southern Bahian Atlantic Forest.

Conservation plans for waterbirds in periodically flooded wetlands should be based on a deep understanding of the relationship between habitat availability and the hydrological regime. Using waterbird surveys and remotely sensed images, we investigated how habitat availability for wintering waterbirds was regulated by seasonal water level fluctuation at Shengjin Lake in the lower Yangtze River floodplain, which is an important wintering area along the East Asian-Australasian Flyway. We recorded 52 waterbird species during three field surveys, and categorised them into four groups based on their foraging preferences: grassland, mudflats, shallow water, or deep water. Habitat availability for the four groups was significantly influenced by fluctuations in water level. Habitat for deep-water feeders dominated the lake throughout the year, despite contracting during the wintering season. Water recession during winter exposed more diverse riparian habitats that showed high spatial heterogeneity at the landscape level, with the Upper Lake providing the most suitable habitats for the most diverse and abundant waterbirds. It is worth noting that the water level was regulated highly for aquaculture during the early wintering period, impeding access to suitable habitats for the early-arriving waterbirds that foraged in the riparian mudflats and grassland. Furthermore, rapid water recession from the opening of a sluice gate allowed the exposed moist mudflats to dry up quickly, reducing its suitability for shorebirds and cranes. For effective wintering waterbird conservation in the ephemeral lacustrine wetlands in the Yangtze River floodplain, we suggest stepwise water recession plans, together with the recovery of the aquatic vegetation community and reduction in high-density aquaculture, to synchronise the exposure of foraging habitats with the migration phenology of different waterbird species.

Olrog’s Gull Larus atlanticus is an endemic species of the Atlantic coast of southern South America and is currently listed as ‘Near Threatened’ on the IUCN Red List. The species breeds in coastal wetlands of Buenos Aires and Chubut provinces of Argentina and during winter migrates northwards as far as southern Brazil. During the breeding season the species is considered to have a specialised diet, foraging mostly on crabs. However, during the non-breeding season the gull presents a wider dietary spectrum (including fish) as a result of a potential association with commercial and sport fishing activities. The main goal of this study was to analyse the habitat use and overlap with natural and anthropogenic food resources of juvenile Olrog’s Gull during the winter in Mar Chiquita Lagoon, Buenos Aires. Twenty-two GPS devices were deployed during the winters of 2013 and 2014. A total of 1,088 fixes was gathered by GSM (both seasons combined). Analysis showed that the individuals were (kernel 95%) distributed in a limited area along the mouth of the lagoon. The core area (kernel 50%) covered only 0.3 km2 and was located in the south of the mouth. The overlap between juveniles and crab densities was lower than expected, while the overlap between juveniles and fishing effort was higher than expected during weekdays and lower during weekends. These results are of value for the further development of marine conservation measures for wintering areas which have so far been somewhat neglected while addressing the conservation status of the species.

Human disturbance can have behavioural, physiological and population-level consequences on wildlife. Unregulated tourism is having a negative effect on the endangered Yellow-eyed Penguin Megadyptes antipodes on mainland New Zealand. Subantarctic Yellow-eyed Penguins are exposed to tourism on Enderby Island in the Auckland Islands group, 450 km south of New Zealand. Restrictions and guidelines for tourism are in place on Enderby Island, but there has been little study on the efficacy of these. We quantified behavioural responses of the Yellow-eyed Penguin on Enderby Island to human presence by documenting movement patterns and behaviour of penguins in the presence and absence of humans, through both controlled approaches and monitoring penguin behaviour in the presence of tourists. We used these data to model the effective approach distances for reducing disturbance. Human presence caused a significant drop in the probability of a successful transit to or from their nest, and significantly increased the time penguins spent alert and decreased the time spent preening. Modelling showed the distance from a human to a penguin is a significant predictor of the likelihood of a bird displaying disturbance behaviour, with the current minimum approach guideline of 5 m not sufficient for preventing disturbance. Our results indicate that the minimum approach guideline needs to be revised if the probability of disturbance is to be reduced. Modelling the appropriateness of minimum approach guidelines by predicting the probability of disturbance is a useful technique that could be applied to other species and systems. Worldwide, management guidelines need to be scientifically evaluated to ensure efficacy and cater for the more sensitive species affected.

An analysis of the extent of overlap between habitats of the Egyptian Vulture Neophron percnopterus during summer and winter in Iran, and Iranian protected areas, discovered slight overlap between the two. Our study aimed to survey suitable habitats of the Egyptian Vulture during summer and winter in Iran using MaxEnt, a species distribution modelling method, and compare the results with the locations and span of protected areas. Model fitness was assessed using the area under the ROC-plot and True Skill Statistics. We found that habitat suitability in Iran varies for the Egyptian Vulture during summer and winter. Summer visitors are scattered in the north and west of Iran, concentrated along the Zagros and Alborz mountain ranges. Winter visitors and residents are scattered in coastal areas in the south. Habitat protection for winter visitors was the greatest, with 10% of suitable habitat covered, while less than 10% of suitable habitat for residents and summer visitors fell within protected areas. The Egyptian Vulture is categorised as ‘Endangered’ on the IUCN Red List. Different environmental factors influence the suitability of habitat for the species. While some factors such as NDVI and anthropogenic disturbance influence all visitors in a similar way, the effects of others such as elevation and distance from protected areas vary for summer and winter visitors. Since designation of protected areas in Iran is mainly determined by the distribution of mammal species, protection of bird habitats is often overlooked. Suitable habitat for the species should be considered when selecting protected areas in future.

Human-wildlife conflicts are often partly due to biased human perceptions about the real damage caused by wildlife. While Griffon Vultures Gyps fulvus are obligate scavengers, 156 complaint reports about vultures attacking livestock were officially recorded over eight years (2007–2014) in France. We investigated whether this conflict could be explained by a change in vulture behaviour, or by a biased perception by farmers. If vultures became predators, as a consequence of density-dependent processes, we predicted that reports would concern mostly ante-mortem consumption of healthy livestock and would be temporally and spatially correlated to vulture population size and space use. Under the hypothesis of perception bias of farmers, we predicted that reports would concern mostly post-mortem consumption, and would be more numerous in areas where farmers are less familiar with vultures and where herds are less attended by shepherds. The spatio-temporal distribution of reports was not correlated with the vulture’s population trend and was not centred on the core area of vulture home range. In 67% of reports, vultures consumed post-mortem an animal that had died for other reasons. In 18% of reports, vultures consumed ante-mortem an animal that was immobile and close to death before vulture arrival. The fact that 90% of complaining farmers did not own vulture supplementary feeding stations and that 40% of these farms were located outside protected areas (where most education programmes take place) suggests that most farmers had little familiarity or personal knowledge of vultures. There was no shepherd witness present in 95% of the reports. Therefore, the hypothesis of a perception bias due to lack of knowledge was most likely to explain this vulture-livestock conflict rather than the hypothesis of a recent change in vulture feeding behaviour. Environmental education should be better included in conservation programmes and enhanced in areas where vultures are expanding to recolonise their former distribution range.

Since its rediscovery in 1998, two major threats have been mentioned for the enigmatic Austral Rail Rallus antarcticus: cattle management by burning grass and rushes and predation by American mink Neovison vison. Added to the lack of a protocol to monitor this secretive bird, ever-growing threats make it necessary to study its global situation in depth to take accurate and urgent management decisions. We firstly studied how threats to the Austral Rail currently impact their occupancy and relative density (RD) at a wetland scale and habitat features associated with its presence at survey site scale inside wetlands in Santa Cruz province, Argentina. We additionally developed a monitoring protocol to detect the rail effectively and promptly by studying responses to playback with two different vocalisations at different times of the day and season. Both threats evaluated were negatively related to occupancy and RD of the Austral Rail, especially mink presence appearing to have an additive effect. We propose American mink control as crucial for Austral Rail conservation, while it would also be necessary to conserve a portion of wetlands exempt from burning and cattle presence. At survey sites, its presence was positively related with c.1–1.5 m tall rushes, whilst rails avoided low- density rush areas that resulted after management of rushes with fire to create pasture. To detect rails, both vocalisations can be confidently used at any time of the day and season. The poor knowledge about species ecology, mismanagement of vegetation in wetlands, expansion of American mink in Patagonia, construction on two dams in the Santa Cruz river basin, added to the already modified humidity conditions due to global climate change, force us to suggest that the Austral Rail should be considered as globally ‘Endangered’ (EN), to ensure the consideration of the species in management decisions.

The Greater Spotted Eagle is an extremely rare species which is strongly associated with wetlands during the breeding period. The winter habitats of this vulnerable species have not been extensively studied so far, although eagles spend over one third of the year there, and these are therefore also crucial for the conservation of the species. We investigated the distribution of Greater Spotted Eagle wintering grounds in the Mediterranean Basin on the basis of telemetry data from individuals caught in breeding grounds, detailed species counts during wintering in Greece, and a literature search. We found that at least 300–400 individuals (c.15% of the European population) winter in the Mediterranean Basin, sometimes numbering a few dozen in particular river valleys. Individuals used on average 89.7 km2 home ranges for wintering. The Maxent model of wintering habitats performed with high reliability, indicating that most of the coastline along the Mediterranean Sea and some parts of the Black Sea are suitable for the wintering of this species. The distribution of coastal marshes was the most informative for the model. Compositional analyses done for home ranges of GPS tracked individuals and wintering sites in Greece showed the highest preference for salines and salt marshes but also a high preference for coastal lagoons and water courses. We link wetland preference with the availability of medium size prey, optimal for this species, and prey specialisation common to breeding sites.

Accurate assessments of population sizes and trends are fundamental for effective species conservation, particularly for social and long-lived species in which low reproductive rates, aging demographic structure and Allee effects could interact to drive rapid population declines. In the parrots (Order Psittaciformes) these life history characteristics have combined with habitat loss and capture for the pet trade to lead to widespread endangerment, with over 40% of species classified under some level of threat. Here we report the results of a population survey of one such species, the Yellow-naped Amazon, Amazona auropalliata, that is classified as ‘Endangered’ on the IUCN Red List. We conducted a comprehensive survey in June and July of 2016 of 44 night roosts of the populations in contiguous Pacific lowlands of northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua and compared numbers in Costa Rica to those found in a similar survey conducted in June 2005. In 2016 we counted 990 birds across 25 sites surveyed in Costa Rica and 692 birds across 19 sites surveyed in Nicaragua for a total population estimate of only 1,682 birds. Comparisons of 13 sites surveyed in both 2005 and 2016 in Costa Rica showed a strong and statistically significant decline in population numbers over the 11-year period. Assessment of group sizes approaching or leaving roosts indicated that less than 25% of groups consisted of three or more birds; there was a significantly higher proportion of these putative family groups observed in Nicaragua than Costa Rica. Taken together, these results are cause for substantial concern for the health of this species in a region that has previously been considered its stronghold, and suggest that stronger conservation action should be undertaken to protect remaining populations from capture for the pet trade and loss of key habitat.

This paper documents the catastrophic decline of the ‘Critically Endangered’ Fatu Hiva Monarch Pomarea whitneyi since 2000 and presents population dynamics and conservation actions for the species between 2008 and 2017. The Fatu Hiva Monarch conservation programme has prevented the extinction of the species thus far. However, after an initial increase in the population size within the management area between 2008 and 2012, recruitment subsequently declined. Improvements in the method of trapping to control cats in 2016 and 2017 coincided with encouraging results in terms of juvenile monarch survival rates, although two adult birds disappeared during the same period. The initial hypothesis, that the population would recover once the main threat, black (or ship) rat Rates Rattus predation, was effectively controlled in the breeding territories, has not proved to be correct. An alternative hypothesis assumes that cat predation, mainly on young birds, is limiting monarch recovery. Control of feral cats has been undertaken since 2010, but the implementation of a new trapping method (leg-hold traps) combined with a significant increase in cat trapping effort, has coincided with an increase in the number of cats culled, as well as monarch post-fledging survival in 2016 and 2017. For the first time in the project, no mortality has been observed for monarch chicks, fledged juveniles or immature birds. If this alternative hypothesis holds, we would expect to recruit young birds into the monarch population in the next year or two. First, this will reduce the likelihood that the Fatu Hiva Monarch will become extinct and second, provide a source population to either repopulate the island following the eradication of rats and cats or to translocate birds to a rat and cat free island.

The ‘Vulnerable’ Swinhoe’s Rail Coturnicops exquisitus is believed to occur in only two regions in Russia’s Far East and China’s Heilongjiang province, separated by more than 1,000 km. Recent observations suggest that the Amur region, situated between the two known populations, might be inhabited by this secretive species as well. As the species is rather similar in appearance and field characteristics to its Nearctic sister taxon, the Yellow Rail C. noveboracensis, and almost all field records relate to flushed individuals in flight, we aimed to complement the field observations by genetic evidence. Samples were obtained from four individuals and one eggshell and their mitochondrial cytochrome b genes were amplified and sequenced. The genetic analyses unequivocally confirmed that swab samples and eggshell were attributable to Swinhoe’s Rail, thus constituting the first known breeding record of this species for 110 years. It is therefore likely that the individuals observed in the field also belonged to this species. It seems possible that Swinhoe’s Rail is more widely distributed in the Amur region and was overlooked in the past, possibly due to a misleading description of its calls in the literature.

In conservation biology, population monitoring is a critical step, particularly for endangered groups, such as steppe birds in European agro-ecosystems. Long-term population monitoring allows for determination of species population trends and also provides insights into the relative roles that environmental variability and human activities have on priority species. Here, we compare the population trends of two sympatric, closely related farmland bird species, the Little Bustard Tetrax tetrax and Great Bustard Otis tarda, in a protected area of Central Spain, which is their main stronghold in Europe. Over 12 years of monitoring, the abundance of Little and Great Bustards shifted in opposite directions in our study area. Little Bustard abundance decreased significantly (both males [-56%], and harder-to-detect females [-55%]), while Great Bustard abundance increased significantly (1,800%). Future surveys should be more precise and frequent for Little Bustards to facilitate evaluation of their population status and trends. We recommend annual surveys in 2–3 important locations by region throughout the breeding range for Little Bustards, while for Great Bustard the current regional monitoring programmes would be sufficient.

Invasive rodents detrimentally affect native bird species on many islands worldwide, and rodent eradication is a useful tool to safeguard endemic and threatened species. However, especially on tropical islands, rodent eradications can fail for various reasons, and it is unclear whether the temporary reduction of a rodent population during an unsuccessful eradication operation has beneficial effects on native birds. Here we examine the response of four endemic land bird species on subtropical Henderson Island in the Pitcairn Island Group, South Pacific Ocean, following an unsuccessful rodent eradication in 2011. We conducted point counts at 25 sampling locations in 14 survey periods between 2011 and 2015, and modelled the abundance trends of all species using binomial mixture models accounting for observer and environmental variation in detection probability. Henderson Reed Warbler Acrocephalus taiti more than doubled in abundance (2015 population estimate: 7,194-28,776), and Henderson Fruit Dove Ptilinopus insularis increased slightly between 2011 and 2015 (2015 population estimate: 4,476–10,072), while we detected no change in abundance of the Henderson Lorikeet Vini stepheni (2015 population estimate: 554–3014). Henderson Crake Zapornia atra increased to pre-eradication levels following anticipated mortality during the operation (2015 population estimate: 4,960–20,783). A temporary reduction of rat predation pressure and rat competition for fruit may have benefitted the reed warbler and the fruit dove, respectively. However, a long drought may have naturally suppressed bird populations prior to the rat eradication operation in 2011, potentially confounding the effects of temporary rat reduction and natural recovery. We therefore cannot unequivocally ascribe the population recovery to the temporary reduction of the rat population. We encourage robust monitoring of island biodiversity both before and after any management operation to better understand responses of endemic species to failed or successful operations.

Three subspecies of Island Thrush Turdus poliocephalus were historically found in New Caledonia. All these subspecies were considered extinct until 1978, when T. p. xanthopus was rediscovered on two small islands, Néba (∼ 3.5 km2) and Yandé (∼ 13 km2). On Néba, we estimated the population at 44–58 individuals. This Island Thrush population is dependent on the coastal forest, the richest habitat for invertebrates. However, the coastal forest habitat has been degraded in quality and extent. The Island Thrush forages in the litter by removing leaves with its bill. Fruits (diameter < 10 mm), picked from trees and swallowed whole, are also a significant component of its diet. Néba and Yandé are currently free of two nest predator species, the black rat Rattus rattus and the New Caledonian Crow Corvus moneduloides. On Néba, a low breeding success rate of 15.4% was found. To ensure conservation of these relict thrush populations, two actions at least should be implemented: setting up a biosecurity programme to keep islands free of black rats and increasing the area of coastal forest. The latter could be done by cutting down coconut trees in abandoned groves and planting tree species used by the Island Thrush to provide shade, fruits, good leaf litter, and nest support.

The Raso Lark Alauda razae is a single island endemic confined to the island of Raso in the Cape Verde islands. It has been studied via short (11–20 day), similarly-timed visits every year from 2001 to 2017. These November/December visits have occurred towards the end of the main rainy period (August–October) in the Cape Verdes. Average clutch size ranged from zero (no nests found) to 3.57 in different years and was strongly correlated with rainfall in the three months preceding the year’s visit, but not with population size, which varied 25-fold during the study period. Since the nomadic pursuit of rain is not an option for the Raso Lark, the species adjusts clutch size according to conditions prevailing on Raso.

The ‘Critically Endangered’ White-winged Flufftail Sarothrura ayresi is regarded as one of the rarest and most threatened rallids in Africa. Due to the species’ low density, habitat preference, cryptic colouration, elusive behaviour and lack of auditory cues has resulted in it being one of the most challenging species to survey using traditional methods such as auditory surveys and rope dragging. Numerous data deficiencies exist regarding facets of the species’ ecology, distribution, habitat-use and population status. A stratified array of nine camera localities was used within high-altitude palustrine wetland habitat to ascertain if this non-invasive technique could successfully document the first estimate of site occupancy, fine scale habitat use and activity patterns of this very rare species. Our study accumulated a total of 626 camera days and eight independent sightings of White-winged Flufftail across the respective austral summer season. Furthermore, our study confirms the applicability of camera trapping to other rare and elusive rallid species. Our results confirm that White-winged Flufftail is a low-density habitat specialist species, with site occupancy influenced positively by basal and canopy vegetation cover and detection probability influenced negatively by water depth within associated wetland habitats. Activity pattern analyses displayed that peak activity occurred at dawn and dusk, which yielded the highest degree of activity overlap with the only other migratory rallid recorded, Spotted Crake Porzana prozana. Our study also recorded the first apparent territorial display behaviour noted for the species. Our study supports the need for conservation initiatives focused on securing contiguous sections of suitable wetland habitat in order to accommodate the persistence of this globally threatened species.

There is remarkably little documented information in the scientific literature on any of the 18 species of buttonquail as they are very difficult to observe in the wild. This lack of information has hampered informed conservation decision making. We undertook the first biome-wide survey for the fynbos endemic Hottentot Buttonquail Turnix hottentottus, using flush transect surveys covering 275 km. We used location data for sightings as well as from records reported by the bird-watching community and modelled distribution using MaxEnt. Encounters were restricted to the fynbos biome, and the top contributors to our prediction of suitable habitat were habitat transformation, slope and time since fire. We obtained a density estimate of 0.032 individuals per hectare which, across an estimated median range of 27,855 km2, provides a population estimate of 89,136 individuals. Given the extent of the range and the population estimate we suggest the IUCN Red List status could be ‘Vulnerable’, rather than ‘Endangered’. Agricultural and alien-vegetation encroachment means that the future of the species is certainly under threat and further studies are needed to inform conservation management.