The 1986 Tax Reform Act (TRA) replaced non-synchronous tax year-ends with a common October 31 year-end for all mutual funds. After the TRA, we find that funds systematically accelerated the sale of losers prior to October 31. A similar pattern is not present for funds before the TRA, of for other types of institutions either befor or after the TRA. Examining stock returns in the first year the new TRA regulations became fully effective, we find evidence of a strong “November effect” for prior losers in which funds collectively had large holdings. Interestingly, fund managers appear to have learned from this experience. In subsequent years, our resuts suggest that funds were able to mitigate potential price pressures by having the foresight to spread tax-motivated sales over relatively long time horizons.

This paper examines the association between block ownership and market liquidity. Blockholders are believed to have access to private, value-relevant information via their roles as monitors of firms' operations. consistent with this, we find that firms with greater blockholder ownership, either by managers or external entities, have larger quoted spreads, effective spreads, adverse selection spread components, and smaller quoted depths.

This paper assesses the importance of the role of prices as aggregators of private information in the S&P 500 future market. We estimate primitive parameters of the Hellwig (1980) noisy rational expectations model, when both prices and terminal values are observable. The variance-covariance parameters governing futuers prices and terminal values can be inverted to obtain estimate of the primitive parmeters, including the precision of private infromation and the variance of liquidity-motivated trades. We also estimate coefficients in the linear price conjecture, weights that agents place on different sources of information, and the informativeness of prices. We find that the variance of the error term in agents' private signals is several orders of magnitude larger than the variance of liquidity-motivated trades. But, in a large market, prices are still so informative that the market as a whole appears to weight them more than prior beliefs.

This study examines the stock market forecasts and portfolio allocation decisions of small individual investors, based on survey data for 1987–1994. When investors are bullish, they increase their equity holdings; when investors are bearish, they decrease equity holdings. The surveyed investors are unable to time the stock market successfully. However, the shifts in their portfolios reflect past market movements and are consistent with positive feedback trading.

This paper empirically analyzes REIT mutual funds. We show that, contrary to mostmutual fund studies, the average and median alphas (net of expenses) are positive. We also findthat time-varying positive alphas are much more likely to occur when the real asset market is performing poorly, suggesting that managers add more value in down markets than in up markets. We examine the cross-sectional determinants of both standard alphas and the average of time-varing alphas and find that both increase with assets and turnover. Cross-sectinally, we find that actively managed funds have higher alphas than passively managed funds.

This paper studies the relation between fund performance and fund attributes in the Swedish market. Performance is measured as the alpha in a linear regression of fund returns on several benchmark assets, allowing for time-varying betas. The estimated performance is then used in a cross-sectinal analysis of the relation between performance and fund attributes such as past performance, flow, size, turnover, and proxies for expenses and trading activity. The results show that good performance occurs among small equity funds, low fee funds, funds whose trading activity is high and, in some cases, funds with good past performance.

This paper reviews and extends definitions and properties of the three classical performance statistics (the Sharpe Ratio, the Treynor Index, and Jensen's Alpha) by locating them in a more general framework: the Asymmetric Response Mode. This allows various notions of beta, which can be related to downside risk, to be employed, and includes, as special cases, a market timing model and the mean-variance CAPM. Due to the general lack of data on fund performance in practice, our emphasis is on small sample analysis where possible. We illustrate our results empirically using data on 15 U.S.-based emerging markets investment funds.

This study examines the Morningstar rating system as a predictor of mutual fund performance for U.S. domestic equit funds. We also compare the predictive abilities of the Morningstar rating system with those of alternative predictors. The results indicate findings that are robust across different samples, ages and styles of funds, and performance measures. First, low ratings from Morningstar generally indicate relatively poor future performance. Second, there is little statistical evidence that Morningstar's highest-rated funds outperform the next-to-highest and median-rated funds. Third, Morningstar ratings, at best, do only slightly better than the alternative predictors in forecasting future fund performance.

The investment advice encapsulated in the Value Line Investment Survey's timeliness rankings is evaluated from 1965 to 1996 through time-series factor regressions, as well as by comparing recommendations to benchmark portfolios corresponding to their size, book-to-market, and momentum characteristics. In addition, recommendations that have experienced recent earnings surprises are purged to eliminate the effects of post-earnings announcement drift. There is evidence that Value Line recommendations exhibit performance beyond what is predicted by existing models of expected return. However, once transactions costs have been accounted for, it is doubtful profitable abnormal returns could have been realized.