A case-control study was performed in South Australia to determine if L. longbeachae infection was associated with recent handling of commercial potting mix and to examine possible modes of transmission. Twenty-five laboratory-confirmed cases and 75 matched controls were enrolled between April 1997 and March 1999. Information on underlying illness, smoking, gardening exposures and behaviours was obtained by telephone interviews. Recent use of potting mix was associated with illness (OR 4·74, 95% CI 1·65–13·55, P=0·004) in bivariate analysis only. Better predictors of illness in multivariate analysis included poor hand-washing practices after gardening, long-term smoking and being near dripping hanging flower pots. Awareness of a possible health risk with potting mix protected against illness. Results are consistent with inhalation and ingestion as possible modes of transmission. Exposure to aerosolized organisms and poor gardening hygiene may be important predisposing factors to L. longbeachae infection.

The purpose of this work was the molecular study of the virus strain that caused the last measles outbreak in Greece. Twenty-four saliva specimens were obtained from selected patients serologically confirmed as measles cases between December 2005 and March 2006. Measles virus (MV) detection was performed by a nested RT–PCR. The 447-bp segment of the N gene of these MV strains was used for genotyping. The N gene sequences of the Greek MV strains were identical to each other, therefore a phylogenetic tree was constructed using one representative MV (ThesGRE/06). Our data show that the MV strain which caused the 2005–2006 outbreak in Greece belongs to genotype D6, and differs by 0·68% from the New Jersey D6 strain and by 5·5% from the MV vaccine strain Edmonston B (U03656) belonging to genotype A.

Routine sources of information on infectious intestinal disease (IID) capture a fraction of the actual disease burden. Population studies are required to measure the burden of illness. A retrospective age-stratified cross-sectional telephone study was carried out in Malta in order to estimate the magnitude and distribution of IID at population level. A random sample of 3504 persons was interviewed by a structured questionnaire between April 2004 and December 2005. The response rate was 99·7%. From the study, the observed standardized monthly prevalence was 3·18% (95% CI 0·7–5·74) with 0·421 (95% CI 0·092–0·771) episodes of IID per person per year. The monthly prevalence was higher in the <5 years age group and in females aged 31–44 years. The mean duration of illness was 6·8 days and a median duration of 3 days. A bimodal seasonal distribution was observed with peaks in June–July and October–November.

A simulation model of a herd of grazing cattle, which has been developed to provide insight into the infection dynamics of E. coli O157 is described. The spatially explicit model enables the modelling of the infection transmission processes to be realistically addressed under field management conditions. The model is used to explore the efficacy of various potential control strategies in reducing the levels of within-herd infection. These measures include restricting the size of herds, niche engineering, improving housing hygiene and vaccination. While a vaccination strategy remains a hypothetical option, it has the potential to be particularly effective. It is likely that the most successful strategy will involve the implementation of a combination of measures.

We report attack rates and contact-related predictors among community contacts of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) cases from the 2003 Toronto-area outbreak. Community contact data was extracted from public health records for single, well-defined exposures to a SARS case. In total, 8662 community-acquired exposures resulted in 61 probable cases; a crude attack rate of 0·70% [95% confidence interval (CI) 0·54–0·90]. Persons aged 55–69 years were at higher risk of acquiring SARS (1·14%) than those either younger (0·60%) or older (0·70%). In multivariable analysis exposures for at least 30 min at a distance of ⩽1 m increased the likelihood of becoming a SARS case 20·4-fold (95% CI 11·8–35·1). Risk related to duration of illness in the source case at time of exposure was greatest for illness duration of 7–10 days (rate ratio 3·4, 95% CI 1·9–6·1). Longer and closer proximity exposures incurred the highest rate of disease. Separate measures of time and distance from source cases should be added to minimum datasets for the assessment of interventions for SARS and other emerging diseases.

This prospective, multicentre study was conducted between September and October 2003 in 38 French departments of internal medicine, infectious disease and hepatogastroenterology and included 406 consecutive HBV-infected patients (positive HBsAg), half of whom were HIV-infected (53%). The aim was to outline the main characteristics of hepatitis B virus (HBV)-human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) co-infected patients in French hospitals. HBV-HIV co-infected patients (85% were receiving HAART; mean CD4 count 447±245/μl, HIV RNA load <400 copies/ml, 67% of patients), compared to HIV-negative patients, were more often male, injecting drug users, HBeAg-positive and HCV-HIV co-infected (P<10−4). They underwent liver biopsy less often (31% vs. 51%, P<10−4), particularly those with severe immunodeficiency. They received anti-HBV treatment more often (75% vs. 45·7%, P<10−4), mainly lamivudine and tenofovir. Significant improvements in the management of such patients are awaited mainly in the appraisal of liver disease by either liver biopsy or non-invasive alternatives to liver biopsy.

The purpose of this study was to describe patterns of seroconversion to bovine leukaemia virus and to estimate the main parameters needed for future model building. A longitudinal study was carried out between February 1999 and November 2001 in seven commercial dairy farms in Argentina using 1535 lactating cows. Time-interval parameters were analysed using a parametric survival model with shared frailty, time until infection was analysed using a Bayesian interval-censoring survival model and the infection transmission parameter (β) was estimated by a generalized linear model. The reproduction ratio (R0) was calculated. In total, 1000 cows tested positive and 494 tested negative. The predicted median age at infection was 4·6 years for seroconverted cows. For infected herds, the proportion of positive calves was as high as for infected cows and showed a large proportion of infected breeding heifers. Peaks in the overall average incidence per season-year were observed during autumn and spring. Results reveal that the period around parturition is a high-risk period. Moreover, heavily infected herds seem to have an increased proportion of young stock infected. The overall β was estimated as 2·9/year (95% CI 1·9–3·7) and combined with a relatively long infectious period it resulted in a high reproductive ratio (R0=8·9). Therefore, a high effectiveness of control measures needs to be achieved to eradicate the disease.

We compared the burden of illness due to a spectrum of respiratory diagnostic categories among persons presenting in a sentinel general practice network in England and Wales during periods of influenza and of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) activity. During all periods of viral activity, incidence rates of influenza-like illness, bronchitis and common cold were elevated compared to those in baseline periods. Excess rates per 100 000 of acute bronchitis were greater in children aged <1 year (median difference 2702, 95% CI 929–4867) and in children aged 1–4 years (994, 95% CI 338–1747) during RSV active periods rather than influenza; estimates for the two viruses were similar in other age groups. Excess rates of influenza-like illness in all age groups were clearly associated with influenza virus activity. For common cold the estimates of median excess rates were significantly higher in RSV active periods for the age groups <1 year (3728, 95% CI 632–5867) and 5–14 years (339, 95% CI 59–768); estimates were similar in other age groups for the two viruses. The clinical burden of disease associated with RSV is as great if not greater than influenza in patients of all ages presenting to general practitioners.

The incidence of infection by mycobacteria, other than tubercle bacilli (MOTT) is increasing in the United Kingdom, Europe and the United States. These diseases increase morbidity and are an increasing public health concern. However, the epidemiology of disease due to these species is not well characterized. We used space–time clustering approaches and Generalized Linear Modelling to investigate the potential predictors of disease in cases of infection by organisms of the Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) and M. malmoense recorded in the north of England during 2000–2005. There was significant spatial and temporal clustering in juvenile cases of infection by MAC but not for cases of infection in adults by either species. There were no significant predictors of infection by M. malmoense or juvenile cases of M. avium. Incidence of disease caused by M. avium in adults was significantly related to health deprivation and weakly related to rainfall. We consider possible reasons for the difference in epidemiology in infection by M. avium in adults and juveniles.

The number of deaths attributable to influenza is believed to be considerably higher than the number certified by vital statistics registration as due to influenza. Weekly mortality data for Canada from the 1989/1990 to the 1998/1999 influenza seasons were analysed by cause of death, age group, and place of death to estimate the impact of influenza on mortality. A Poisson regression model was found to accurately predict all-cause, as well as cause-specific mortality, as a function of influenza-certified deaths, after controlling for seasonality, and trend. Influenza-attributable deaths were calculated as predicted less baseline-predicted deaths. In summary, throughout the 1990s there were on average just under 4000 deaths attributable to influenza annually (for an influenza-attributable mortality rate of 13/100 000 persons), varying from no detectable excess mortality for the 1990/1991 influenza season, to 6000–8000 influenza-attributable deaths for the more severe influenza seasons of 1997/1998 and 1998/1999. On average, 8% (95% CI 7–10) of influenza-attributable deaths were certified as influenza, although this percentage varied from 4% to 12% from year to year. Only 15% of the influenza-attributable deaths were certified as pneumonia, and for all respiratory causes, 40%. Deaths were distributed over most causes. The weekly pattern of influenza-certified deaths was a good predictor of excess all-cause mortality.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate Salmonella ELISA tests and a culture technique to determine Salmonella status using samples collected from commercial herds. Faecal samples from 15 finisher pigs on each of 40 swine farms were cultured for Salmonella. Sera from the same 600 pigs were analysed for the presence of antibodies to Salmonella by means of two different ELISA kits Salmotype (Salmotype® Labordiagnostik, Leipzig, Germany) and IDEXX (Herdchek* Salmonella; IDEXX Laboratories, Schiphol-Rijk, Noord-Holland, The Netherlands). The Salmotype ELISA test demonstrated a moderate ability to differentiate culture-positive pigs from culture-negative pigs while IDEXX was relatively poor in classifying those pigs correctly (The area under the curves were 0·79 and 0·65 for Salmotype and IDEXX respectively). The maximum value of sensitivity plus specificity was gained at the cut-off optical density (OD) [ges ]25% for Salmotype (sensitivity 0·65, specificity 0·84) and at the OD [ges ]9% for IDEXX (sensitivity 0·59, specificity 0·69). The maximum herd sensitivity and herd specificity was 0·64 (95% CI 0·49–0·79) and 0·72 (95% CI 0·59–0·86) for the Salmotype test and 0·73 (95% CI 0·59–0·87) and 0·62 (95% CI 0·47–0·77) for the IDEXX. Culture and the ELISA tests showed fair agreement at the herd level (κ=0·3, P<0·05). Likewise there was significant disagreement between the two ELISA tests at the pig level, but very good agreement between the two ELISA tests (κ=0·8, P<0·0001) at the herd level. The coating antigens in Salmotype and IDEXX represent only 48% of the antigens of Salmonella isolated in our study and need to be revised based upon the Salmonella serovar distribution in Ontario.

It is uncertain whether hospitalization among patients with congestive heart failure (CHF) increases during the influenza season. This retrospective cohort study used influenza surveillance data from the United States (1986–1987 to 1990–1991), clinical information from the Studies of Left Ventricular Dysfunction (SOLVD) database, and daily temperature data from the National Climatic Data Center to assess the effect of influenza season on hospitalizations in this cohort of patients. The overall hospitalization rate was higher during influenza seasons compared to non-influenza seasons [relative risk (RR) 1·08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·01–1·16]. Multivariable Cox modelling revealed an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1·11 for hospitalization during the influenza season (95% CI 1·03–1·20, P=0·005). Overall death rates were also higher during influenza seasons than non-influenza seasons (RR 1·09, 95% CI 0·97–1·21), but the corresponding adjusted HR for death was not significant (HR 1·01, 95% CI 0·98–1·24, P=0·11). Patients with CHF have a greater risk of hospitalization during the influenza season than in the non-influenza season, supporting the current belief that patients with CHF should be regarded as a high-risk group.

The aim of this study was to estimate the burden of infectious intestinal disease (IID) and cost of illness at the community level from a societal aspect. A retrospective, age-stratified cross-sectional telephone study was carried out in Malta in 2004–2005. The number of cases, resources used and cost of resources were computed. The resources involved direct costs (health-care services, stool culture tests, medicines and personal costs) and indirect costs (costs from lost employment by cases and caregivers). This study estimated 0·421 (95% CI 0·092–0·771) separate episodes of IID per person per year in Malta which corresponds to 164 471 (95% CI 35 941–301 205) episodes of IID per year or 450 (95% CI 98–825) episodes of IID each day. The largest proportion of cost is due to provision of health-care services with €10 454 901 [Maltese liri (Lm) 4 558 970] per year; followed by €963 295 (Lm 2 209 393) in lost productivity; €1 286 286 (Lm 561 078) in medicines; €152 335 (Lm 66 452) in stool culture testing and €71 487 (Lm 31 183) in personal costs, giving a total cost of illness of over €16 million (7 million Lm) per year. The burden and cost of IID are high enough to justify efforts to control the illness. Such estimates are important to assess the cost-effectiveness of proposed specific interventions.

A resurgence of Mycobacterium bovis infections in cattle in the United Kingdom since the 1980s has raised concern about risks to human health. Enhanced surveillance data for England, Wales and Northern Ireland between 1993 and 2003 of culture-positive human M. bovis cases identified 315 M. bovis infections; the mean annual number of cases was 28 (range 12–41). The most frequently reported exposures were consumption of unpasteurized dairy products 41/83 (49%) and exposure to cattle 45/123 (37%). Of all cases, 249 (83%) were born before 1960. Of 50 cases born after 1960, only 14 were born in the United Kingdom. Over the same time period the annual number of new herd infections increased from 332 to 1749 as derived from the UK State Veterinary Service database. In conclusion, despite a more than fivefold increase in cattle herd infections during the 1990s, there was no increase in reported human cases.

We describe the development of the HIV epidemic in Karonga District, Malawi over 22 years using data from population surveys and community samples. These data are used to estimate the trend in HIV prevalence, incidence and need for antiretroviral treatment (ART) using a simple mathematical model. HIV prevalence rose quickly in the late 1980s and early 1990s, stabilizing at around 12% in the mid-1990s. Estimated annual HIV incidence rose quickly, peaking in the early 1990s at 2·2% among males and 3·1% among females, and then levelled off at 1·3% among males and 1·1% among females by the late 1990s. Assuming a 2-year eligibility period, both our model and the UNAIDS models predicted 2·1% of adults were in need of ART in 2005. This prediction was sensitive to the assumed eligibility period, ranging from 1·6% to 2·6% if the eligibility period was instead assumed to be 1·5 or 2·5 years, respectively.

This paper describes sentinel laboratory surveillance of hepatitis C antibody testing in England. Demographic and test result data were supplemented by follow-up questionnaires sent to the requesting clinician. Between October 2002 and September 2003 almost 75000 anti-HCV tests were performed in eight sentinel centres. More males were tested than females and over half of those tested were aged 25–44 years. Overall 5·7% (3333/58144, range 2·8–7·7%) individuals tested positive. Follow-up questionnaire data showed that 82% (1043/1277) of the positives had injecting drug use reported as the main risk exposure. The majority of negative individuals were undergoing routine screening as recommended for specific patient groups. Most individuals were asymptomatic. Antibody prevalence was estimated to be 34% in current injecting drug users and 42% in former injectors. Comparing positives to routine national surveillance suggests that only 53% (1782/3333) of diagnosed cases were reported. Sentinel laboratory data can provide valuable supplementary data to national surveillance.

Studies of antenatal women form the predominant source of data on HIV-1 prevalence in Africa. Identifying factors associated with prevalent HIV is important in targeting diagnostic services and care. Between November 1997 and January 2000, 14 110 postnatal women from Harare, Zimbabwe were tested by ELISAs reactive to both HIV-1 and HIV-2; a subset of positive samples was confirmed with assays specific for HIV-1 and HIV-2. Baseline characteristics were elicited and modelled to identify risk factors for prevalent HIV infection. HIV-1 and HIV-2 prevalences were 32·0% (95% CI 31·2–32·8) and 1·3% (95% CI 1·1–1·5), respectively; 4% of HIV-1-positive and 99% of HIV-2-positive women were co-infected. HIV-1 prevalence increased from 0% among 14-year-olds to >45% among women aged 29–31 years, then fell to <20% among those aged >40 years. In multivariate analyses, prevalence increased with parity, was lower in married women than in single women, divorcees and widows, and higher in women with the lowest incomes and those professing no religion. Adjusted HIV-1 prevalence increased during 1998 and decreased during 1999. Age modified the effects of parity, home ownership and parental education. Among older women, prevalence was greater for women who were not homeowners. Among younger women, prevalence increased with parity and low parental education. None of these factors distinguished women co-infected with HIV-2 from those infected with HIV-1 alone. Prevalent HIV-1 infection is associated with financial insecurity and weak psychosocial support. The ZVITAMBO study apparently spanned the peak of the HIV-1 epidemic among reproductive women in Harare.

Surveillance is an important component of influenza control. This report describes the establishment and first results of the Korean Influenza Surveillance Scheme (KISS), an integrated clinical and laboratory surveillance network involving 622 public health centres (PHCs) and private clinics. Sentinel physicians reported cases of influenza-like illness (ILI) weekly and forwarded specimens for virus isolation and characterization. Influenza activity during the opening 2000–2001 season was milder and delayed compared with previous years. The ILI consultation rate corresponded well with the number of influenza virus isolates, both peaking in week 10 of 2001. Influenza A(H3N2) was the dominant isolate. The peak ILI consultation rate was higher in private clinics than in PHCs (5·04 vs 1·79 cases/1000 visits). An evaluation questionnaire generated potential enhancements to the scheme. KISS appears to represent the pattern of influenza activity accurately and will have a valuable role in monitoring and preventing epidemics in Korea.

Recently we identified hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 4 as the principle genotype among Lebanese thalassaemics. In an attempt to confirm the predominance of genotype 4 in Lebanon and perhaps in the Middle East, genotyping was attempted on 142 HCV-infected Lebanese patients from five different hospitals in the country. These included 38 HCV-positive patients with symptomatic liver disease who were referred to gastroenterologists and 104 HCV-positive patients with no symptoms of liver disease: 27 patients with thalassaemia, 30 patients on haemodialysis, 32 multi-transfused and 15 intravenous drug users. HCV genotyping was performed on PCR HCV RNA-positive samples using a commercial line probe assay (LiPA; Innogenetics, Ghent, Belgium). HCV genotype 4 is found to be the predominant genotype among HCV-infected Lebanese patients (ranging from 34·2% to 53·3%) followed by 1a (ranging from 12·5% to 43·3%) and 1b (ranging from 8·0% to 34·4%). In patients with symptomatic liver disease, however, genotype 4 (34·2%) was preceded by genotype 1a (39·5%). The predominance of HCV genotype 4 in our population (45·7%) confirms the predominance of HCV genotype 4 in Lebanon and most of the Arab countries in the Middle East but contrasts with data reported from non-Arab Middle Eastern Countries as can be seen from the literature review. Implications of genotyping for clinical outcome of HCV infection, response to treatment as well as for vaccine development are discussed.

The United States national mortality statistics and HIV/AIDS surveillance data were analysed to determine trends in encephalitis-associated deaths and to assess the impact of HIV infection on those deaths during 1979–1998, a period when ICD-9 codes were used for coding deaths in the United States. A total of 25 125 encephalitis deaths were reported; 4779 of them (19%) had concurrent HIV infection. Overall encephalitis death rates remained stable, but they increased for groups where HIV infection was common and declined or remained unchanged for others. For persons without HIV infection, the rates declined in all demographic groups. Encephalitis deaths in HIV-infected persons followed general trends for HIV deaths in the United States. The rates in the HIV-infected population were several hundred- to thousand-fold higher than in the HIV-uninfected population. HIV infection was largely responsible for the lack of overall decline in the considerable mortality associated with encephalitis in the United States during 1979–1998.